***TROPICAL ALERT*** Hurricane Sally (Tropical systems are going into 2020 mode) (2 Viewers)

Yes, agreed.

Now ... troughs off the coast of Africa and disturbances in the western Atlantic with a 10% chance of developing ... do they bear watching?
After watching the news, the one near Florida may warrant watching. While it has only a 10% chance of developing over the next 2 days, it jumps to 40% over the next week.
 
Nothing of significant concern for the CONUS. Just a lot of systems to watch in a cursory way ATM. We are still in the midst of the peek, downside of it, but another two weeks and we (New Orleans) should be in good shape once we can get a front thru here.
 
That orange X in the gulf is worrisome and that giant red splotch coming off the African coast is pointing this way. Paulette and Rene are looking like fish storms, so no trouble there.
The orange X, near the Bahama’s at this time, is looking like it will be a tropical wave in the GOM with a 20% chance of development. The 3rd system coming off of Africa, looks to be a fish system like Rene and Paulette.
 
From a meteorologist in Tampa that I like because he doesn't hype or try to scare people..

You are going to see A LOT of tropical posts the next few weeks on social media. Nothing unusual about that, "tis the season". PLEASE choose your weather source carefully. Our "red blob" has dependable model runs ranging from hitting the US to harmlessly going out to sea. Bottom line, model runs are terribly inaccurate this far out, so don't stress too much over changes. Look for a trend. "The trend is your friend". So is dependable, non hype, weather information. We've got you covered there. Is there's anything to worry about, I PROMISE to let you know. At this point, that's simply not the case.
I think this is the approach
While there should be significant consequences for deliberately misleading the public (and some penalty for doing it unintentionally) I don’t think information should be controlled at the output level-
We need to shift a chunk of our education to media literacy so the entire public is better armed against sensationalism (and propaganda). Then the output will get policed simply by a better prepared public
 
From Jeff Lindner:

There are multiple areas of interest across the Atlantic basin.

The focus will be on the potential developments in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week.

Disturbance 1 (east of the Bahamas):
While there is no evidence of the low level circulation, there does appear to be a weak mid level circulation associated with the tropical wave east of the Bahamas. The wave is featuring scattered to numerous convection. No development is expected in the near term (through 48 hours) as this feature moves westward across the Bahamas and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Once in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, conditions appears favorable for some intensification as the system moves slowly toward the WNW.

NHC gives the system a 50% chance of development over the next 5 days

Disturbance 2 (Eastern Gulf of Mexico):
An area of disturbed weather over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will move west and then WSW/SW into the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. At this time development chances are low…around 20%. However this system is likely to bring an increase in moisture to SE TX starting as early as late Sunday.

Additional systems in the far eastern Atlantic are forecast to develop, but it is too soon to have any confidence on any track and intensity solutions.
 

96L is expected to bring heavy rains to south Florida over the weekend and enter the eastern GOM
early next week. Interests in Florida and the northern gulf should pay close attention. We are now
at the peak of the season and these can blow up quickly.
 
Yes, agreed.

Now ... troughs off the coast of Africa and disturbances in the western Atlantic with a 10% chance of developing ... do they bear watching?
This time of year it is an annual ritual to be prepared for a hurricane by having some necessary items on hand for each family along with some evacuation plans thought out in advance based on the track and strength of a storm that might end up in your immediate area. But there's a big difference between 'watching' a storm versus being 'concerned' about one. When they are a long way out in the Atlantic, very few of the invests are forecast to be at the right latitude (and moving into favorable conditions) to warrant any immediate action for the northern Gulf coast region. But obviously the more favorable the forecast track & the more ripe the conditions, the more attention a storm will receive by the residents who live anywhere along the coast of the GOM. Long time residents tend to make decisions based on the susceptibility of their homes & property in conjunction with the storm's strength and path as it makes landfall. And others just stay home no matter what simply because they are willing to 'chance it' rather than go through all the hassle of leaving town. Sadly, some have little or no choice about whether to leave town even when the threat is real & serious. :(
 
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96L MLC and LLC are slowly coming into alignment. Could get interesting in SE GOM over the weekend. One tropical model, although not totally relied upon, shows a CAT 1 hurricane out of 96L in the GOM.

Whatever becomes/or not becomes of 96L appears, as in the trends, to be headed straight thru the Florida straits and then into the SE GOM, with a heading bringIng all the mess towards the NC gulf coast. MS/SELA general area. We’ll see. But stay tuned for those of us that live in the NC gulf coast. Things have changed SLIGHTLY, overnight.
 
Radar image, out of the Bahamas, with a suspicious swirl, near and just east of Andros island.
 
Jeff Lindner:
96L:
Tropical wave/trough over the central Bahamas is becoming somewhat better organized this morning with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms near and to the east of the trough axis. Surface observations from the Bahamas do not indicate that any sort of low level circulation has developed, but there appears to be a mid level circulation east of the trough axis. This feature is moving toward the west and will move across FL tonight and Saturday and into the SE/E Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Conditions in the eastern Gulf of Mexico appear to be conducive for the formation of a tropical system and NHC has increased the potential for develop with 96L to 60% over the next 5 days. A general track toward the WNW or in the direction of the north-central Gulf coast between Louisiana and the FL panhandle is mostly likely by early next week.

In addition to 96L, there is a trough o low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that will move westward and then southwest into the western Gulf late this weekend and early next week. This feature is currently void of any significant thunderstorms activity and conditions, are only marginally conducive for development as it moves into the western Gulf. The NHC currently gives this system a 30% chance of development over the next 5 days.

At this time, the potential main impacts in SE TX with either of these systems appears to be an increase in rain chances starting on Sunday as deeper tropical moisture moves into the area.
 

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