Tropical storm Cristobal (1 Viewer)

[Super44]

Makes sense because you know, it's 2020.

 

[Super44]

A CDO is now starting to build in pretty quickly. Developing systems in the BOC/SW GOM, have been known to rapidly intensify. I think this system when it is named (probably by this evening), winds will be as high as 45-50mph. It is pretty impressive looking, now that the visible up close satellite loops are becoming available this morning. Going to be an interesting day/days.

 

[efil4stnias]

There's a very good chance we'll see several, It's going to be a busy year.

yeah its shaping up to be active between the atmosphere, ssts and well, 2020 and all that.

Yesterday i was fielding calls from clients making sure their policy covered looting/rioting.

Today will be clients verifying coverage and deductibles once this storm gets a name.

crazy.

 

[efil4stnias]

And for those S. LA residents reading this....look over your policy now. Dont wait. Take 10 min of your day to call your Homeowner/auto/busienss insurance agent to just verify everything.

Dont wait til last minute. If you need to make changes, make em now. Once a storm is within 80/20 lat/long ( named) most companies restrict any endorsements ( policy changes ) or new biz.

 

[Super44]

Very impressive, for a TD! I think it is already a TS. But we need to wait until the hurricane hunters get out there and the data confirms, what we think we see. It is a pretty big system as well.

 

[Saint_Ward]

 

[Saint_Ward]

 

[Super44]

Should be 65mph., by Sunday at 6am, according to latest info from a local met. and per the latest forecast from the NHC. Moving generally north in the central GOM.

 

[superchuck500]

Well if I had to choose between a June vs an Aug or Sept storm, I'll take June.

I suspect it's going to be all of the above.

 

[Super44]

Brief summary from the latest advisory....

NHC still holding the system as a TD, as of the 11am EDT advisory, though the NHC hunters have found some winds at TS strength. The NHC is being conservative in their forecast. Still a lot of uncertainty with track.

Stay tuned as always and have your hurricane plans in place. You can buy a generator for approximately $800-$900 and keep it boxed up until you are sure you will need it at some point. If not, you should be able to return it with your receipt, without having opened the box and or having used it. It is a good enough generator to run your refrigerator and some lights, TV, internet....etc. It will not be enough, to keep your AC going. Just some thoughts.

 

[Super44]

NHC update to 11am EDT advisory...

Updated to TS Cristobal with 40 mph winds. Now moving SW (230 degrees), @ 3 MPH.

 

[Super44]

I suspect it's going to be all of the above.

Well if you follow some of the professionals that do this for their livelihood, that is a pretty good opinion. And I certainly do.

 

[Infoman]

 

[Super44]

Both the Euro and GFS, are now becoming more aligned, as of latest respective model runs. Both have a 987-996 millibar system (CAT 1 hurricane), just south of central, to SE coast of Louisiana, come Saturday. The GFS has a landfall around midnight Saturday, south of New Orleans, while the Euro has a landfall around Lafayette. The intensity is always a tricky thing, whereas when these two models begin to align, they are generally pretty much spot on +/- 25 miles, either way of landfall. We shall see, as it is still 5 days out. But confidence of the models is building.

If you project the path out from the 72 hour forecast point, that the NHC has shown in their latest track, you can pretty much see they are splitting the difference between the two models.

 

[bclemms]

Both the Euro and GFS, are now becoming more aligned, as of latest respective model runs. Both have a 987-996 millibar system (CAT 1 hurricane), just south of central, to SE coast of Louisiana, come Saturday. The GFS has a landfall around midnight Saturday, south of New Orleans, while the Euro has a landfall around Lafayette. The intensity is always a tricky thing, whereas when these two models begin to align, they are generally pretty much spot on +/- 25 miles, either way of landfall. We shall see, as it is still 5 days out. But confidence of the models is building.

I think we'll see it strengthen pretty quickly as it moves into the central Gulf but I'll be surprised if it can maintain intensity as it approaches the coast due to cooler waters. If GFS is right, it sure looks good for tornadoes in Nebraska on Saturday too. Decisions will have to be made.