***TROPICAL ALERT*** Hurricane Delta (Late season tropical outlook discussion: is it over yet??!!??) (13 Viewers)

Super44

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10/5: Deleting and adding more stuff to Super44's ORIGINAL POST.

I'm adding key info to the original post to make it easier to find. I'll add more info as needed. ~primadox
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NHC PRODUCTS

NHC Home
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Delta information:
Public Advisory
Forecast Advisory
Forecast Discussion
Wind Speed Probabilities
Key Messages
NWS Local Products
US Watches/Warnings


Other links:
NOAA Satellite Imagery (links to various looping images)
WWL Hurricane Central
Mike's Weather Page (lots of links and maps here)
College of DuPage (good site for model runs)
Tropics - wide view (from Hurricane Harbor) - click on the 5 day movie html5 link to animate.
NOAA - Local River Flood level predictions
Jeff Lindner: Facebook page Twitter feed
Space City Weather Facebook page
Saints Report Hurricane Preparedness Tips thread


CURRENT MAPS/FORECASTS/MODELS:

Official NHC Forecast Cone




Radar:

 
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gboudx

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Delta weakens slightly, but still a major hurricane with sustained winds of 115mph.

Recon missions this morning have indicated that the central pressure of Delta has risen from 958mb to 962mb and winds have decreased slightly from 120mph to 115mph. The hurricane continues to move northward at 13mph and a turn toward the NNE should occur in the next few hours.

Tropical storm force winds are now impacting the coastal areas with Galveston having recently gusted to 44mph. Offshore buoy 20 miles east of Galveston is gusting to 47mph and the buoy 60 miles south of Freeport has gusted to 60mph. An elevated platform off the Matagorda County coast is currently sustained at 48g57mph. Tropical storm force winds will begin to expand across coastal Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers and into southern Liberty and SE Harris County over the next several hours.

Tides have been holding near steady this morning in the 1-2 ft above MHHW levels as storm surge and wave action continues along the coast. The area is moving toward low tide so levels should remain steady near current levels through midday which is low tide. The maximum push of water toward the Louisiana coast is underway and water levels will rise quickly over the next several hours.

The western edge of the rain shield has continued to stop along the I-45/SH 288 corridor and do not expect any additional westward expansion of this shield today. E and SE parts of Harris County have recorded .25-5.0 of an inch of rainfall in bands this morning and additional amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible east of I-45 today.

Conditions will improve quickly overnight as Delta rapidly accelerates across LA.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
 

bonnjer

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@gboudx

Still a major, but a good sign if it's already starting to go up in pressure and down in winds, right? Has it even hit the cooler waters yet?
 

bonnjer

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Just saw on the weather channel that the hurricane hunters could only find winds of about 90 mph close to the surface. That would be a blessing. It shouldn't be able to strengthen at this point, right?
 

bonnjer

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Hurricane hunters found winds of 93 mph on the southeast eyewall.
 

gboudx

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Delta weakens to a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 110mph

Tropical storm force winds now along the upper TX coast with Galveston sustained at 40g58mph at 100pm. Tropical storm force wind gust occurring over SE Harris County with NASA gusting the 42mph and Morgan’s Point 40mph. Sustained tropical storm force winds will be likely for the next 4-5 hours over the Galveston Bay area with gusts up around 55-60mph especially on Bolivar and Galveston Island.

Tides continue to hold steading in the 2.0-2.5 ft above MHHW range and with large wave action on the beaches, overwash and coastal flooding is occurring along the upper TX coast. Tidal flooding in SE Harris County has been limited thus far and as winds turn N and NNW late this afternoon water will begin to drive south out of the upper parts of the Bay.

Tide gages in SW Louisiana show significant rises in the last hour as the core of Delta moves toward the coast and maximum push of water will occur over the next few hours.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
 

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