***TROPICAL ALERT*** Hurricane Ida thread (3 Viewers)

[primadox]

8/27 6pm: Since most of the maps won't update automatically like they used to, I removed most of them. They are all available on the NHC site, as well as other sites I will provide. Since I have to update them manually, I'm only including the NHC forecast cone and track, key messages, and a live satellite image from NOAA. I will try to add local radars as the storm gets closer.

EDIT - live satellite imagery shows up in edit mode, but turns into a red X when I save it. I'll put the link instead.

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I'm adding key info to the original post to make it easier to find. I'll add more info as needed. ~primadox
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NHC PRODUCTS

NHC Home
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Ida information:
Public Advisory
Forecast Advisory
Forecast Discussion
Wind Speed Probabilities
NHS Local Products
U.S. Watches/Warnings
Key Messages
Update Statement
Link to storm specific satellite imagery
GOES live infrared imagery (via Track the Tropics)
GOES live satellite imagery (via Track the Tropics)

Other links:
NOAA Satellite Imagery (links to various looping images)
WWL Hurricane Central
Mike's Weather Page (lots of links and maps here)
Track the Tropics
Tropical Tidbits (current storm info)
College of DuPage (good site for model runs)
Tropics - wide view (from Hurricane Harbor) - click on the 5 day movie html5 link to animate.
NOAA - Local River Flood level predictions
Jeff Lindner: Facebook page Twitter feed
Space City Weather Facebook page
Saints Report Hurricane Preparedness Tips thread


CURRENT MAPS/FORECASTS/MODELS:

Official NHC Forecast Cone

Key Messages

Radar/Satellite Images:

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

thanks kellye

 

[bonnjer]

12z only has them coming into more alignment....

 

[efil4stnias]

12z only has them coming into more alignment....

that teal line- that is worst case for lower JP, Orleans and St. Bernard. Doubt that verifies, but eeek

 

[buzd]

Watching...

 

[bclemms]

that teal line- that is worst case for lower JP, Orleans and St. Bernard. Doubt that verifies, but eeek

12z GFS has not run yet. The 6z and its ensembles were farther East than the teal line. Those lines would put significant pressure on the levee system in Nola and would require an evac of the city. Someone is going to have to make a really difficult decision in the next 24 hours. Evacs outside the levee protection system should start today (tomorrow morning at the latest) to clear the way for the possibility of a full metro evacuation.

 

[primadox]

Just FYI, I've posted the latest Tropical Outlook map from the NHC page, but yesterday's map keeps showing up. I will try to fix it, but if anyone has any advice on how to do so, let me know. Fellow mods, feel free to edit that post to fix it if you know how!

 

[GrandAdmiral]

So, how strong could this one get. Cat 1? So far, the forecast seems to have it moving rather quickly.

 

[bonnjer]

So, how strong could this one get. Cat 1? So far, the forecast seems to have it moving rather quickly.

Some models show it going to Cat 2 or even Cat 3.

 

[efil4stnias]

12z GFS has not run yet. The 6z and its ensembles were farther East than the teal line. Those lines would put significant pressure on the levee system in Nola and would require an evac of the city. Someone is going to have to make a really difficult decision in the next 24 hours. Evacs outside the levee protection system should start today (tomorrow morning at the latest) to clear the way for the possibility of a full metro evacuation.

yeah this has always been a scenario im sure most ( in charge ) feared- a storm developing 3 days away without 100% certainty of strength, but potential to ramp up very quicky. Do you err on side of caution, call for evacs, storm turns ever so slightly and misses, but now have 100,000 or more aggravated and saying "cry wolf" ?

Not an enviable position to be in.

 

[perret318]

I miss the days where it was actually reassuring to see the models pointing right at you when it was still a few days out.

Stupid modern reliable models.

 

[faceman]

12z GFS has not run yet. The 6z and its ensembles were farther East than the teal line. Those lines would put significant pressure on the levee system in Nola and would require an evac of the city. Someone is going to have to make a really difficult decision in the next 24 hours. Evacs outside the levee protection system should start today (tomorrow morning at the latest) to clear the way for the possibility of a full metro evacuation.

Yeah, I was checking S2K this morning. Models Have been shifting east. The Euro and GFS are in consensus. If this
holds,NOLA is going to be on the nasty side of this storm.

There is also a 90 degree eddie just off the LA coast which concerns me. If or when this storm crosses it, it will have a lot
of fuel to work with.

 

[BreesusSaves]

So, how strong could this one get. Cat 1? So far, the forecast seems to have it moving rather quickly.

There are a few models with it reaching Cat 4 status according to my friend's dad who works for the NHC and NDBC. This storm could be really, really bad.

 

[faceman]

So, how strong could this one get. Cat 1? So far, the forecast seems to have it moving rather quickly.

Right now the Euro and GFS have landfall in the 950 mb range which is a strong cat 3

 

[bonnjer]

Now a Tropical Depression.