***TROPICAL ALERT*** TROPICAL STORM ETA (Late season tropical outlook discussion) (1 Viewer)

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This storm seems to be going far enough west. I'm putting a lid on it as far as personal preparedness. Unless a miracle of bad stuff happens tomorrow and it shifts 100+ miles to the east. Still have lots of prep ready from the other 5 storms that missed SE, LA.
 
Louisiana impacts provided as well.
Delta turns NW with 100mph winds

Large hurricane will make landfall on the southwest Louisiana coast on Friday.

Tropical storm warning is in effect from San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass

Hurricane warning is in effect from Sabine Pass to Morgan City

Storm surge warning is in effect from Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, MS

Coastal Flood warning is in effect from San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass.

Discussion:
Delta has continued to slowly become better organized overnight with deep convection near the center and decent banding features. A USAF plane will be in Delta shortly to assess the wind structure and intensity of the hurricane. Microwave images this morning show a well developed eyewall especially on the southern and western sides of the eye, but IR images still do not show any indications of any eye and Delta has had a somewhat similar and odd structure for most of its life. The last USAF plane late yesterday evening noted that the wind field of Delta has begun to expand with hurricane force winds extending outward 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds 125 miles.

Track:
Delta is starting to make the turn toward the right and is now moving toward the NW at 15mph. The stout mid level ridge to the north and northeast of the hurricane is starting to erode on the western edge as a trough over TX progresses slightly east. Delta will turn northward later today and tonight and then NNE on Friday making landfall along the SW LA coast between Cameron and Intracoastal City or very near where hurricane Laura made landfall in late August. There has been little change in the model track of Delta over the last 12-24 hours and confidence is fairly high that Delta will make landfall Friday afternoon over SW Louisiana

Intensity:
While conditions over the Gulf of Mexico are favorable for intensification, Delta is only slowly gaining strength and this is most likely due to the increasingly large wind field. Larger hurricanes tend to have slower rates of intensity change. Delta has about 24 hours to continue to intensify before conditions become increasingly unfavorable for development and some weakening may occur. Increasing upper level shear noted along the TX coast will begin to impact the hurricane early Friday and the hurricane will also be crossing cooler nearshore waters over the NW Gulf of Mexico. While these conditions are unfavorable for a hurricane, Delta’s large size and fast motion may preclude much overall change in intensity as it approaches the coast.

With little change in the forecast track, there have been no significant changes in the forecasted impacts.

Local Impacts:
  • Tides and seas will begin to increase today and peak on Friday as Delta moves into the NW Gulf. Water levels along the upper TX coast are expected to reach 1-3 feet above normally dry ground which will be similar to hurricane Hanna and hurricane Laura. At times of high tide some coastal flooding will be possible on Bolivar, the west end of Galveston, Surfside, Sargent, and the west side of Galveston Bay. Additionally wave run-up along the coast could result in locally higher values. Late Friday as winds become NNW and NW over Galveston Bay, this will drive water in the Bay southward and toward the north sides of Galveston and Bolivar which may result in some backside flooding in those areas.
  • Rainfall will generally average less than 2 inches east of I-45 in some outer squalls on the west side of Delta. There may be some interaction with the trough over central TX and the western side of the circulation of Delta that may result in some enhancement of rainfall a bit further inland on Friday.
  • Tropical storm force winds will be possible in the TS warning area, although this will be heavily dependent on the expansion of the wind field and Chambers and southern Liberty Counties have the greater risk of sustained tropical storm force winds. Could see sustained tropical storm force winds in and around Galveston Bay on Friday and over southeast Harris County and Galveston County.
Louisiana Impacts
  • Life threatening storm surge of 7-11 feet above the ground now likely over SC LA from where the center makes landfall east toward the Grand Isle and Port Fourchon areas including Vermillion Bay. In areas around Vermillion Bay this level of storm surge would be about 5-6 feet higher than that observed with hurricane Laura. Values between Cameron and Pecan Island which were heavily impacted by Laura are forecast to be between 4-7 feet including Grand Chenier and Creole. It should be noted that storm surge may extend well inland over the flat marsh lands of southern Louisiana and those locations that are not directly on the coast, could still experience significant storm surge impacts.
  • Rainfall will generally be 6-10 inches along the track of the hurricane and due to the fast forward motion, widespread significant flooding is no expected.
  • Tropical storm and hurricane force winds will impact a large area of SW and SC LA including those areas recently impacted by hurricane Laura. Due to the fast forward motion, strong winds will extend well inland along the track of Delta including the Abbeville, Lafayette, New Iberia, and Crowley areas.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
Click to expand...
 
jayd265 said:
Woke up to it a lot more west than I expected. Should be good at my house now. Sucks for LC/jennings area
Click to expand...
Yes, this much of a westward movement in the projected path was a bit of a surprise to me. While nothing is written in stone yet, the updated forecast seems to indicate a weaker storm at landfall than what they were expecting at this time yesterday morning. While it's hard to say right now how far Youngsville will be from the eastern eyewall, there's a world of difference from a 100mph storm vs a 120mph storm. However, things like property elevation, type of structure, and nearby TREES should all be considered when deciding where best to ride out a hurricane.

While the NHC now feels Delta will not reach Cat 4 status, it's still hard to say if it may hold together as a strong Cat 2. Most structures handle 100mph winds fairly well, but even this size storm can inflict trouble in the form of fallen trees, flying debris, isolated heavy rain/flooding, and damaging tornadoes; even from the feeder bands far from the CoC. Let's just hope it maintains its forward speed and gets out of here quickly.
 

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