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There is a zone of pretty heavy shear over the Central Caribbean but it could weaken right over Gonzalo to allow it to strengthen. If it can get through that as a strong storm or hurricane it could get quite concerning.
91L is likely going to struggle the whole way in but could produce some surge over the really low lying areas along the SW La and SE Tx Coasts.
TD #7 has been upgraded the Tropical Storm Gonzalo
Gonzalo forecast to become a hurricane and impact the Windward Islands.
Discussion:
Gonzalo has undergone intensification overnight with the formation of deep convection over the low level center and defined banding features especially in the western semi-circle. IR overpass indicated the partial formation of an eyewall feature to the south and southeast of the center. Given the current state of organization the system was upgraded to a tropical storm and current estimated intensity is set at a conservative 50mph. It is very possible Gonzalo is a stronger tropical storm than currently indicated. Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone with a tiny envelop of moisture.
Track:
Gonzalo is moving toward the west at 14mph and this motion is expected to continue as the tropical storm is embedded within the easterly steering flow on the south side of a mid and upper level ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic. This westward motion at 15-18mph will continue for the next 3 days bringing Gonzalo close/near the southern Windward Island early this weekend. After passing into the eastern Caribbean Sea, the storm is expected to increase in forward speed to between 18-25mph, which is fast for a tropical cyclone. Global and hurricane track guidance is in good agreement and this is a fairly high confidence forecast track through days 4-5.
Intensity:
Gonzalo has defined global guidance and has intensified overnight which certainly brings into question the global model runs that show the system weakening. Given the current structure and the overall favorable conditions for the next 24-48 hours Gonzalo is forecast to reach hurricane intensity. It should be noted that the hurricane models show a stronger system than currently being shown in the official forecast and the global models show a weaker system. With that said it is likely a hurricane will be approaching the Windward Island late this week. Once moving into the eastern Caribbean, an increase in forward speed will result in developing verticle wind shear over the cyclone and this may induce some weakening, but it is unclear how much the system may weaken as it moves across the Caribbean Sea. This intensity forecast is of low confidence and small systems such as Gonzalo can have rapid fluctuations in intensity.
I heard 91l mentioned in passing during JBE’s presser yesterday- if course I came here first and didn’t see anything so didn’t worry about it
Based on satellite and surface observations, a broad surface low pressure center has formed with the tropical wave moving into the central Gulf of Mexico. A USAF mission is currently departing to investigate this system to determine if a tropical depression has formed. NHC has increased the chance of formation to 80% and advised that watches and/or warnings could be issued for portions of the TX and LA coast tonight or on Thursday. Overall the organization of the system is increasing and it is likely that a tropical depression or storm will form in the next day or two as the system moves generally toward the WNW around 10mph.
He finally got his PhD too.His videos are always so intelligent. The vocabulary alone is impressive. “Blobular” “convectively anemic”
So here's my question... With the depression currently churning in the Gulf, wouldn't that decrease the water temperature, thus affecting the strength of Gonzalo if it make its way into the same area?
Maybe a bit, but the depression is weak, won't churn the water enough, and then you have like a week or so to warm back up.So here's my question... With the depression currently churning in the Gulf, wouldn't that decrease the water temperature, thus affecting the strength of Gonzalo if it make its way into the same area?