***TROPICAL ALERT** Tropical Storm BARRY (previously 92L) (1 Viewer)

Super44

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7/9, 11pm: ADDING LINKS/MAPS TO SUPER44's ORIGINAL POST.

I'll add more as they become available, and will sticky if needed ~primadox
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ORIGINAL POST:
According to the NHC, they have upped the percntage for tropical development to 40%. Of course there is, as typical this point, lots of divergent forecasts. Stay tuned, if you are planning a trip to anywhere along the NGOM, from the big bend of Florida, and west to the SELA area. This area currently appears to be the general area for any potential landfall of a developed system. Even if a TS or Hurricane does not form, the weather looks like it will be pretty crappy.


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NHC PRODUCTS

NHC Home
Tropical Weather Outlook
potential Barry Public Advisory
potential Barry Forecast Discussion
US Watches & Warnings
NWS Local Products


Other links:
WWL Hurricane Central
Mike's Weather Page (lots of links and maps here)
College of DuPage (good site for model runs)
Tropics - wide view (from Hurricane Harbor) - click on the 5 day movie html5 link to animate.
NOAA - Local River Flood level predictions


CURRENT MAPS/FORECASTS/MODELS:


NHC projected track





NHC Projected Track with forecast wind arrival times




Tracking models (courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com)






SATELLITE PRODUCTS

(links to the following maps found at NOAA)
Visual




Infrared




Water Vapor




Radar





CURRENT MAPS/FORECASTS/MODELS:

Tracking models (courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com)



 
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Super44

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Euro and GFS forecast models are now pretty aligned, which is unusual, particularly for a system that is not even formed. We shall see.
 
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Super44

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Possible chance of tropical development now up to 60%. NHC pretty darn confident, for a system that is not even over water. Crazy, but they do a darn good job.
 

Bill

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70% chance of development as of this morning, with more of a westerly movement in most of the models.
This pretty much puts the entire northern Gulf coast as a possible target.
Hopefully it will remain a weak disturbance and move along quickly no matter where it eventually tracks back onshore.
 
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Super44

Super44

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As of 8am, EDT. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.....Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A landfall of whatever this becomes, anywhere from the upper Texas coast, all the way over to about Ft. Walton beach.

The overall trend and consensus is west, with many of the reliable models falling in line with one another. Strength; forecast appears to be a TS, but mostly a potential really wet soaking, possible flooding type of system as it will be a slow mover. Stay tuned.
 

faceman

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As of 8am, EDT. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.....Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A landfall of whatever this becomes, anywhere from the upper Texas coast, all the way over to about Ft. Walton beach.

The overall trend and consensus is west, with many of the reliable models falling in line with one another. Strength; forecast appears to be a TS, but mostly a potential really wet soaking, possible flooding type of system as it will be a slow mover. Stay tuned.

Some euro ensembles have it traveling west to Texas/ LA . border . If those verify,that's a lot of time over very warm water
 

Bill

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Even a tropical disturbance can be a big headache if it is a slow mover. Now that it appears the movement will be toward the west, I just hope it doesn't hug the coast for several days. We sure don't need any more flooding issues around here.
 

efil4stnias

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Even a tropical disturbance can be a big headache if it is a slow mover. Now that it appears the movement will be toward the west, I just hope it doesn't hug the coast for several days. We sure don't need any more flooding issues around here.

like faceman, i just hope is minimal, yet just enough to punch a hole in this high pressure system that is bringing us record heat index daily and some badly needed rain.
 

Saint_Ward

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I like to check out the models here and there, and a few days ago I noticed something forming just off the coast. Crazy.
 

Saint_Ward

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Official now. 92L invest.

About 24hrs. ahead of what was the anticipated invest. notice.
NHC showing a 10% chance of formation.

Interesting that the GFS doesn't really show much.. it may form, then Peter out.

The ECMWF shows something hitting the Texas Louisiana coast. Very early.
 

faceman

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NHC showing a 10% chance of formation.

Interesting that the GFS doesn't really show much.. it may form, then Peter out.

The ECMWF shows something hitting the Texas Louisiana coast. Very early.
!0% chance in 24 hours. 80% chance in 120 hours.
 
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Super44

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Now with an official invest, they will have a starting point. Models will be a changing (flip flopping) until there is a well defined LLC.
 

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