***TROPICAL ALERT*** TROPICAL STORM ETA (Late season tropical outlook discussion) (3 Viewers)

[bonnjer]

Much weaker! Is shear and land interaction working it over? Please.

 

[Madmarsha]

My husband just informed me Jim Cantore wasn't really standing in the middle of a forest fire filming this. I feel cheated. #fakenews! #firenado

 

[HoustonGold]

The water right now is just as warm as mid-summer where it is located now. Probably warmer.

CWTG - NCEI Coastal Water Temperature Guide - Gulf of Mexico Coast: Western table

www.ncei.noaa.gov

 

[HoustonGold]

+ for posting Margaret Orr reference. Class.

 

[Madmarsha]

The water right now is just as warm as mid-summer where it is located now. Probably warmer.

Fire up the ice maker. Heading out there to dump a few in myself.

 

[gboudx]

I don’t think Jeff reads sr.com but maybe he does. He included Louisiana info just for LogeEndZone.

Large hurricane expected to make landfall along the SW-SC Louisiana coast on Friday

There have been no changes to the hurricane, tropical storm or storm surge watches.

Discussion:
Delta has moved off the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula today and the hurricane remains well organized with several banding features and a decent central dense overcast over the center. USAF mission has found winds have weakened to 85mph and the pressure has risen to 977mb most likely due to the interaction with the land areas of the Yucatan. The aircraft has also found that the wind radius of the system has expanded as it common for hurricanes when they interact wit land areas. Delta continues a quick NW motion at around 15-18mph.

Track:
Delta will be near the southwestern edge of the steering mid level ridge positioned over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and FL by midday Thursday and will begin to make a turn toward the NNW and N by late Thursday into early Friday. A large scale trough over TX will begin to grab and pick up Delta and turn the hurricane toward the NNE and possibly the NE as Delta nears the Louisiana coast. The cross model guidance has tightened today with the western outlier (ECMWF) having shifted eastward some and the eastern edge with the GFS and UKMET having shifted a bit west. There is now fairly strong consensus in the track forecast nearly down the center of the guidance cluster and on top of the NHC forecast and it is likely that Delta will make landfall in Louisiana between Intracoastal City and Grand Chenier on Friday afternoon/evening.

Intensity:
Delta will be moving into generally favorable conditions for intensification over the next 24-36 hours with little to no noted shear and warm sea surface below. Given the well defined core structure it will likely not be long before Delta begins to intensify, but as the wind field has begun to expand outward that may to some degree temper the intensification rate to a more modest pace as large spread out wind fields in hurricane tend to intensify at a slower rate compared to small contact wind fields.

As Delta begins to turn northward wind shear from the SW will be increasing and sea surface temperatures decreasing along the expected track, but some of these negative factors may be overcome by an acceleration of the hurricane quickly across the cooler waters and along the direction of the shear. It is uncertain how much Delta may weaken before arriving along the Louisiana coast and persons should be planning for a major hurricane.

Of note, continues to be the likely increasing wind field as Delta move northward with the tropical storm and hurricane force winds radius expanding outward due to interactions with the incoming trough and structural changes within the hurricane. Large wind fields in hurricane tend to result in higher and more widespread storm surge near and to the east of the center landfall location due to the ability of the longer fetch of winds to drive sea water toward the coast.

Local Impacts:

• Tides and seas will begin to increase on Thursday and peak on Friday as Delta moves into the NW Gulf. Water levels along the upper TX coast are expected to reach 1-3 feet above normally dry ground which will be similar to hurricane Hanna and about a foot or two below hurricane Laura and TS Beta. At times of high tide some coastal flooding will be possible on Bolivar, the west end of Galveston, Surfside, Sargent, and the west side of Galveston Bay. Additionally wave run-up along the coast could result in locally higher values.

• Rainfall will generally average less than 2 inches east of I-45 in some outer squalls on the west side of Delta. There may be some interaction with the trough over central TX and the western side of the circulation of Delta that may result in some enhancement of rainfall a but further inland on Friday.
• Tropical storm force winds will be possible in the TS watch area, although this will be heavily dependent on the expansion of the wind field and Chambers and southern Liberty Counties have the greeter risk of sustained tropical storm force winds. Across SE Harris and Galveston County sustained winds will likely be below TS force, but could gust to around 40mph at times or in any squalls.

Louisiana Impacts

• Life threatening storm surge of 7-11 feet above the ground now likely over SC LA from where the center makes landfall east toward the Grand Isle and Port Fourchon areas including Vermillion Bay. In areas around Vermillion Bay this level of storm surge would be about 5-6 feet higher than that observed with hurricane Laura. Values between Cameron and Pecan Island which were heavily impacted by Laura are forecast to be between 4-7 feet including Grand Chenier and Creole. It should be noted that storm surge may extend well inland of the flat marsh lands of southern Louisiana and even those locations are not directly on the coast, they could still experience significant storm surge impacts.

• Rainfall will generally be 6-10 inches along the track of the hurricane and due to the fast forward motion, widespread significant flooding is no expected.
• Tropical storm and hurricane force winds will impact a large area of SW and SC LA including those areas recently impacted by hurricane Laura. Due to the fast forward motion, strong winds will extend well inland along the track of Delta including the Abbeville, Lafayette, New Iberia, and Crowley areas.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

 

[HoustonGold]

 

[DaveXA]

My husband just informed me Jim Cantore wasn't really standing in the middle of a forest fire filming this. I feel cheated. #fakenews! #firenado

My brother told me he (Cantore) arrived in town today.

 

[Doug B]

shifted further east. little closer to crowley.

Very slight shift east, yes. Looks like less than a 5-mile adjustment. We'll be hanging on the 10 p.m. update now.

 

[Bill]

yessir... youngsville, almost iberia parish, about a mile away. laura was just a little wind/rain for us. no damage. we'll see what happens here.

I’m wishing you well

LOL! You sure do like bolding words, Bill.

Hope you enjoy it too.

 

[Madmarsha]

My brother told me he (Cantore) arrived in town today.

Saw the other guy, Paul, on TV. Didn't see Jim yet.

 

[HoustonGold]

No roaming the streets . Please no sightseeing

 

[Doug B]

Very slight shift east, yes. Looks like less than a 5-mile adjustment. We'll be hanging on the 10 p.m. update now.

... and the 10 p.m. update gave that slight shift east right back. 10 p.m. track pretty much looks like the 10 a.m. track.

 

[Saint_Ward]

 

[HoustonGold]

... and the 10 p.m. update gave that slight shift east right back. 10 p.m. track pretty much looks like the 10 a.m. track.

You mean west. It looks like it shifted about 10-20 miles west

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