***TROPICAL ALERT*** TROPICAL STORM ETA (Late season tropical outlook discussion) (2 Viewers)

Most recent model runs have nudged landfall to the west ever so slightly by about 15-20 miles. Will be interesting to see if the NHC moves their track west accordingly at the 10am advisory. And for the record. Tracks are only updated at the regular advisories; 10am, 4pm, 10pm, 4am and not at the intermediate (update) advisories. Just in case anyone was wondering when their track forecasts are updated.
 
Most recent model runs have nudged landfall to the west ever so slightly by about 15-20 miles. Will be interesting to see if the NHC moves their track west accordingly at the 10am advisory. And for the record. Tracks are only updated at the regular advisories; 10am, 4pm, 10pm, 4am and not at the intermediate (update) advisories. Just in case anyone was wondering when their track forecasts are updated.

The alert on my phone has it moving 14mph last update at 4am, this was up by 2mph from yesterday, the troph might not get to it fast enough forcing it more west.
 
Some of the reliable intensity models, recently indicate a possible CAT 3 intensity at landfall. Michael a couple of years ago was a similar scenario but not quite as late in the season by a few weeks as Zeta.

Reading some of the latest messages from a couple of pro mets, they are NOT calling for a CAT 3, but they are sounding their alarms for people to not get caught by surprise. Be warned is their point. Very odd setup.
 
Hurricane warnings and storm surge warnings are issued for the central US Gulf coast.

Discussion:

Zeta made landfall over the NE Yucatan overnight near Cozumel with sustained winds of 80mph. Numerous observations sites recorded winds sustained at hurricane force. This is the third hurricane landfall over the NE Yucatan in the last month…Gamma, Delta, and now Zeta. Since making landfall, the cloud pattern of Zeta has decreased some and consists o a large curved band to the west and east of the center. Overall the cloud pattern remains well defined and Zeta will be moving back over the warm waters of the southern Gulf late this morning.

Track:
Zeta continues to move 305 degrees or NW around 13mph and this motion will continue today as Zeta rounds the SW side of a mid level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A strong deep layer trough over the SW US will begin to eject eastward into TX on Wednesday and this feature will capture Zeta and turn the hurricane quickly northward and then northeastward with a landfall likely over SE LA or the MS coast late Wednesday into early Thursday. Global, hurricane, and ensemble models are strongly clustered with this track reasoning showing little cross track spread in solutions. The official NHC forecast track is down the center of the guidance cluster and near the consensus mean.

Zeta will quickly accelerate toward the US Gulf coast over the next 24 hours and this requires hurricane warnings to be issued at this time.

Given the expected increase in forward speed, Zeta will bring strong winds far inland over MS and AL and likely across the metro New Orleans area.

Intensity:
Interaction with the land areas of the NE Yucatan has resulted in some weakening of Zeta this morning, but the storm will move back over the warm Gulf of Mexico shortly where conditions are favorable for intensification. Most of the intensity guidance has come in a bit stronger with Zeta over the Gulf of Mexico and this appears reasonable given the narrow favorable area of upper level conditions Zeta will be passing through. As Zeta turns northward on Wednesday, wind shear will be increasing and sea surface temperatures decreasing, but the fast forward motion of Zeta will likely result in less weakening than would be expected for a slower moving hurricane.

It is likely that Zeta will reach the central US Gulf coast as a hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday over SE LA and MS.

Impacts:
Storm surge flooding of 4-6 feet above the ground will be possible over SE LA and coastal MS outside of the hurricane risk reduction systems. Storm surge of 2-4 feet will extend west toward Vermillion Bay and eastward toward the AL and NW FL panhandle coasts.

Winds of 75-85mph will be possible along the track of Zeta with significant wind gusts extending well inland over eastern LA, MS, and AL as Zeta accelerates NE. This will result in a large area of downed trees and power outages well inland away from the coast and across the New Orleans metro area.

Rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches are likely along the track of Zeta.

Locally:
Seas will be building into the 5-10 foot range on Wednesday across the upper TX coastal waters and tides will run 1-2 feet above normal. As a strong high pressure builds in the southern plains behind the departing upper level trough and Zeta moves NE over the SE US, strong northerly winds will develop over SE TX on Thursday. Winds of 25-35mph will be possible.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
 
Man, I'm sick of these hurricanes. The northern gulf was supposed to be too cold and too much shear for this to happen again. All that shear has cleared out and now we may be looking at a legit hurricane.
 
This ice storm is coming at a bad time of the year. Trees haven't dropped all their leaves so there is tremendously more weight added to the branches.
 
Man, I'm sick of these hurricanes. The northern gulf was supposed to be too cold and too much shear for this to happen again. All that shear has cleared out and now we may be looking at a legit hurricane.
Over on the West Bank ... I'm mentally in the "it can't POSSIBLY be a life-affecting storm" headspace right now. Not going for extra groceries. Not stocking up on water (assuming taps will be unaffected). Only concern is a prolonged power outage.
 
Models are pretty much coming coming into agreement now.

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Man, I'm sick of these hurricanes. The northern gulf was supposed to be too cold and too much shear for this to happen again. All that shear has cleared out and now we may be looking at a legit hurricane.
There is a cutoff low in west Texas/New Mexico region, preventing the front from progressing eastward. With that, it also helps with a better environment in the GOM for intensification as there will be better upper level conditions and virtually zero to minimal shear. The shear will not be in oplay until after Zeta makes landfall.
 

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