***TROPICAL ALERT*** TROPICAL STORM ETA (Late season tropical outlook discussion) (2 Viewers)

[bclemms]

Very much? NOAA only has it at 20%

NOAA (more accurately the NHC) isn't models. That is a 20% chance of formation in the next 5 days. Most of the models have development in the 6-8 day range. When I say most of the models I'm referring to the Euro, CMC, GFS and most ensemble members. The Icon does not develop beyond a broad area of low pressure. It'll likely go to 40% by tomorrow evening then 70% by the weekend if model trends continue.

Edit: Nevermind, 18z ICON begins to develop into at least a depression as well but 6z and 18z ICON only go out 120 hours as opposed to 240 hours on the 00z and 12z runs. So all the models develop it into a tropical system of some sort.

 

[bclemms]

Also, just for fun since I'm not really a fan of the GFS parallel and it is just one of dozens of solutions.

 

[Saintman2884]

NOAA (more accurately the NHC) isn't models. That is a 20% chance of formation in the next 5 days. Most of the models have development in the 6-8 day range. When I say most of the models I'm referring to the Euro, CMC, GFS and most ensemble members. The Icon does not develop beyond a broad area of low pressure. It'll likely go to 40% by tomorrow evening then 70% by the weekend if model trends continue.

Edit: Nevermind, 18z ICON begins to develop into at least a depression as well but 6z and 18z ICON only go out 120 hours as opposed to 240 hours on the 00z and 12z runs. So all the models develop it into a tropical system of some sort.

And let me guess, this low pressure system will naturally develop into something in the forking Caribbean because even when ocean temperatures are cooling down or not nearly as warm or hot in the GOM or even the Atlantic, that deceptively large sized boiling sheet of water always stays hot enough for these pieces of sheet systems to develop SO MUCH EASIER than most other areas comparatively speaking 2-3 months ago?

You've, as well as many other SR members on here know me well enough to be a cynic and this gosh darned year has hardened that cynicism even more so that occasionally, it takes some effort to not be a nasty, bitter butt crevasse who looks for confrontation, verbally or emotionally. So don't think I'm attacking or hating on you or anyone else, it's just this forking, bullshirt year I hate, PROUDLY 100x louder, viciously then the last word in bold letters above and it seems this hurricane season is seemingly trying to screw us royally and kill a few of us, until it's mid-November.

 

[bclemms]

And let me guess, this low pressure system will naturally develop into something in the forking Caribbean because even when ocean temperatures are cooling down or not nearly as warm or hot in the GOM or even the Atlantic, that deceptively large sized boiling sheet of water always stays hot enough for these pieces of sheet systems to develop SO MUCH EASIER than most other areas comparatively speaking 2-3 months ago?

You've, as well as many other SR members on here know me well enough to be a cynic and this gosh darned year has hardened that cynicism even more so that occasionally, it takes some effort to not be a nasty, bitter butt crevasse who looks for confrontation, verbally or emotionally. So don't think I'm attacking or hating on you or anyone else, it's just this forking, bullshirt year I hate, PROUDLY 100x louder, viciously then the last word in bold letters above and it seems this hurricane season is seemingly trying to screw us royally and kill a few of us, until it's mid-November.

Pretty much. Only small areas of the gulf can support a storm of significance. The Caribbean can support storms well into November but it becomes less likely due to increased shear and less waves developing off Africa. So yes, it appears that development will likely take place in the closest area to the lower 48 that can support something strong. Then again, nothing is going to form in the central or northern Gulf because it simply can't support anything more than a very weak system so it's pulling a 2020 by default.

 

[bclemms]

Something to watch with this storm in the Caribbean likely to form next week. Water plenty warm enough to support a strong hurricane, globals showing very little shear and slow moving giving it plenty of time to develop. Here's the thing though, if this thing runs up through the Bahamas and up the East Coast it will be late October. Super Storm Sandy, The Perfect Storm and the Storm of the Century all happened in late October. The troughing pulling the storm north would create a very good environment for storm merger and creating another super storm.

Even with the favorable pattern and peak climo for this scenario the odds are still small that it comes to fruition like that but it's certainly notable and something to watch for. NHC is up to 30% on formation, they'll likely increase those odds later today.

 

[Doug B]

No, this is one developing from the gyre near central America, same place Delta formed.

Eight days later ... is that same gyre still around?

I see there's a thing down off the northern coast of Honduras with a ~10% chance to develop over the next five days.

TS Epsilon, meanwhile, looks like a fish storm.

Forecasters tracking 2 disturbances in Caribbean and Atlantic, including Tropical Storm Epsilon

Epsilon is not expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico.

www.nola.com

 

[bclemms]

Eight days later ... is that same gyre still around?

I see there's a thing down off the northern coast of Honduras with a ~10% chance to develop over the next five days.

TS Epsilon, meanwhile, looks like a fish storm.

Forecasters tracking 2 disturbances in Caribbean and Atlantic, including Tropical Storm Epsilon

Epsilon is not expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico.

www.nola.com

Nope, it was in all the models up until Epsilon started to develop and break down the ridging needed for a storm to develop in the gyre. Now there is a cape verde storm showing up at the end of the some of the later GFS rund but it's way out there and pretty unlikely. Gulf is likely done, still some threat for places like Puerto Rico, Virgin islands and southern Florida up to outer banks but most of that area is going to be fading fast too. It's going to take a while for water temps in the Caribbean to cool enough to put a nail in the coffin of the 2020 season.

 

[bonnjer]

Good. I tyre of the gyre.

 

[Madmarsha]

 

[buzd]

 

[DaveXA]

I thought we were done with this...well, I hope its a nothing burger.

 

[superchuck500]

GFS shows a disorganized low pressure system moving up to the LA/MS coastal area, and then moving west to the panhandle. But nothing with any real organization.

 

[buzd]

 

[efil4stnias]

AHHHHHHHHAHAaaaaa...if 2020 has taught us ANYTHING in SELA....when those initial models all converge on SELA, dont alter your plans.

Sheeesh SELA is like a magnet for initial model runs.

 

[gboudx]

There's a cold front coming through DFW right now and then early next week there's a big arctic front coming down. I'm sure these will impact whatever is down there.