***TROPICAL ALERT*** Hurricane Sally (Tropical systems are going into 2020 mode) (1 Viewer)

bonnjer

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9/14: ADDING LINKS/MAPS TO bonnjer's ORIGINAL POST.

I'm adding key info to the original post to make it easier to find. I'll add more info as needed. ~primadox
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ORIGINAL POST:



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NHC PRODUCTS

NHC Home
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Sally Public Advisory
Sally Forecast Advisory
Sally Forecast Discussion
Sally Wind Speed Probabilities
NWS Local Products for Sally
US Watches/Warnings for Sally
Key Messages for Sally


Other links:
NOAA Satellite Imagery (links to various looping images)
WWL Hurricane Central
Mike's Weather Page (lots of links and maps here)
College of DuPage (good site for model runs)
Tropics - wide view (from Hurricane Harbor) - click on the 5 day movie html5 link to animate.
NOAA - Local River Flood level predictions
Saints Report Hurricane Preparedness Tips thread





CURRENT MAPS/FORECASTS/MODELS:

Radar






Satellite Images




NHC Maps

















Ensembles (courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com):


Global + Hurricane Models (courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com):
 
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bonnjer

bonnjer

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5-day doesn't look better.

 

Saintman2884

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I, for one, welcome our new tropical cyclone overlords.
I think quite a few residents in and around Lake Charles, LA and parts of extreme upper NE Texas Gulf Coast would have plenty to say to Queen Hurricane Laura and where she can go and what they believe to do she can to herself. Proudly proclaimed with many residents giving Laura two Middle fingers extended into air regarding her.
 
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bonnjer

bonnjer

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OmG! This would drive me insane. So are all these things gonna hit Louisiana? 😱
That orange X in the gulf is worrisome and that giant red splotch coming off the African coast is pointing this way. Paulette and Rene are looking like fish storms, so no trouble there.
 

*KamaraG!rl*

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That orange X in the gulf is worrisome and that giant red splotch coming off the African coast is pointing this way. Paulette and Rene are looking like fish storms, so no trouble there.
Oh, no! How can they tell where these things are going that far in advance? :idunno:Hopefully, it doesn't hit Louisiana especially the areas that are still recovering from that storm a few weeks ago. That would be even more devastating!
 

Doug B

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Specific to New Orleans:

I know Katrina and all ... but did the 6:00 news used to track these things as non-developed troughs back in the 1970s-80s?

I remember once in a while, Bob Breck would show us a satellite map of the West African coast, and there's be a circular storm on it. He'd say something like "There's a system developing 200 nautical miles WEST of the Cape Verde Islands. But don't worry -- absolutely no threat to the viewing area."

These days ... I almost feel like we know too much. Knowing there are 'disturbances' in the Gulf right now with a 10% chance of developing into a tropical storm just doesn't seem helpful in any way. Was this stuff always watched in the past (pre-Internet) by professional meteorologists, they just never said anything until the storms were named?

Bonnjer, please don't take this post as a slag against you. I am mentally fighting against the idea that constant 24/7 vigilance against the next Katrina is the "new normal" for SE Louisiana. I guess I have the wrong mindset for living here now ... I just want to know about when it's time to make the "ignore / shelter-in-place / evacuate" decision. And IMHO, there is such a thing as too much warning too early. I just don't have the mental energy to remain constantly on alert -- I've got to have spells of forgetting about the tropics.
 
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bonnjer

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Bonnjer, please don't take this post as a slag against you. I am mentally fighting against the idea that constant 24/7 vigilance against the next Katrina is the "new normal" for SE Louisiana. I guess I have the wrong mindset for living here now ... I just want to know about when it's time to make the "ignore / shelter-in-place / evacuate" decision. And IMHO, there is such a thing as too much warning too early. I just don't have the mental energy to remain constantly on alert -- I've got to have spells of forgetting about the tropics.
Oh no, Doug, I get it. I just figured that some out of there might want to know not to let their guard down yet. It's a terrible thing to have to think about just as we're getting ourselves picked up off the ground from Laura.
 

efil4stnias

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Specific to New Orleans:

I know Katrina and all ... but did the 6:00 news used to track these things as non-developed troughs back in the 1970s-80s?

I remember once in a while, Bob Breck would show us a satellite map of the West African coast, and there's be a circular storm on it. He'd say something like "There's a system developing 200 nautical miles WEST of the Cape Verde Islands. But don't worry -- absolutely no threat to the viewing area."

These days ... I almost feel like we know too much. Knowing there are 'disturbances' in the Gulf right now with a 10% chance of developing into a tropical storm just doesn't seem helpful in any way. Was this stuff always watched in the past (pre-Internet) by professional meteorologists, they just never said anything until the storms were named?

Bonnjer, please don't take this post as a slag against you. I am mentally fighting against the idea that constant 24/7 vigilance against the next Katrina is the "new normal" for SE Louisiana. I guess I have the wrong mindset for living here now ... I just want to know about when it's time to make the "ignore / shelter-in-place / evacuate" decision. And IMHO, there is such a thing as too much warning too early. I just don't have the mental energy to remain constantly on alert -- I've got to have spells of forgetting about the tropics.

we didnt have the technology with global/hurricane models ( super-computer generated ) with reams of data input that we do today.

asfar as these two....all local mets have said - going to be a rainy week ahead - and thats IT.

I think most veterans of hurricanes know that once its a well developed TS entering gulf, it bears watching. I dont know that we will ever experience the flood event Katrina was. That was a perfect storm at a perfect time. I have to believe the flood walls are now in much better shape than 2005.

evacuation is more for having electricity than anything else.

There is NOTHING on this planet more energy-sapping than having to do clean up the days and weeks after a storm when skies are clear and temps are pushing 105 "feels like temps".
 

Doug B

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I think most veterans of hurricanes know that once its a well developed TS entering gulf, it bears watching.
Yes, agreed.

Now ... troughs off the coast of Africa and disturbances in the western Atlantic with a 10% chance of developing ... do they bear watching?
 

SaintRob

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This is showing up for Sept 23 on the GFS. Goes over Cuba and then goes north. Two weeks out, but needs monitoring.

Sept_23_Cat_3.jpg
 

Grandadmiral

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Yes, agreed.

Now ... troughs off the coast of Africa and disturbances in the western Atlantic with a 10% chance of developing ... do they bear watching?
It depends on if they're saying 10% chance of developing over the next 2 days or 10% chance over the next week. I've seen both reported.
 

SaintInBucLand

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From a meteorologist in Tampa that I like because he doesn't hype or try to scare people..

You are going to see A LOT of tropical posts the next few weeks on social media. Nothing unusual about that, "tis the season". PLEASE choose your weather source carefully. Our "red blob" has dependable model runs ranging from hitting the US to harmlessly going out to sea. Bottom line, model runs are terribly inaccurate this far out, so don't stress too much over changes. Look for a trend. "The trend is your friend". So is dependable, non hype, weather information. We've got you covered there. Is there's anything to worry about, I PROMISE to let you know. At this point, that's simply not the case.
 

Grandadmiral

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Yes, agreed.

Now ... troughs off the coast of Africa and disturbances in the western Atlantic with a 10% chance of developing ... do they bear watching?
After watching the news, the one near Florida may warrant watching. While it has only a 10% chance of developing over the next 2 days, it jumps to 40% over the next week.
 

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