***TROPICAL ALERT** Tropical Storm BARRY (previously 92L) (1 Viewer)

Super44

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Sticky Post
7/9, 11pm: ADDING LINKS/MAPS TO SUPER44's ORIGINAL POST.

I'll add more as they become available, and will sticky if needed ~primadox
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ORIGINAL POST:
According to the NHC, they have upped the percntage for tropical development to 40%. Of course there is, as typical this point, lots of divergent forecasts. Stay tuned, if you are planning a trip to anywhere along the NGOM, from the big bend of Florida, and west to the SELA area. This area currently appears to be the general area for any potential landfall of a developed system. Even if a TS or Hurricane does not form, the weather looks like it will be pretty crappy.


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NHC PRODUCTS

NHC Home
Tropical Weather Outlook
potential Barry Public Advisory
potential Barry Forecast Discussion
US Watches & Warnings
NWS Local Products


Other links:
WWL Hurricane Central
Mike's Weather Page (lots of links and maps here)
College of DuPage (good site for model runs)
Tropics - wide view (from Hurricane Harbor) - click on the 5 day movie html5 link to animate.
NOAA - Local River Flood level predictions


CURRENT MAPS/FORECASTS/MODELS:


NHC projected track





NHC Projected Track with forecast wind arrival times




Tracking models (courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com)






SATELLITE PRODUCTS

(links to the following maps found at NOAA)
Visual




Infrared




Water Vapor




Radar





CURRENT MAPS/FORECASTS/MODELS:

Tracking models (courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com)



 
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superchuck500

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I hope this storm doesn't go all Hurricane Juan on us. It's almost stationary now and doesn't seem to have any real steering currents. Here's what Juan did.

118980
I remember Juan. The schools didn't know what to do - we had a few days off IIRC.
 

SharonT

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I remember Juan. The schools didn't know what to do - we had a few days off IIRC.
Yes! That's the one that saved me from the dunking booth. Our school fair had to be cancelled. From then on I tried not to be the last teacher to volunteer. :D
 

St. Widge

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So it looks like the GFS has moved over to where the NHC had been forcasting the track for the last day or so. Just east of what I think is Vermillion Bay.
 

wnelson

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has there ever been a named storm that hit while the spillway was open and we are on month 5 or so of a river flood warning? this is what makes me somewhat worried... all that water has to have some place to go....
 

efil4stnias

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So it looks like the GFS has moved over to where the NHC had been forcasting the track for the last day or so. Just east of what I think is Vermillion Bay.
gonna be a rain maker - hopefully there will be decent breaks in the banding to offer time for pumps to keep up if we see 10-15" as forecast. I think most will be ok if that 10-15 comes over a period of 36 hrs. But if several come in just an hour or so, it will cause flooding.
 

TheMike62987

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So it looks like the GFS has moved over to where the NHC had been forcasting the track for the last day or so. Just east of what I think is Vermillion Bay.

Not too familiar with the locations you're mentioning Widge. GFS earlier around 12pm had it tracking right over New Orleans. Is the NHC track
more west?
 

Grandadmiral

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has there ever been a named storm that hit while the spillway was open and we are on month 5 or so of a river flood warning? this is what makes me somewhat worried... all that water has to have some place to go....
I doubt it. I know they've already posted that we've never had to deal with a tropical system with the river as high as it is now.
 

St. Widge

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gonna be a rain maker - hopefully there will be decent breaks in the banding to offer time for pumps to keep up if we see 10-15" as forecast. I think most will be ok if that 10-15 comes over a period of 36 hrs. But if several come in just an hour or so, it will cause flooding.
Timing is the key. The problem yesterday was that a good portion of the City got nearly 10 inches of rain in 2 to 3 hours. If that is spread out over 48 hours we can handle it. There would probably be some localized flooding, but probably not anything City wide or really life threatening. I know my street in the Navarre neighborhood flooded but a mile or so a way closer to the Lake on Louis XVI there was no flooding on streets that always flood.
 

St. Widge

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Not too familiar with the locations you're mentioning Widge. GFS earlier around 12pm had it tracking right over New Orleans. Is the NHC track
more west?
The 1:00 GFS has it west of New Orleans coming on shore what looks like south of Franklin, LA which is West of Morgan City. But it could be a little more east of that. That's pretty much what the NHC has been forcasting for the last day or so. Although they had it a little more west at some point.

The good news, for New Orleans at least, is that it looks like there is a large grouping of ensemble models that think it goes much more west. However, the GFS which I think it typically more accurate has it more east where I talked about above.

This is a link to the 1:00 model runs:

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2019/tropical-storm-barry?map=model


This is a link to the ensemble members:

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2019/tropical-storm-barry?map=ensemble
 

efil4stnias

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Timing is the key. The problem yesterday was that a good portion of the City got nearly 10 inches of rain in 2 to 3 hours. If that is spread out over 48 hours we can handle it. There would probably be some localized flooding, but probably not anything City wide or really life threatening. I know my street in the Navarre neighborhood flooded but a mile or so a way closer to the Lake on Louis XVI there was no flooding on streets that always flood.
yeah yesterday was really odd. it almost seemed like the rains ( heaviest ) were just on the orleans/jefferson line thru orleans to East/9th Ward area.

My office in Metairie ( toward airport ) was fine.
 

Bayouboy

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has there ever been a named storm that hit while the spillway was open and we are on month 5 or so of a river flood warning? this is what makes me somewhat worried... all that water has to have some place to go....
Uncharted territory for sure.

There would be widespread panic if this was an organized CAT 1 or CAT2 storm on this track. I read on WeatherUnderground's blog that Hurricane Issac pushed 10 feet of water into the river due to its slow movement and unfavorable track. That would be catastrophic in today's scenerio.
 

St. Widge

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yeah yesterday was really odd. it almost seemed like the rains ( heaviest ) were just on the orleans/jefferson line thru orleans to East/9th Ward area.

My office in Metairie ( toward airport ) was fine.
Downtown, Mid-City and Treme got the bulk of it I think. Also parts of the Garden District.

I mean Dowtown has water that backs up quite a bit, but I have never seen water as high as yesterday around the corner of Loyola and Poydras.
 

TheMike62987

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I think where I'm at (Mandeville north of 190) my primary concern is going to be wind. Unfortunately, a portion of my privacy fence is ready to tumble. Luckily I have the deposit down already to replace it.
 

faceman

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I know you meant this as a joke,but I want to dispel one old wives tale. Taping your windows is a waste of time. Modern glass is
tempered and designed to shatter into thousands of pieces that don't cut. The old joke is not that the wind is blowing, but what
the wind is blowing. Tape isn't going to stop your neighbors 2 X4 he left outside or his mailbox from coming through your window
at 100 mph. Install storm shutters if you live in a hurricane prone area
 

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