***TROPICAL ALERT*** TROPICAL STORM ETA (Late season tropical outlook discussion) (1 Viewer)

[faceman]

We have been getting rain in Lafayette off and on all night. Here is a screen capture from Wundermap from about 6:55 this morning with dopler radar and wind streams:

Light rain on the Ms coast all day Saturday and expected most of Sunday. Temps are also in the mid 60's. I can't lie. I'm
enjoying the break from the heat.

 

[gboudx]

TS Beta moving slowly WNW toward the Texas coast



Conditions along the coast will begin to deteriorate today into tonight



Flash Flood Watch and Tropical Storm warning are in effect

Discussion:
Beta continues to struggle with dry air over the western side of its circulation and southwesterly wind shear on nearly 20kts. This continues to displace much of the convection to the north and northeast of the center of circulation and has held the intensity of Beta nearly steady since late Friday. USAF plane and numerous observations over the NW Gulf of Mexico indicate that tropical storm force winds extend about 200 miles outward from the center mostly to the north and northeast and 40mph winds are close to the Louisiana coast and will moving into the upper TX coast later today.

Track:
There has been little change in the track reasoning as Beta has started its WNW motion as high pressure has built north of the storm. This WNW motion will continue with an increase in forward speed today and tonight and Beta will be approaching the Matagorda Bay area on Monday and Monday night. As Beta reaches the coast, the high pressure to its north will weaken and slide eastward as a trough approaches from the NW and N this will result in the storm slowing down and turning toward the north. Beta may stall for a period of time near Matagorda Bay or just inland over Matagorda or Jackson Counties before a faster NE motion begins later Tuesday into Thursday. Overall the track confidence is moderate and there has not been much change in this reasoning for the last 24-36 hours.

Intensity:
Southwesterly wind shear is forecast to continue through landfall and Beta will likely remain in a steady state of intensity as the storm moves toward and makes landfall on the TX coast. Tropical storm force winds will be moving into the upper TX coast waters today and spreading toward the coast this afternoon and evening. Sustained tropical storm force winds will likely be experienced along the coast from tonight through potentially Tuesday morning.

Impacts:

Storm Surge:
Tides have rose to 3-5 feet MLLW overnight and coastal flooding has been observed at several locations along the coast and in Galveston Bay. We are near high tide now with the next high tide tonight into Monday morning where total water levels of 4.5-5.5 ft will be possible or about 1-1.5 feet higher than the tides this morning. With ENE/NE winds increasing along with large long period swells increasing today, the coastal flooding situation will remain in place. Swells will be building into the 8-12 foot range near the coast with 15-20 feet offshore. This will result in wave run-up along the coast and keep tides elevated even during times of low tide. Coastal flooding will continue into Monday and Tuesday as Beta moves closer to the coast.

Portions of HWY 87 were overwashed overnight and this morning along with Blue Water Highway west of San Luis Pass.

Rainfall:
A larger areas of moderate to heavy rain has developed over the northern part of Beta’s circulation and this mass of rain and squalls will begin to move toward the TX coast later today. It is likely that the rainfall pattern with Beta will a result of numerous squalls on its eastern and northern side along with some degree of more consistent rainfall near or north of the center. Dry air will be working into the circulation at times and this dry air will change the evolution of the rainfall pattern as time progresses and Beta moves into and across SE TX.

One concern is the potential for banding on the eastern and northeast side of the circulation on Monday and Tuesday and extending into Wednesday as these bands could produce narrow, but excessive rainfall rates in a short period of time. Will have to monitor short term models for this threat.

Due to the slightly faster movement of Beta in the Wednesday and Thursday time period along with the likely dry air intrusions into the system, rainfall amounts have been lowered some

Coast: 8-12 inches
Coastal counties: 7-11 inches
South of I-10: 6-10 inches
South of Hwy 105: 5-7 inches
North of Hwy 105: 3-4 inches

Think most of the bayous and creeks will be able to handle much of this rainfall as long as it does not all fall at once. Most bayous and creeks can currently handle between 6-8 inches of rainfall in a 12 hour period.

WPC has placed much of the area in a slight or moderate risk for flash flooding between 600am Monday and 600am Tuesday

Winds:
Tropical storm force winds will be moving into the coastal areas later today and linger into Monday and Tuesday. Sustained winds of 40-55mph will be possible with a few higher gusts along the immediate coast and beaches. Winds will drop off quickly toward the north with winds of 35-40mph possible to I-10. Not expecting much impact from the winds except maybe right along the immediate coast where some tree damage may occur along with scattered power outages.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

 

[primadox]

Surfers in Galveston:

 

[gboudx]

Tropical Storm moving toward the TX coast

Conditions will continue to deteriorate tonight into Monday.

