Trading Down--the 49ers' 1986 Draft (1 Viewer)

RJ in Lafayette

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Three questions:

1. How deep is this draft--that is, how good will the talent be in rounds three in particular and even four?

2. How good do we think our personnel people are?

3. Will there be a player still at 15 who fills a major need and who we think will be special?

If the answers are respectively deep, yes and no, then were I running the organization, my model for this year's draft would be San Francisco's 1986 draft when Bill Walsh had too many energy drinks and produced one of the great drafts in NFL history without (after trades) a first round draft pick and only one second round pick.

In that draft, San Francisco picked in the second round Larry Roberts; in the third Tom Rathman, Tim McKyer and John Taylor; in the fourth Charles Haley, Steve Wallace and Kevin Fagan; and in the sixth Don Griffin.

Walsh made six trades. He swapped first round picks, dropping down two spots and picking up a fifth round pick. He traded his first round pick and a 10th round pick the following year for second and third round picks. He traded a second round pick for a lower second round pick and a third round pick. He traded a second round pick for a first round pick the following year and a 10th round pick. He traded a third round pick for two fourth round picks. And he traded quarterback Matt Cavanaugh for second and third round picks. You get the idea.

Suppose at 15 we traded down to 19 and picked up a third round round pick. Suppose at 19 we traded down to 24 and picked up a third round pick. Suppose at 24 we traded down to 30 and picked up a third round pick. Suppose at 30 we traded down to 39 and picked up a third round pick. At that point, we would have a high second round pick and five third round picks. To make those trades, the Saints admittedly would need much luck and suitors willing to trade a third round pick to move up a few slots to select a targeted player.

But suppose we traded down three times instead of four times and ended up with the 39th pick and a total of four third round picks (the three third round picks obtained in trades and our own), I still would like the idea of trading down to get more picks.

The bottom line is this: In recent drafts, for several reasons--trades and sanctions--we have not had our allotted number of draft picks. As a result, the Saints have a number of weaknesses that need to be addressed if we want to truly compete for championships. We need a number of good players. Were I running the Saints, I would not play it safe, and I would consider trading down for additional picks until the early or middle portion of the second round. Let's give ESPN and the thousand bloggers something to talk about.
 

Otis Henry

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It all depends on whether the Saints know the type of player they need and have a good listing / ranking system. If the scouts are doing a good job then yes this is the way to go.
 

v3kt0r

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If it doesn't work, turn off the XBOX and try again.
 

NOFALCONS10

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Watching the draft over the years, I would say that there are 2 things that are worth trading up for in the draft in the first round because they are so scarce in the later rounds and that a high quantity of late round picks couldn't possibly replace.

Those are:

1) Franchise QB
2) Franchise Superstar Pass Rusher


Think of players like Drew Brees and Jared Allen whose talent typically exceed any number of given players drafted in the middle rounds. Also think of all of the picks that we've wasted trying to acquire the next Jared Allen and Warren Sapp.


If we Stay put at 15, I think that there are likely 3 realistic choices:

-Ezekiel Ansah OLB/DE
-Datone Jones DE
-Lane Johnson OT


But Watching the D-line of the 49ers the past two seasons, Star Lotelelei
is one player that I would like to see us trade up for in the draft because he reminds me of a much younger Justin Smith. In the 4-3 or 3-4, the best predictor of a solid overall D is the play of the D-line and I think that Lotelelei could be that stud on the D-line worth trading up for in this draft.

I would also trade up a few spots for Ezekiel Ansah, but that's just me.


I Just don't know that we have the holes necessary to require trading down.
I see our major needs as--

1) WR------Starter
2) LOLB----Starter
3) Guard---Backup
4 ) Center---Backup
5) Tackle----Backup
6) Cornerback--Starter/backup
7) Free Safety--Backup
8) TE-----Backup
9) ILB---Backup/depth
10) Project QB


We have 6 picks to work with in the draft as well as free agency and undrafted free agency and I only count two positions where we need immediate change over at the top of the Depth Chart. We all would like to stockpile draft choices but I think that a team as talented as the Saints would be better served either staying put for better quality or trading up at this juncture.
 
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RJ in Lafayette

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Thanks for the responses.

More than others, I see a number of weaknesses that need to be addressed in free agency or the draft.

Offense

QB--We need to begin thinking about Drew's successor. But this can wait a year.

RB--We are set.

WR--I would like to see us get another receiver. But I suspect we will hold off a year to see how Toon and Morgan play in 2013.

TE--We need a second tight end.

OL--Much depends on the return of Bushrod, though in my view he is only an average left tackle and I would not overpay to retain him. Assuming he is signed, we still need to upgrade the right tackle and center positions, though these positions may be not top priorities.

Defense

DL--If Hicks is going to play at DE, we need a nose tackle. I am not comfortable with Buckley given his size at the nose, though I realize he has played that position in the past.

LB--I would add two linebackers, including an OLB with pass rushing ability.

DB--A safety.
 

Tim C

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OL--Much depends on the return of Bushrod, though in my view he is only an average left tackle and I would not overpay to retain him. Assuming he is signed, we still need to upgrade the right tackle and center positions, though these positions may be not top priorities.
DLP has been great since he got here. If I remember right, he graded out the best overall on our line this year.
 

ELLIASJWILLIAMS

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I don't think we need to do that much trading down. However id welcome a scenario where we traded down from 15 to say 22. Then from 22 completely out of the 1st round with an early 2nd. From Then id look to find a way to trade back into the late 1st round if a Prospect like Ansah Slips to say 28-29. If not start going to work in the early 2nd. You pick up a plethora of picks for this year and also for next year.
 

