***TROPICAL ALERT** Tropical Storm BARRY (previously 92L) (1 Viewer)

Super44

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7/9, 11pm: ADDING LINKS/MAPS TO SUPER44's ORIGINAL POST.

I'll add more as they become available, and will sticky if needed ~primadox
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ORIGINAL POST:
According to the NHC, they have upped the percntage for tropical development to 40%. Of course there is, as typical this point, lots of divergent forecasts. Stay tuned, if you are planning a trip to anywhere along the NGOM, from the big bend of Florida, and west to the SELA area. This area currently appears to be the general area for any potential landfall of a developed system. Even if a TS or Hurricane does not form, the weather looks like it will be pretty crappy.


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NHC PRODUCTS

NHC Home
Tropical Weather Outlook
potential Barry Public Advisory
potential Barry Forecast Discussion
US Watches & Warnings
NWS Local Products


Other links:
WWL Hurricane Central
Mike's Weather Page (lots of links and maps here)
College of DuPage (good site for model runs)
Tropics - wide view (from Hurricane Harbor) - click on the 5 day movie html5 link to animate.
NOAA - Local River Flood level predictions


CURRENT MAPS/FORECASTS/MODELS:


NHC projected track


213204_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
173249_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png



NHC Projected Track with forecast wind arrival times

213204_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png
173249_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png



Tracking models (courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com)

06L_tracks_latest.png
14L_tracks_latest.png
02L_tracks_latest.png





SATELLITE PRODUCTS

(links to the following maps found at NOAA)
Visual

GOES16-GM-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif



Infrared

GOES16-GM-13-1000x1000.gif



Water Vapor

GOES16-GM-08-1000x1000.gif



Radar

new-orleans-louisiana-region-current-radar-animation.gif




CURRENT MAPS/FORECASTS/MODELS:

Tracking models (courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com)


02L_tracks_latest.png

06L_tracks_latest.png
14L_tracks_latest.png
 
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Euro and GFS forecast models are now pretty aligned, which is unusual, particularly for a system that is not even formed. We shall see.
 
Possible chance of tropical development now up to 60%. NHC pretty darn confident, for a system that is not even over water. Crazy, but they do a darn good job.
 
70% chance of development as of this morning, with more of a westerly movement in most of the models.
This pretty much puts the entire northern Gulf coast as a possible target.
Hopefully it will remain a weak disturbance and move along quickly no matter where it eventually tracks back onshore.
 
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As of 8am, EDT. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.....Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A landfall of whatever this becomes, anywhere from the upper Texas coast, all the way over to about Ft. Walton beach.

The overall trend and consensus is west, with many of the reliable models falling in line with one another. Strength; forecast appears to be a TS, but mostly a potential really wet soaking, possible flooding type of system as it will be a slow mover. Stay tuned.
 
As of 8am, EDT. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.....Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A landfall of whatever this becomes, anywhere from the upper Texas coast, all the way over to about Ft. Walton beach.

The overall trend and consensus is west, with many of the reliable models falling in line with one another. Strength; forecast appears to be a TS, but mostly a potential really wet soaking, possible flooding type of system as it will be a slow mover. Stay tuned.


Some euro ensembles have it traveling west to Texas/ LA . border . If those verify,that's a lot of time over very warm water
 
Even a tropical disturbance can be a big headache if it is a slow mover. Now that it appears the movement will be toward the west, I just hope it doesn't hug the coast for several days. We sure don't need any more flooding issues around here.
 
Even a tropical disturbance can be a big headache if it is a slow mover. Now that it appears the movement will be toward the west, I just hope it doesn't hug the coast for several days. We sure don't need any more flooding issues around here.


like faceman, i just hope is minimal, yet just enough to punch a hole in this high pressure system that is bringing us record heat index daily and some badly needed rain.
 
Official now. 92L invest.

About 24hrs. ahead of what was the anticipated invest. notice.
 
I like to check out the models here and there, and a few days ago I noticed something forming just off the coast. Crazy.
 
Official now. 92L invest.

About 24hrs. ahead of what was the anticipated invest. notice.
NHC showing a 10% chance of formation.

Interesting that the GFS doesn't really show much.. it may form, then Peter out.

The ECMWF shows something hitting the Texas Louisiana coast. Very early.
 
NHC showing a 10% chance of formation.

Interesting that the GFS doesn't really show much.. it may form, then Peter out.

The ECMWF shows something hitting the Texas Louisiana coast. Very early.

!0% chance in 24 hours. 80% chance in 120 hours.
 

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