***TROPICAL ALERT*** Hurricane Isaias (2 Viewers)

primadox

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This one may bear watching for our Florida and east coast members, but the lower part of the cone as of now still doesn't rule out a GOM storm. I'll add the usual links shortly, and add more maps as needed.

NHC PRODUCTS

NHC Home
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Isaias Public Advisory
Isaias Forecast Advisory
Isaias Forecast Discussion
Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities
NWS Local Products for Isaias
US Watches/Warnings for Isaias
Key Messages for Isaias


Other links:
NOAA Satellite Imagery (links to various looping images)
WWL Hurricane Central
Mike's Weather Page (lots of links and maps here)
College of DuPage (good site for model runs)
Tropics - wide view (from Hurricane Harbor) - click on the 5 day movie html5 link to animate.
NOAA - Local River Flood level predictions
Saints Report Hurricane Preparedness Tips thread



CURRENT MAPS/FORECASTS/MODELS:

NHC Maps






Tracking models

Ensembles:



Global + Hurricane Models (courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com):



Radar (courtesy of Mike's Weather Page):

 
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bclemms

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Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, we will get better models predicting this. The center is likely to move dramatically today, due to the nature of this broad wave, and land interaction.

The early Euro almost looks like it doesn't expect the center low to change locations and just push through Hispaniola, whereas the others have it reform a bit north. The ones that call it to reform north, tend to show the curl missing FL.. The ones keeping it where it is, show it going right for South Florida, but also keep is weaker.

That's my uneducated view of it, at least.
Pretty good view. It's got other factors at play like the timing of the trough over the southern US, how organized the storm can become to fend off SW shear and how much the Bermuda High can build in the weakness along the East Coast.

The track to the southern Bahamas is pretty easy, after that it gets really complicated.
 

superchuck500

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Thursday evening report. Storm center better defined and deepening as it emerges from crossing the eastern tip of Hispaniola. Quite a bit of shear ahead.

 

superchuck500

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Well I don't like this look at all. There we are smack in the middle of Maryland's lower eastern shore and assuming a NNE track, right in the NE quadrant. It's going to suck.
Hopefully if you get it, it's just some nasty weather for a few hours. Intensity guidance is fairly uniform.


1596220328829.png
 

faceman

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Well I don't like this look at all. There we are smack in the middle of Maryland's lower eastern shore and assuming a NNE track, right in the NE quadrant. It's going to suck.
If you do, it's most likely going to be a tropical storm at worst. If it was late August or September i'd be more concerned .
 

saintmdterps

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If you do, it's most likely going to be a tropical storm at worst. If it was late August or September i'd be more concerned .
My only real concern is that we've had a lot of rain lately and the ground is saturated. If we get wind and rain, we're going to lose a lot of trees. There are a few that need to go, however, so as long as they fall in the woods it's cool :hihi:
 

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