***TROPICAL ALERT** Tropical Storm BARRY (previously 92L) (1 Viewer)

[Super44]

Now with an official invest, they will have a starting point. Models will be a changing (flip flopping) until there is a well defined LLC.

 

[XLR8]

How can they figure this out when the system has not even hit water yet?

 

[faceman]

Now with an official invest, they will have a starting point. Models will be a changing (flip flopping) until there is a well defined LLC.

We'll know more by tomorrow morning when it moves over water. Right now it's over land in the middle of Georgia. It's a rare
sight to see the NHC tag an invest while it's still on land.

 

[faceman]

How can they figure this out when the system has not even hit water yet?

The mets at the NHC are very good at their jobs.

The reason is it will be moving into an area with good conditions for development. We are currently under a dome of high pressure
which is allowing conditions in the upper atmosphere to be favorable. There is also no wind shear along the northern gulf and none
expected for the next few days

 

[Bill]

The mets at the NHC are very good at their jobs.

Yes... the science of modeling these systems have improved greatly over the last decade or so.
I can remember as a kid how crude the forecasts were and they rarely ended up very close to the original projections. We know that nothing is ever written in stone until a storm is finally done, but we certainly can put more trust in the tracks today than what we saw back then.

 

[faceman]

Yes... the science of modeling these systems have improved greatly over the last decade or so.
I can remember as a kid how crude the forecasts were and they rarely ended up very close to the original projections. We know that nothing is ever written in stone until a storm is finally done, but we certainly can put more trust in the tracks today than what we saw back then.

Yes, we've come a long way since the days of Nash Roberts and his magic marker.

 

[superchuck500]

How can they figure this out when the system has not even hit water yet?

Ball bearings

 

[Bleu Raeder]

Ball bearings

It's all ball bearings now.

 

[XLR8]

Yes, we've come a long way since the days of Nash Roberts and his magic marker.

I still prefer Nash’s marker.

 

[Bill]

I still prefer Nash’s marker.

In the day that was the best grease marker in town!

 

[Madmarsha]

It's all ball bearings now.

I thought it was plastics.

 

[buzd]

It's all ball bearings now.

And gauze pads.

 

[Super44]

How can they figure this out when the system has not even hit water yet?

There has been a lot of funding that has gone into hurricane forecasting, with the development of forecast models. The NHC pros are the best there is, when it comes down to tropical systems and projected path, which we expect. But forecasting the intensity is another level of science, yet to be fine tuned. All said, stay in touch with what the NHC provides and you will not go wrong. With this system, they have been forecasting the possibility, since the middle of last week. That is quite incredible, if you ask me.

 

[SharonT]

It is actually good some time when a small tropical storm will give us much needed rain plus cool the temperatures some.

It's been weeks since a 'good' rain. Even washing cars and leaving equipment out overnight didn't get results.

I stickied cajuncook's Hurricane Prep thread. It looks like the new nola.com owners changed the links or removed some content, so you might need to google.

 

[Dan in Lafayette]

It's been weeks since a 'good' rain. Even washing cars and leaving equipment out overnight didn't get results.

I stickied cajuncook's Hurricane Prep thread. It looks like the new nola.com owners changed the links or removed some content, so you might need to google.

Maybe we need a newer one since that one was started in 2007 without many updates.