**TROPICAL ALERT** HURRICANE HERMINE DISCUSSION (was "Couple of tropical disturbances in the Atlantic") (1 Viewer)

bclemms

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As of now it looks like Fiona will stay out in the water.

However, there are two disturbances in the Atlantic that will be slow to develop over the next few days. Several models are consistently trying to really strengthen to a near major hurricane. They are also hinting at the possibility of putting it in the gulf.

MODELS ARE A VERY LONG WAY OUT right now. Please do not take it as fact. I'd put it somewhere near 25% that this thing forms, holds together and ends up in the gulf. Normally I'd never post about a hurricane this far out. However, we have so many people distracted by the flooding and so many that have lost everything including homes and cars that I'd like to remind everyone we are just entering peak hurricane season. We also have so many people right now without any sort of preparation since they lost everything. Just want to give everyone a little extra heads up to watch these disturbances closely.

Again, models this far out typically aren't very accurate. This is just a reminder to pay attention.

**************************************************************************

UPDATE: 8/31, 4:00pm: ADDING LINKS/MAPS TO ORIGINAL POST.
Added additional links due to upgrade to TS status; added new NHC interactive storm surge and tracking maps ~primadox


NHC Products

NHC Home
Tropical Weather Outlook
Tropical Weather Discussion
Hurricane Hermine Public Advisory
Hurricane Hermine Forecast Advisory
Hurricane Hermine Forecast Discussion
Hurricane Hermine Wind Speed Probabilities
Local advisories

NEW NHC INTERACTIVE MAPS:
**NEW NHC MAP** Storm Surge Watch/Warning graphics
**NEW NHC MAP** Potential Storm Surge graphics
**NEW NHC MAP** Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone
**NEW NHC MAP** Mesoscale Analysis (image refreshes every minute)


Other Local Weather Statements
WWL Hurricane Central



Satellite Products
Link to NOAA page with numerous animated images: Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters - Satellite Products and Services Division - Office of Satellite and Product Operations

Visual (animated)



Water Vapor


Infrared




Radar

from wunderground.com:




CURRENT MAPS/FORECASTS/MODELS:

Computer models (courtesy of wunderground.com):



NHC projected track with watches/warnings



Warnings and surface winds



NHC wind speed probabilities



NHC rainfall potential
 
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efil4stnias

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The coast would if this were to verify.
Well that's about right.. we fly out 9/1 for LSU game.

The last opener away game we planned you ask?

Carolina ...2005. Haven't since then for superstition. We decide it's time...LSU....Lambeau.

I'm done planning opening away games if this verifies for ever.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
 

notsaintkyle

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The coast would if this were to verify.
Whoa, what is the source of this image? (I realize that a lot can happen between now and then, but I want to pass this along to my parents who still live in the region.)
 
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bclemms

bclemms

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Whoa, what is the source of this image? (I realize that a lot can happen between now and then, but I want to pass this along to my parents who still live in the region.)
GFS model. I feel very confident we'll get a named storm out of it. The track is bouncing around from staying out to sea to hitting Louisiana so it's wildly inconsistent at this point. Don't want to freak people out just want people to know the possibility is out there.
 

efil4stnias

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Should this thread be stickied?

Last i saw, had Gaston at the southern tip of Florida which bodes well for a Gulf storm.
 

superchuck500

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From 8am (EDT), NHC:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for
development of this system during the next couple of days while
it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the northern
Leeward Island and the Greater Antilles. Large-scale conditions
could become more conducive later this week while the system moves
near Hispaniola and then the southeastern and central Bahamas. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this disturbance later this morning. Interests from the
islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should
monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and
possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over these areas
regardless of tropical cyclone formation. Please consult products
issued by your local meteorological offices for further details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
 

gboudx

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Update from a Houston-based pro-met on 99L. Gaston is "move along, nothing to see here". Bottom line on 99L is the strength of the developing SE ridge, combined with strength of whatever tropical cyclone it is at the time it can be influenced by the ridge.

99L:
The large tropical wave located a few hundred miles E of the Leeward Islands has shown an increase in organization overnight with moderate to at times heavy convection developing in an near the wave axis. There has yet to be defined low level circulation shown on visible images…however a USAF mission is currently planned for this morning to investigate this system and its structure.

While near term development chances appear on the lower side, the system will track WNW toward the Bahamas by this weekend where conditions may be much more favorable for development. There continues to be significantly different solutions offered by both the global and hurricane models with respect to both the track and intensity of the system as it nears FL late this weekend. This inconsistency is resulting in less than average confidence on what will actually happen.

What seems to be agreed upon by all the models is that a fairly strong high pressure ridge will be developing over the SE US and mid Atlantic states this weekend into early next week which will result in a slowing of this feature over the Bahamas and potentially a turn toward the W or even WSW. Much of this left turn depends on how large and intensity of the ridging over the SE US. Model ensembles have been a bit more consistent than the operational runs on this general pattern of a WNW/NW moving system slowing and turning toward the W.

As for intensity…it is all over the place with the EURO and HWRF by far the strongest and the CMC and UKMET on the weaker side while the GFS shows no development at all. Ensembles are also leaning toward the weaker solutions especially when compared to the HWRF.

This is a good time to remind everyone that following every run of each model and its exact track is not the best forecast approach…but instead use the longer range guidance for upper air steering patterns…the placement of trough and ridges and any trends in the guidance clustering or ensembles.

NHC gives this wave a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Aircraft: NHC has tasked 2 additional recon missions tomorrow and Thursday and a synoptic scale WC-130 mission Thursday evening.
 

Heathen Saint

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Gaston is a fish storm. Quit scaring people.
I may be wrong but i don't think he's referencing Gaston..I think this one would be Hermione(bad spelling) if it ever developed

Most models show 99L going into south/central FL as a depression or even TS

It bears watching because IF it gets into the gulf, intensification is possible. Big IF at this time. The storm could also fail to develop the next couple of days.

Not scaring anyone, it's just smart to keep an eye on all storms
 

efil4stnias

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Update from a Houston-based pro-met on 99L. Gaston is "move along, nothing to see here". Bottom line on 99L is the strength of the developing SE ridge, combined with strength of whatever tropical cyclone it is at the time it can be influenced by the ridge.
ok so i was confused. Gaston is the one closer to Cape Verde

99l is the one closer to leeward islands.

i had em backwards.

so it will depend on the ridging.
 

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