***TROPICAL ALERT*** TROPICAL STORM ETA (Late season tropical outlook discussion) (3 Viewers)

Last Euro I looked at seemed to be a western outlier.

A western shift would give central LA yet another round. At this point, it's whatever. Just come on, do what you gotta do, and go the hell on.
 
This is STILL going on? OmG! When does it end? I'm not familiar with hurricanes but is it normal to keep hitting the same areas over and over?
 
Last Euro I looked at seemed to be a western outlier.
Euro is always a west outlier, for whatever reason, as say compared to the GFS. And the GFS is an east outlier, compared to the EURO. The TVCN model is the one the NHC tends to lean towards. In reality, the EURO and GFS as combined, provide a pretty good forecast track, within 72 hours of landfall. We are now within 60 hours of landfall. The NHC is pretty close on their landfall forecast within 72 hours and within 60 hours, are almost dead on.

I would say, SELA takes the bullet this time. Anywhere from MC, over to Grand Isle.
 
This is crazy! How are people able to clean up after the previous one? I know the one back in August was particularly devastating.
Something to remember:

Even with a hurricane as severe as Laura ... it's not like communities are reduced to rubble. Home damage is generally (not 100% of the time) fixable and recovery in place can happen within a few weeks. Maybe within two or three months in the worst cases. Speaking in generalities here -- any individual can be worse off than the general case, and the lots of these individuals will be the ones to make the national news.

You're in the L.A. area -- how we think of earthquakes might be analogous to how you might think of hurricanes. To me, when you say "earthquake", I see this in my head:


That, to me, is the default earthquake. If I were in L.A. and felt any kind of shaking, no matter how mild, the first thing I'd think of is "This building ... this neighborhood ... this whole CITY is going to turn into a wasteland of rubble!" But that never really happens, does it? At most, maybe some severe localized damage, right? But generally, life in L.A. or San Francisco carries on after a major earthquake, right? In general.
 
Something to remember:

Even with a hurricane as severe as Laura ... it's not like communities are reduced to rubble. Home damage is generally (not 100% of the time) fixable and recovery in place can happen within a few weeks. Maybe within two or three months in the worst cases. Speaking in generalities here -- any individual can be worse off than the general case, and the lots of these individuals will be the ones to make the national news.

You're in the L.A. area -- how we think of earthquakes might be analogous to how you might think of hurricanes. To me, when you say "earthquake", I see this in my head:


That, to me, is the default earthquake. If I were in L.A. and felt any kind of shaking, no matter how mild, the first thing I'd think of is "This building ... this neighborhood ... this whole CITY is going to turn into a wasteland of rubble!" But that never really happens, does it? At most, maybe some severe localized damage, right? But generally, life in L.A. or San Francisco carries on after a major earthquake, right? In general.

You're right! When I think of hurricanes I immediately think "Katrina!". Earthquakes aren't so bad and they're usually over in seconds. I spent the first 12 years of life in Michigan and since I've moved here in the mid 90s, I haven't experienced a terrible one. Hurricanes usually last hours, right? Just the thought of that happening for hours is terrifying!

Even the thunderstorms in Louisiana are intense! I remember it stormed one night before a Saints game that I attended and that had to be the worst thunderstorm I've ever been in. :oops: :LOL:
 
Something to remember:

Even with a hurricane as severe as Laura ... it's not like communities are reduced to rubble. Home damage is generally (not 100% of the time) fixable and recovery in place can happen within a few weeks. Maybe within two or three months in the worst cases. Speaking in generalities here -- any individual can be worse off than the general case, and the lots of these individuals will be the ones to make the national news.

You're in the L.A. area -- how we think of earthquakes might be analogous to how you might think of hurricanes. To me, when you say "earthquake", I see this in my head:


That, to me, is the default earthquake. If I were in L.A. and felt any kind of shaking, no matter how mild, the first thing I'd think of is "This building ... this neighborhood ... this whole CITY is going to turn into a wasteland of rubble!" But that never really happens, does it? At most, maybe some severe localized damage, right? But generally, life in L.A. or San Francisco carries on after a major earthquake, right? In general.
I have a friend in Buffalo . He tells me Blizzards are no fun either. The city’s power system can freeze up affecting electricity and sewage. Bridges and roads freeze up in ice for days. If you get the ice of roof of car and house it can cave in. Does not sound like fun.
 
I have a friend in Buffalo . He tells me Blizzards are no fun either. The city’s power system can freeze up affecting electricity and sewage. Bridges and roads freeze up in ice for days. If you get the ice of roof of car and house it can cave in. Does not sound like fun.
That's certainly true.

However ... I bet Buffalo sends kids to school in winter weather far, far worse than New Orleans could tolerate.

For instance ... any snow accumulation here in NOLA (last I remember was Xmas 2004) automatically shuts down a bunch of bridges and interstates. If school were in session that day (instead of it being Christmas), I'm sure school would've been called off. But no way Buffalo NY shuts down for 0.25" snow accumulation.
 
im just tired of binding restrictions .

im in insurance- when a named storm gets into gulf, most of my carriers halt any new business. ( property ) . This storm will do this yet again for the 7th time this hurricane season. This is insane.
Dude. Preach on. This thing isn't even in the Gulf yet and all I can do is birch about politics at work until Thursday...again.
 
Latest Euro is slightly east of the 06z z run.

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