***TROPICAL ALERT*** Hurricane Isaias (1 Viewer)

primadox

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This one may bear watching for our Florida and east coast members, but the lower part of the cone as of now still doesn't rule out a GOM storm. I'll add the usual links shortly, and add more maps as needed.

NHC PRODUCTS

NHC Home
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Isaias Public Advisory
Isaias Forecast Advisory
Isaias Forecast Discussion
Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities
NWS Local Products for Isaias
US Watches/Warnings for Isaias
Key Messages for Isaias


Other links:
NOAA Satellite Imagery (links to various looping images)
WWL Hurricane Central
Mike's Weather Page (lots of links and maps here)
College of DuPage (good site for model runs)
Tropics - wide view (from Hurricane Harbor) - click on the 5 day movie html5 link to animate.
NOAA - Local River Flood level predictions
Saints Report Hurricane Preparedness Tips thread



CURRENT MAPS/FORECASTS/MODELS:

NHC Maps






Tracking models

Ensembles:



Global + Hurricane Models (courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com):



Radar (courtesy of Mike's Weather Page):

 
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faceman

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strong ridging to the north according to the experts on storm 2k. This may take a more southerly track. We'll know more by
Thursday
 

Saint_Ward

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strong ridging to the north according to the experts on storm 2k. This may take a more southerly track. We'll know more by
Thursday
Yup. Such a large area of disturbance, it will be a couple days to know which track it's taking. The good news, is that is seems like if it intensifies, it will more likely curl north. The weaker it is, the more likely to head more west, and may die. But, also possibly a GoM storm.

I don't think any of the models are that great until this thing forms a clear center.

 

bclemms

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Latest Euro has this in the South Central Gulf at the end of it's run. Hurricane models are starting to develop it rather quickly and hitting Bahamas at 980 then into East Coast of Florida.

Tons of uncertainty with this one. If it tracks slightly farther South than DR, Haiti, Cuba come into play. Farther North and a curve north comes into play. It's a huge system without a well defined circulation so the models are just guessing from initialization. If it gets into gulf in the first week of August, the outcome is historically pretty bad. Lots to watch.
 

SaintInBucLand

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Local meteorologist has this to say about the storm.

Afternoon thoughts on PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone 9)
1. It is STILL disorganized and hurricane hunters have not been able to find a closed low. In other words, it's still not a tropical storm. Chances are very high, at some point today it will be.
2. No real changes to my post of yesterday. A weaker storm will go WEST. A stronger storm will go NORTH. With weakness still in the forecast, a track in the Gulf and near the Bay Area is a strong possibility as a MUCH WEAKER system. I can't stress this one enough.
3. Important to note the NHC has LOWERED the forecast intensity of the storm as it appears likely it will indeed be weakened by land and mountain interaction of the islands. This is a point we mentioned yesterday as good news for our area.
4. So while the track does indeed appear to be closer to the Bay Area (At THIS TIME), the impacts still appear to be something we can handle. They now never go higher than 50 mph in the Gulf. In my opinion, this is the one thing we must keep a close eye on. Sudden increase in wind speeds is nothing unusual these days, and we definitely don't want to get caught with our guard down. But as of now, the "trend is our friend" and that trend is weakening.
5. I said this yesterday, I will say it again. This is NOT Irma. Not even close.
6. Once the center forms, and we are assured it will be weakened by the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba, we will be very confident of the track and intensity. That should be later tomorrow. Until then, we just need to track and prepare in case of an unexpected change. Heaven knows, it's 2020, so you never know. The small window as it will likely move through the Florida straits could allow for some intensification, yet the storm should be pretty beat up by then. If there is going to be development, it's probably going to be there.
7. Rule #7. Nothing to freak out about. Get your plan together. Have your supplies ready. Even it it's "just a tropical storm", we can still see power outages and heavy rains. Our team is on it 24/7. Keep it right here for the latest and of course, I'll host DPL tonight at 7 with all the latest track info and answering your questions.
 

Saint_Ward

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I haven't finished watching this.. latest model runs show it staying more off shore East of Florida.. still not a defined center to really cue off of.. which, honestly, I'm good with.. stay weak and disoranized bruh.

 

faceman

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I haven't finished watching this.. latest model runs show it staying more off shore East of Florida.. still not a defined center to really cue off of.. which, honestly, I'm good with.. stay weak and disoranized bruh.

If this does develop, it's going to be a humongous sized storm. Climatology is still in our favor right now. Our best hope is
it hits Hispanolia and their high mountains rip it apart.
 

bclemms

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If this does develop, it's going to be a humongous sized storm. Climatology is still in our favor right now. Our best hope is
it hits Hispanolia and their high mountains rip it apart.
Yup, lots working against it from being a major hurricane but anything is still on the table this far out.

Also, we have a storm.
 

superchuck500

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Yup, lots working against it from being a major hurricane but anything is still on the table this far out.

Also, we have a storm.
okay I’m gonna have to practice saying this one.

Edit - kind of sounds like Jar-Jar
 
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faceman

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Yup, lots working against it from being a major hurricane but anything is still on the table this far out.

Also, we have a storm.
Now that we have a COC ( center of circulation ) Models will start becoming more accurate.
 

faceman

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Last nights model runs suggest this is going to be an east coast rider with a possible landfall in south Florida first.
 

superchuck500

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Last nights model runs suggest this is going to be an east coast rider with a possible landfall in south Florida first.
We have a beach rental at Isle of Palms (SC) the week of Aug. 8. We want to get out of it. So I need this thing to sloooooow down, and then threaten the SC coast enough for an evacuation order - and then for it to bend harmlessly out to sea.
 

guidomerkinsrules

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We have a beach rental at Isle of Palms (SC) the week of Aug. 8. We want to get out of it. So I need this thing to sloooooow down, and then threaten the SC coast enough for an evacuation order - and then for it to bend harmlessly out to sea.
You’re just hopping back and forth from the mountains to the beach?
 

efil4stnias

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We have a beach rental at Isle of Palms (SC) the week of Aug. 8. We want to get out of it. So I need this thing to sloooooow down, and then threaten the SC coast enough for an evacuation order - and then for it to bend harmlessly out to sea.
lol couldnt help but picture:
 

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Saint_Ward

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Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, we will get better models predicting this. The center is likely to move dramatically today, due to the nature of this broad wave, and land interaction.

The early Euro almost looks like it doesn't expect the center low to change locations and just push through Hispaniola, whereas the others have it reform a bit north. The ones that call it to reform north, tend to show the curl missing FL.. The ones keeping it where it is, show it going right for South Florida, but also keep is weaker.

That's my uneducated view of it, at least.
 

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