NOFALCONS10

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Thanks for the responses.

More than others, I see a number of weaknesses that need to be addressed in free agency or the draft.

Offense

QB--We need to begin thinking about Drew's successor. But this can wait a year.

RB--We are set.

WR--I would like to see us get another receiver. But I suspect we will hold off a year to see how Toon and Morgan play in 2013.

TE--We need a second tight end.

OL--Much depends on the return of Bushrod, though in my view he is only an average left tackle and I would not overpay to retain him. Assuming he is signed, we still need to upgrade the right tackle and center positions, though these positions may be not top priorities.

Defense

DL--If Hicks is going to play at DE, we need a nose tackle. I am not comfortable with Buckley given his size at the nose, though I realize he has played that position in the past.

LB--I would add two linebackers, including an OLB with pass rushing ability.

DB--A safety.



Of the 6 needs that you mentioned that you feel need addressing, these are some of the rounds that i think we can realistically look at finding talent in.

WR ----4th-7th
OT------1st-5th
TE--3rd-6th
NT--4th-7rh-udfa
OLB--1st-5th
DB---3rd-7th-udfa


A quick projection of how I think that the pieces could fall under your scenario is

1) Ezekiel Ansah OLB
3)Baccari Rambo FS
4) Joseph Fauria, TE
5)Mark Jackson OT/OG, Glenville St
6)Uzoma Nwachukwu WR
7) Anthony Rashad White NT



Free safety isn't so much of a need as other positions but I'd really love to have a ballhawk like Rambo patrolling our secondary.

I also think that there will be several key WRs, DGs and OL available after the draft.
 

tomdda

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Just as a FYI, the Saints had a fairly good draft in '86 too. Jim Dombrowski in the 1st round, Dalton Hilliard in the 2nd, Rueben Mayes, some guy named Pat Swilling, and Barry Word in the 3rd. Reggie Sutton in the 5th, New Orleanian Gil Fenerty in the 7th and other players in the 4th, 8th, 9th, 10, and 11th rounds that all made contributions.

For all you trivia nuts out there, in that draft the Saints drafted FOUR running backs who all went on to have at least one 1000 yard rushing season in their professional career. Word had his with the Cheifs and Fenerty had his in the CFL, but still, pretty impressive.

No intention at all of thread jacking, just didn't think it warranted its own thread.
 
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RJ in Lafayette

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I was about to post about Walsh's 1986 draft and then realized that I had already done so.

It seems that at 15 the top three offensive tackles, Dion Jordan, Ansah and Mingo will probably be off the board. The value in this draft is in rounds two and three. I would love to see the Saints in effect tell the commissioner: you think we don't have any draft picks, watch what we do.

Trading down obviously takes finding a willing partner willing to offer reasonable terms, but in this draft there are teams with multiple picks perhaps willing to trade up.

If possible, I would trade down as much as reasonably possible, getting as many picks in the third round as possible. We can pick up a very good player with a first pick at the top of the second round. I would like to see us shoot for multiple picks in rounds two through four.
 

Alan

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Too many picks= wasted picks.

There are only so many spots available. Stand pat on 15th and grab BPA.
 

Galbreath34

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Walsh/9ers deserve credit for the evaluation of the players, but none for trading down. You ALWAYS accept a trade down unless there's a key player there that you can't pass up. The problem is trading down is ALWAYS PASSIVE. You have to be sitting with a guy on the board that someone behind you wants enough to sacrifice to trade up to get to. They have to think the guy is going to be gone and he's a difference maker. You can make it known you'll trade down, but in the end trading up is always the active decision someone else has to make. I can't imagine there's been more than 2 times in 50 years that someone has made a call seeking to trade down that began a consummated trade. Almost all, if not all, start with a call from a GM who wants to trade up.
 
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RJ in Lafayette

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We are engaging in semantics, but I see trading down as an active activity, certainly if done in accordance with the draft strategy of obtaining as many picks as possible in certain rounds.

Two points. Especially after a very small number of picks, teams, even those with good scouting departments, deal in terms of probability with predicting how successful their draft picks will be. This is the reason that Jimmy Johnson liked to have multiple picks. This is the reason many of you have with your retirement program equity mutual funds with money invested in 50 or 100 companies, rather than money invested in three or four companies. We cannot predict with certitude how good players in the draft will be, though there are statistical studies breaking down the probability of players drafted by position at a certain slot in the first round or in a certain round becoming a blue chip player, a red chip, or something less. The Saints traded up to get Ellis, were ready that year to trade multiple high picks to Kansas City to pick Glenn Dorsey, and traded up to pick Ingram. In hindsight, not good moves, but highlighting the risk with picking any player.

And the Saints do not have a number of quality young players ready to step up and take over starting positions. How many players we had selected to or even seriously considered for all-conference teams last year? Our talent is not as good as some think.
 

Galbreath34

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I just don't think you can head into a draft saying you want to and will make trading down happen. It's something you react to when possible, whereas trading up you can plan to overvalue, target your teams and figure out ways to sweeten the deal until it hits a breaking point. It's just hard to leverage "I'll take less please", and "don't you wanna move up?" compared to adding more or targeting teams who may be stuck with their main guys already off the board.

By the way, our very own Saints hold the ultimate example of being able to force a trade up with the most infamous trade up in history.
 

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