***TROPICAL ALERT*** TROPICAL STORM ETA (Late season tropical outlook discussion) (9 Viewers)

[Doug B]

Yikes, GFS currently has that thing coming in at 957 mb. That'll mess up somebody's day.

Can you post a link? How can we see the GFS models?

 

[bonnjer]

Can you post a link? How can we see the GFS models?

The 06z at 312 hours

GFS Model

GFS model forecast of MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[Doug B]

The 06z at 312 hours

GFS Model

GFS model forecast of MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS

www.tropicaltidbits.com

312 hours = 13 days out.

EDIT: And they run predictions out to 384 hours -- 16 days. I'd have thought weather systems were too chaotic to go out that far.

 

[gboudx]

I wouldn't believe anything the GFS shows going out that far. I believe the main thing forecasters may consider are the forecasted upper-air patterns. That's if they consider anything that far out at all.

 

[bonnjer]

312 hours = 13 days out.

EDIT: And they run predictions out to 384 hours -- 16 days. I'd have thought weather systems were too chaotic to go out that far.

I wouldn't believe anything the GFS shows going out that far. I believe the main thing forecasters may consider are the forecasted upper-air patterns. That's if they consider anything that far out at all.

Oh, I know it's wayyyy out there, but at this point, I don't put anything past this storm season. I'm just hoping that the models are just being extra 2020.

 

[bclemms]

Yes, I was mentioning it in passing as something to watch, nothing more. The accuracy of models that far out are notoriously bad.

 

[brandon8283]

Yes, I was mentioning it in passing as something to watch, nothing more. The accuracy of models that far out are notoriously bad.

This actually popped on the GFS around Sunday or Monday but then fizzled early in the week. I didn’t think it was worth mentioning because it was so far out...but now it’s showing up again.

 

[Merl]

The National Hurricane center shows nothing that can effect the SE U.S. other than the remnants of Beta for once. The forecast for tomorrow and it looks like no where in LA will see any rain tomorrow with temps much lower than we have had since early spring. I am going to enjoy tomorrow's weather while I am working for once this year here in NE LA. with temps in the Low '70's and no rain is perfect weather for those of us that work 75% outside, climbing of 28 foot ladder on utility poles, running cable lines either through an attic or wrapped around the building. For the next 3 months we are finally getting to the best time of the year for my job.

 

[faceman]

I wouldn't believe anything the GFS shows going out that far. I believe the main thing forecasters may consider are the forecasted upper-air patterns. That's if they consider anything that far out at all.

Yeah,anything beyond 7 days is fantasy land. Just like that the latest GFS goes poof.

GFS Model

GFS model forecast of MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[bclemms]

Yeah,anything beyond 7 days is fantasy land. Just like that the latest GFS goes poof.

GFS Model

GFS model forecast of MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS

www.tropicaltidbits.com

It's still developing the storm from the Central America Gyre but now it's developing the wave over the Pacific side. That gyre is something to watch though, it's a common spot for storm development early and late in the season. The 7-12 day range can actually do well with tropical development but more with Cape Verde systems and simply on development, placement can be wildly off in that range. Models can also produce "ghost" storms which usually come from areas of larger low pressure (like the CA gyre) typically these "ghost storms" for at the end of the run and will even show up consistently but never get closer in time with each run. This one was showing it rather consistenly for several days and developing it early with each run. The GFS is also notoriously fast and over aggressive with troughing in the 5+ day range and that really starts to impact tropics late in Septembers into October. The deep troughing that was pushing the wave from Central America into the Caribbean is now coming in much slower allowing trade flow to push the wave to the Pacific side.

My main point in even posting that was completely different though. I've been hearing a lot of "the season is over" talk because there will be a cold front. The season should never be called over in September and that just served as an easy reminder. I'm even seeing some mets doing it. The idea an early fall cold front will impact GOM SST's enough to end hurricane season is simply absurd.

 

[faceman]

My main point in even posting that was completely different though. I've been hearing a lot of "the season is over" talk because there will be a cold front. The season should never be called over in September and that just served as an easy reminder. I'm even seeing some mets doing it. The idea an early fall cold front will impact GOM SST's enough to end hurricane season is simply absurd.

That cold front will also stall in the gulf. Storms can develop from those. I don't feel comfortable until the SST of the northern gulf drops below 80. Right now it's 83.

 

[bclemms]

That cold front will also stall in the gulf. Storms can develop from those. I don't feel comfortable until the SST of the northern gulf drops below 80. Right now it's 83.

Yup and much warmer in the central Gulf and Caribbean. Northern Gulf is cool from upwelling from the past 3 storms but will likely increase some in temps as the gulf loop "refreshes" the water with water from the Caribbean which is still baking. I do think we are in much better shape than a month ago but the whole "it's over" talk is absurd. It's really not over for southern Florida who tends to become a favorable landing spot for late season storms.

 

[bonnjer]

All I know is that I'm tired of tornadoes, hurricanes, tropical storms, wind, and rain for the year. 2020 has not been kind in my area in regard to those things.

 

[gboudx]

I just want to point out that currently in the Atlantic Basin, there are no tropical systems, nor any Invests. Take a breath.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

I just want to point out that currently in the Atlantic Basin, there are no tropical systems, nor any Invests. Take a breath.

unless that's exactly what the tropics wants us to do