Trade down???? Are we in Bizarro World? (1 Viewer)

[Taker597]

I don’t know. That 1st year option on first round talent is pretty valuable. That has to be considered into the price.

It's really not valued by teams. It's more about drafting the player not a shiney 5th year option.

 

[Taker597]

Too little too late. Been saying trade down for years but they wanna blow picks every year

Instead of trading up for Davenport they should've traded down and maybe they would have a #2 reciever a lg and lb by now

This is how you draft like the Browns.


"Juat trade down". You'll find your player there. No you won't. The only way you find your particular player is either trading up or standing pat. You draft players by grade not pick selection. Trading down has to actually benefit us. Which you look at all the past years. They wouldn't.

Payton has already spoke about trading down in years past, but the scouting department(The best scouting in the league) dictated against it due to talent not being there or deals not working out.

Remember when the Patroits traded down nonstop in the mid 2000s. Where did that get them? Sub par talent and playoff exits till 2012. Patroits don't do that as much as they much more in the business of getting extra picks through trade or compensatory means

 

[TribuneUK]

It's really not valued by teams. It's more about drafting the player not a shiney 5th year option.

Don't break a much loved forum narrative, man, that's not kind.

It's like how I've read that our back up QBs are always worth high picks in trades to other teams, every year.

 

[sammymvpknight]

It's really not valued by teams. It's more about drafting the player not a shiney 5th year option.

How do you know it’s not valued?

 

[TribuneUK]

How do you know it’s not valued?

Conversely, how do you know it is?

I can claim that a slice of cheese in my fridge is valued in draft day trades, no one can prove or disprove it.

But the likelihood it isn't, until evidence emerges to the contrary. Much the same as for the fifth year option. I've yet to see it referenced outside a forum of hopeful fans whose team tends to hold late first round picks.

 

[livefromDC]

Well, apart from the clear examples given in the OP of us doing it under Payton in 2006 and 07.

True but that roster was devoid of any talent. So I think what Guillermo says applies.

 

[NeverGiveUP2]

I love the SP ML approach. I hate trading down. Extra Picks are for draft gurus to talk about. Build a SB team by getting One Stud as opposed to 2 pretty good players makes all kind of sense to me. And obviously the Saints as well

 

[sammymvpknight]

Conversely, how do you know it is?

I can claim that a slice of cheese in my fridge is valued in draft day trades, no one can prove or disprove it.

But the likelihood it isn't, until evidence emerges to the contrary. Much the same as for the fifth year option. I've yet to see it referenced outside a forum of hopeful fans whose team tends to hold late first round picks.

Because common sense says that having a player on a 5 year rookie contract is better than having one on a 4 year rookie contract. And it’s your option...if you win, you hit the lotto...if you lose, you cut bait without any dead money. It makes no sense to not value it...how much it’s valued is debatable but let’s not disregard common sense here.

 

[dutar76]

It's really not valued by teams. It's more about drafting the player not a shiney 5th year option.

If the new 5th year option pay scale passes with the new CBA, it won't be near as valuable. The price of that 5th year could go way up making it more like the Franchise tag or Transition tag. And if I understand it correctly, it could be retroactive and possibly effect a 5th year option on Lattimore, Ramczyk, and Davenport.

In other words, 1st round picks could be devalued some. Our best chance would be for a team like the colts or dolphins to really want a player (say Jordan Love... likely a QB in any event) that they believe either we would choose or some team in between us and their next pick might choose. If they're after a QB, then the draft points system isn't all that relevant.

As for trading back, I could actually see it this year more than other years. The value at TE, CB, S, and especially WR appears to be in the 2nd round. PIcking up 2 immediate starters/contributors could be more tempting in this draft than in others.

But more likely, I see somebody falling to us at 24 that we have graded as a high round pick and either staying put or even moving up to get them. If we stay put however, I see us making a strong push (as usual) to get into the 2nd round.

 

[TribuneUK]

Because common sense says that having a player on a 5 year rookie contract is better than having one on a 4 year rookie contract. And it’s your option...if you win, you hit the lotto...if you lose, you cut bait without any dead money. It makes no sense to not value it...how much it’s valued is debatable but let’s not disregard common sense here.

Common sense it may seem to be, but it remains only a perceived advantage. And meanwhile evidence abounds that no team has traded up into the first round on the basis of getting a fifth year option, as opposed to the very real prospect of being beaten to that player by another team picking before their original pick. And common sense includes believing the evidence presented to you.

 

[TribuneUK]

True but that roster was devoid of any talent. So I think what Guillermo says applies.

Oh, I think the more recent trends applies too, but it wasn't correct to say that this front office doesn't trade down, when the OP clearly pointed out it has done so.

 

[dutar76]

Common sense it may seem to be, but it remains only a perceived advantage. And meanwhile evidence abounds that no team has traded up into the first round on the basis of getting a fifth year option, as opposed to the very real prospect of being beaten to that player by another team picking before their original pick. And common sense includes believing the evidence presented to you.

I think simple logic can clear this up some. The most expensive 2nd contract positions are generally QB, EDGE, LT, CB, and WR.
The blue-chip's at those positions are generally taken early in round one. So when a team trades to move up that high, it's "moving up to get a player", not a 5th year option. I'd guess that the 5th year option actually gets used on players drafted in the mid-to-late 1st round more than the early first round. (us with Rankins, Peat, etc...) Big time QBs (when they work out) generally get multi-year extensions before their rookie deals run out. Same with the big time OT's, CB's, WR's, and Edge rushers. It's those 2nd tier guys that a 5th year option applies more often.

I agree that a 5th year option probably has more perceived value to fans and media than it does when teams are considering moving up in most cases.

I don't even know how to look it up, but I'd like to see the #'s on how many times a 5th year option has been picked up on QBs... I'd also like to see how many times it's been picked up on a player that a team traded back into the 1st round to get.

 

[sammymvpknight]

Common sense it may seem to be, but it remains only a perceived advantage. And meanwhile evidence abounds that no team has traded up into the first round on the basis of getting a fifth year option, as opposed to the very real prospect of being beaten to that player by another team picking before their original pick. And common sense includes believing the evidence presented to you.

Alvin Kamara could make $8-10 million more than Ryan Ramczyk in 2021. They were drafted in the same draft class. You still refuse to believe that there isn’t a benefit of having a 5th year option? Get out of here

 

[TruSaint]

I am going to tell you a secret about the saints that I thought was obvious. They don’t have this secret plan where they are a trade up team, or they aren’t one that wants to trade back, if a crazy value like the 5th overall player on their big board drops to 19 they’ll trade up for him, if they stay where they are and the 10th rated player on their board falls to 24 they are gonna take him not trade back. Their minds aren’t made up before the draft

 

[TribuneUK]

Alvin Kamara could make $8-10 million more than Ryan Ramczyk in 2021. They were drafted in the same draft class. You still refuse to believe that there isn’t a benefit of having a 5th year option? Get out of here

All I'm seeing is one supposition based on another supposition. Hardly convincing