Discussion:
While the radar presentation of Beta improved early this afternoon, the radar beam was hitting the storm at nearly 15,000ft above the Gulf surface and what was seen was the formation of a mid level eye tilted strongly to the NW from the low level center to the southeast. Since a USAF mission was out there at the time, the plane was able to fix the low level center and the mid level center and note the large displacement. That is all a fancy way of saying that Beta is not intensifying and most recently it appears dry air has started to wrap into the mid level center and erode the earlier vigorous convection. Beta is moving toward the WNW and this motion should continue through landfall on the Texas coast near Matagorda County.

Track/Intensity:
There have been no changes to the track and intensity forecast today, with a tropical storm making landfall over eastern Matagorda Bay or Matagorda County late Monday into early Tuesday and then moving NE along or just north of the US 59 corridor Tuesday into Wednesday.

A large area of tropical storm force winds over the NE Gulf of Mexico is starting to approach and move onto the upper Texas coast

Impacts:

Tides:
Coastal flooding has been ongoing for much of the day and will again worsen tonight with the overnight high tide. Expected values of 3.0-4.5 and maybe 5.0 feet above normally dry ground along the coast and the inland bays. These levels will be 1-3 feet higher than hurricane Laura and Hanna. Additionally, large wave action of 8-12 feet will be breaking near the coast and leading to wave run-up and overwash. These high tides and waves will last into Monday and Tuesday as Beta approaches and makes landfall on the coast. And tides will only slowly subside Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The prolonged nature of the coastal flood event and wave action will likely result in some degree of damage to coastal beaches, dunes, and infrastructure.

Rainfall:
As mention several times already, the evolution of the rain field with Beta will be changing overtime as dry air wraps into and through the system. As noted today, there will be times of intense convective bursts followed by times of little activity. Additionally, much of the area will fall within the eastern “dirty” side of the circulation field and this will at times promote training feeder bands that can produce short term very heavy rainfall. The potential for these training bands are the most concerning part of the rainfall forecast as they can quickly lead to flash flooding.

Coast: 8-12 inches
Coastal counties: 7-11 inches
South of I-10: 6-10 inches
South of Hwy 105: 5-7 inches
North of Hwy 105: 3-4 inches

WPC has much of the area south of US 59 in a moderate risk for flash flooding on Monday and nearly all of SE TX in a slight risk on Tuesday.

Winds:
Tropical storm force winds are nearing the coast and will spread into the coast and Galveston Bay tonight. Expect winds of 40-50mph with higher gusts. Highest gust will likely come in squalls and any sustain thunderstorms activity hat may transport higher winds to the surface. Inland away from the coast winds of 25-35mph are most likely with a few gusts possibly to 40-45mph in squalls.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

 

[HoustonGold]

Anyone live in Greenland?

 

[Saintman2884]

Anyone live in Greenland?

Ragnar Lothbrok, Eric the Red(actual Old Norse Viking founder of Greenland), Leif Ericson, Freydis, Floki must all be duly informed on this rapidly occurring rare, weather phenomenon. It appears Thor's mighty hammer is creating a mild but noticeable tempest that is odd, irregular, and whose form, intensity is different than the brutal ice, cold and chill the Frost Giants conjure on occasion.

BTW, as evident by this reply to this TS/Hurricane thread, I am a big Vikings fan, historical ones, their medieval Hell's Angels and mythical or semi-historical characters, adventures, and events which transpired during the Viking Age. I am clearly acting out as a huge fan but I advise those still interested in show to watch final 10 episodes of Season 6B of Vikings debuting probably in mid-late November and the Netflix spin-off Vikings: Valhalla debuting next year in 2021.

Don't take most, if any of the above-mentioned rant seriously. It's completely silly and absurd and pointless, so there is the truth.

 

[Dago]

Saint Ward,
I want to personally apologize to you. I snapped on emotions the other day. I just lost it. This whole year has exhausted me but I should have never snapped at you. Sorry again.

Props for doing that man

 

[DaveXA]

Ragnar Lothbrok, Eric the Red(actual Old Norse Viking founder of Greenland), Leif Ericson, Freydis, Floki must all be duly informed on this rapidly occurring rare, weather phenomenon. It appears Thor's mighty hammer is creating a mild but noticeable tempest that is odd, irregular, and whose form, intensity is different than the brutal ice, cold and chill the Frost Giants conjure on occasion.

BTW, as evident by this reply to this TS/Hurricane thread, I am a big Vikings fan, historical ones, their medieval Hell's Angels and mythical or semi-historical characters, adventures, and events which transpired during the Viking Age. I am clearly acting out as a huge fan but I advise those still interested in show to watch final 10 episodes of Season 6B of Vikings debuting probably in mid-late November and the Netflix spin-off Vikings: Valhalla debuting next year in 2021.

Don't take most, if any of the above-mentioned rant seriously. It's completely silly and absurd and pointless, so there is the truth.

Ok...i think.

