***TROPICAL ALERT*** TROPICAL STORM ETA (Late season tropical outlook discussion) (8 Viewers)

[St. Widge]

I would have been concerned about an alpha hurricane, but this will just be a beta one.

It will probably just end up in the friend zone. While some other storm is sticking it to us.

 

[bclemms]

Beta can kiss my arse. I'm freaking exhausted.

 

[superchuck500]

Beta can kiss my arse. I'm freaking exhausted.

Outstanding work Brandon. Top shelf.

 

[bclemms]

Outstanding work Brandon. Top shelf.

Thanks, trying to find the will needed to do another slow progressing storm. Between Laura and Sally I went to Denver for the summer snow event because I thought we were getting a 2-3 week break. Instead, I ended up going down a week before Sally for prep and left 3 days after to come home, pack, drive to DFW to fly to Denver, was there for a few days. Then flew back to DFW, drove straight to Lake Charles to finish shooting areas I couldn't get to. Had to cut that short to go home, do laundry then drive back to NOLA to start on Sally prep coverage. Just got back home last night, doing laundry and about to head out again. I've had 1 night in my bed in 30 days and looks like I'll be out another week. I'm just thankful we aren't dealing with massive covid outbreaks like earlier in the year and can feel somewhat safe enough to sleep in hotels. Reminds me of the 2005 season, thankfully we haven't had the "Katrina" yet this season and hopefully we wont.

 

[gboudx]

Are you doing all of those for your job? If so, are you hiring?

 

[livefromDC]

See I'm the opposite. I think weather would be more accessible if we named everything. "We have cold front Franz approaching from the north arriving Tuesday. Until then, expect light breeze Alice to pass over and clouds Sven, Gary, and Lucy will be in the area.".

It's much more friendly.

All snowstorms should be called Karen.

 

[bclemms]

Are you doing all of those for your job? If so, are you hiring?

Yes, but no. I'd rather deal with hurricanes, tornadoes and volcanoes than employees, absolutely no offense intended. lol

 

[Dan in Lafayette]

Yes, but no. I'd rather deal with hurricanes, tornadoes and volcanoes than employees, absolutely no offense intended. lol

Brandon, you must be exhausted. You're sounding like Bobby Hebert.

 

[superchuck500]

Brandon, you must be exhausted. You're sounding like Bobby Hebert.

In fairness, it was a two part question.

 

[gboudx]

It's officially Tropical Storm Beta.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BETA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 93.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the
progress of Beta. Storm Surge and Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watches will likely be required for portions of the western Gulf
coast tonight or on Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 93.1 West. Beta is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected through Saturday. A slow westward
motion is forecast to begin late Saturday or Saturday night, and
this motion will likely continue into early next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Beta will approach western coast of
the Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is expected
through the weekend, and Beta could be near hurricane strength
Sunday or Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas
and the Gulf Coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a
combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of
Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

 

[gboudx]

 

[gboudx]

Slow moving strong tropical storm or hurricane likely over the NW Gulf of Mexico late this weekend and much of next week.

Preparations for prolonged coastal flooding and potentially rainfall flooding should begin.

Overall the structure of the system has become better organized today, and the next USAF mission should be in the system later today and this evening to assess the intensity trends. There have been no significant track or intensity chances since earlier this morning.

Impacts

Tides/Storm Surge:
Strong ENE/E winds will be developing along the upper TX coast later today and on Saturday as the pressure gradient increases. This will result in a favorable transport of sea water toward the coast. Additionally increasing winds of 20-35kts over our coastal waters this weekend will result in building seas into the 8-15 foot range. These large swells will begin to result in wave run-up along the coast. Based on the various factors water levels will begin rising on Saturday along the coast and reach into warning levels on Sunday. Current forecast shows at least 4.0-5.0 feet above MLLW (barnacle level) and could even reach near 6.0 feet or 2-3 feet above MHHW (vegetation line). Impacts begin around 4.5 ft MLLW at several locations along the upper TX coast.

Low lying roadways near the coast will likely flood at times of high tide and some locations could become isolated. Significant beach erosion is likely with elevated tides and large wave action lasting for several days and coastal infrastructure could be damaged. The expected tides on Sunday will likely be 1.5-2.5 feet higher than those experienced with Laura and Hanna.

DO NOT get caught off guard with the expected water level rise along the coast and understand the low lying coastal roads may be inundated for a long period of time

Rainfall:
Squalls may begin to approach the coast on Sunday as deep tropical moisture begins to replace the dry air over TX. Squalls will increase in frequency and intensity into Sunday night and Monday and begin to spread farther inland. There will be a sharp cut off in the higher rainfall amounts from south to north over the area with amounts of 10-12 inches likely near the coast and even high offshore lowering to 1-3 inches inland near College Station. Best estimate right now is for 4-6 inches over Harris County.

These rainfall amounts will likely change

Winds:
Tropical storm force winds may begin to arrive along the lower and middle TX coast by Sunday evening and slowly spread NE into coastal SE TX Monday and Tuesday. It is possible that some locations could see 24-48 hours of sustained tropical storm force winds with the slow movement of the system

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

 

[SaintRob]

I was confused that it was Beta. What happened to Alpha? It's hitting Portugal right now!


Edit: Nevermind, I see this has already been covered...

 

[St. Widge]

So, the track for Beta looks a little . . . limp? But what else you going to expect from a Beta?

 

[superchuck500]

So, the track for Beta looks a little . . . limp? But what else you going to expect from a Beta?

Should have quit while you were ahead.