**TROPICAL UPDATE** Hurricane Matthew (updated maps and storm information in original post) (1 Viewer)

bclemms

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Been trying to wait to start this thread for a few days since it is still very far out and very early. Typically I don't like to talk about storms this far out unless models are very consistent. NHC is putting development at 5 days at 70%.

Long range models, the GFS, CMC, Euro and CFS have all indicated tropical development in the Caribbean and leaning towards entering the gulf. The GFS is the only model that extends farther out than 240 hours. It has had a major hurricane in the Gulf every single run for days now.

Please keep in mind models are extremely unreliable this far out and odds of actually having a gulf storm this far out are still quite small. Actual landfall would be much smaller and strength is also unreliable at this point. There is just a very strong signal in place that should be monitored in the coming week.



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10/03 - Updated original post with more maps/links ~primadox


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IntenseSaint

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There are absolutely no invests or any kind of developments near these areas. I thought these models were base on some kind of system development(ie invest or tropical wave).

I'm curious, how often do these models show storms that never come to fruition. What is their success vs failure in terms of results?
 
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bclemms

bclemms

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There are absolutely no invests or any kind of developments near these areas. I thought these models were base on some kind of system development(ie invest or tropical wave).

I'm curious, how often do these models show storms that never come to fruition. What is their success vs failure in terms of results?

On an individual level, they all show generate false storms from time to time, some worse than others. Collectively, when all the long range models start consistently showing the same thing they can be somewhat reliable. I'd put the odds of having a storm in the Caribbean next week greater than 50% but wouldn't even guess beyond that. NHC has odds of at least a depression at 80% in the next 5 days but they do not forecast beyond that.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southernmost
Cabo Verde Islands is moving westward at around 20 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely
to form later this week. Interests in the Windward Islands, the
southern Caribbean Sea, and the northern coast of South America
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
When the wave gets better organized over the next few days they will classify it as an invest. Odds of this happening are almost certain.
 

Heathen Saint

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GFS just shifted it to skirting the coast near St Pete or making a S Fla hit

Still tons of time. I'll check back in a week.
 
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bclemms

bclemms

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So far I'll I've heard are cooler temps this week.
There will be cooler temps this week. I'm excited for that!

This thing is a ways off. National Hurricane Center now has tropical formation up to 90% in the next 5 days.

Good news is latest model runs are making a very unusual due North turn in the Caribbean and taking this up the East coast or out to sea but it's still too far out to be reliable on track at this point.

NHC said:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a large low
pressure area located about 1150 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands has increased and become a little better organized
since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this week while the low moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Windward
Islands, the southeastern and south-central Caribbean Sea, as well
as the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Stewart
Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
 

gboudx

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This is from Houston pro-met Jeff Lindner:

97L:
A broad area of low pressure 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better organized and there is a high potential (90%) that the system will develop into a tropical depression over the next 5 days as it moves generally westward toward the eastern Caribbean Sea. This system is currently located very low in latitude and conditions downstream over the Caribbean Sea are forecast to be favorable for development. One should remember at this time range to be cautious of model guidance as wild swings between runs and models are likely. At this point there looks to be the potential for a fairly significant tropical system in the Caribbean Sea late this week.
 
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bclemms

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Mods feel free to update thread title as needed now that they've classified it as invest.
 

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