 

[gboudx]

Tropical storm conditions along the upper TX coast

Coastal flooding ongoing

Discussion:
Beta is nearing the middle Texas coast and will make landfall later today around Matagorda Bay. While there has been little thunderstorm activity near the center of Beta overnight, recently thunderstorms have begun to develop near the center, but it is unlikely that Beta will intensify any before landfall. Banding to the north of the center has also started to increase recently affecting portions of Brazoria County. Dry air continues to work into and wrap around the large wind field of Beta yielding the disorganized precipitation field with the system.

Tides:
Tides are currently running 4.0-4.5 feet in Clear Lake and across coastal sections of Harris County with several sites near the Gulf beaches running 4.0-4.5 feet. Coastal flooding is ongoing and will remain in place for much of the day. Several roadways are underwater along the coast and around Galveston Bay.

As Beta makes landfall along the middle Texas coast later today, the storm will begin to slow and then turn ENE and move up the TX coast while slowly weakening. This track will keep a favorable onshore flow along the upper Texas coast tonight into Tuesday, so tides will only slowly fall today and remain high into the high tide tonight. Impacts along the coast will continue through the day and into tonight and likely Tuesday.

Rainfall:
Dry air has worked into the circulation of Beta and this is resulted in a more disorganized and scattered rainfall pattern. However, the system is still capable of heavy rainfall especially near the center later today and in bending structures east of the center for the next 48 hours. A review of the various short term models shows several banding features developing through the next 48 hours over SE TX, but little consensus on where any sort of training may occur or where the heaviest rainfall totals may be. Given the fact that much of the area will reside on the eastern side of a slowly weakening tropical system is enough to keep some level of concern of heavy rainfall and flooding in place through the next 48 hours.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches will be possible for areas along and south of I-10 with isolated totals of 10-12 inches under any training feeder bands. Totals to the north of I-10 will likely average 3-5 inches with isolated totals of 6-7 inches.

As long as the rainfall is spread out over the next 48 hours, most of the creeks and bayous will be able to handle the expected rainfall amounts, but should any sustained training banding develop flash flooding would be possible along with significant rises on area creeks and bayous.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

 

[nolaspe]

 

[primadox]

Beta is now moving slower than I can walk. Most schools in the metro Houston area are closed today, due to flooding rains from feeder bands that won’t move. Where I live in the northwest part of Harris county, the forecast last night indicated that we wouldn’t see a lot of heavy rains here, but that has changed, and a lot of the schools closed at the last minute. Southwest Houston is really getting hammered right now, after getting over 13 inches of rain since this all started.

 

[gboudx]

Where I live in the Nnorthwest part of Harris county,

Near Tomball? We were in Tomball Labor Day weekend for a soccer tournament. Nice area.

 

[primadox]

Near Tomball? We were in Tomball Labor Day weekend for a soccer tournament. Nice area.

We're right by Cypress, just south of 290. Yes, Tomball is a very nice area. Their downtown area is very quaint and is fun to go to during the holidays.

 

[primadox]

Lindner 12:30 pm flash flood update:


Center of Beta located between Edna and El Campo at the moment and is starting a very slow ENE drift.

Feeder bands are starting to show some indications of renewed development on the NE side of the circulation form Pearland to Richmond to south of Sealy. The air mass over portions of Brazoria, Galveston, Fort Bend and southern Harris is starting to destabilize with a little bit of heating and this will likely result in continued development of scattered banding features through the afternoon and into the evening hours.

HRRR that did fairly well with the overnight rainfall event shows this well with increasing bands across the area md to late afternoon that continues into much of the evening and overnight hours. This model wants to focus much of the rainfall near and maybe east of I-45, but there is certainly still the potential over Fort Bend and all of Harris into Brazoria and Galveston Counties based on the current radar trends and the location of the surface center.

Additional rainfall totals of 4-7 inches with isolated amounts upwards of 10-12 inches will be possible on top of what has already fallen. Rainfall of this magnitude will result in creek and bayou flooding given that grounds are now saturated and many creeks and bayous are running high.


Watersheds:

Clear Creek: widespread flooding is ongoing along Clear Creek from Pearland to Clear Lake. Homes are flooding on both sides of the creek in Harris, Brazoria and Galveston Counties. The creek is continuing a slow rise and this may continue for the next several hours

Buffalo Bayou: high water levels from The Villages to downtown Houston. Low land flooding is occurring along the channel banks, but no homes are threatened

Brays Bayou: bayou has crested and is falling, but remains very high


Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
713-684-4000 (main) | 713-684-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

 

[bclemms]

Beta is now moving slower than I can walk. Most schools in the metro Houston area are closed today, due to flooding rains from feeder bands that won’t move. Where I live in the northwest part of Harris county, the forecast last night indicated that we wouldn’t see a lot of heavy rains here, but that has changed, and a lot of the schools closed at the last minute. Southwest Houston is really getting hammered right now, after getting over 13 inches of rain since this all started.

SW Houston this morning