**TROPICAL UPDATE** Hurricane Matthew (updated maps and storm information in original post) (1 Viewer)

:9: I'll get to that this afternoon!

And I looked at the model runs, too...that is a pretty sharp turn to the north they're indicating so far. Crazy.

Yeah, normally don't see a turn like that when a storm is this far south. That is a week out too and just yesterday morning the same model had it hitting gulf coast. The only thing I'd worry about at this point is Tropical system in Caribbean.
 
From Weather Underground today:
Ensemble models
at201697_ensmodel.gif


I've never seen a storm do that before.:scratch:

Computer models are what I'm accustomed to seeing:
at201697_model.gif
 
From Weather Underground today:
Ensemble models
at201697_ensmodel.gif


I've never seen a storm do that before.:scratch:

Computer models are what I'm accustomed to seeing:
at201697_model.gif

Worth noting the Euro is now hitting the east coast of south Florida with a bomb so model spread is still quite high.
 
Worth noting the Euro is now hitting the east coast of south Florida with a bomb so model spread is still quite high.

That ensemble map is the craziest thing I've ever seen.

And I noticed the same thing about the Euro. Wherever this thing ends up, it sure looks like it's going to be wound up pretty tight.

Also, the original post has been updated with the usual maps and links. I'll add more when they become available as the storm develops.
 
Thoughts from Jeff Lindner:

While fall has moved across TX the last few days…it is still hurricane season.

Discussion:
A large and well defined tropical wave just east of the Windward Islands this morning is moving westward at 15-20mph. USAF mission yesterday afternoon was not able to find a closed low pressure center and a new mission is in progress at this time to determine is the strong wave axis has closed off a surface center. Satellite images show decent to well defined banding features across the northern part of the wave axis with deep convection this morning near a possible center. Upper level conditions are currently favorable for development, but wind shear does greatly increase across the Caribbean Sea just west of the wave. This wave will bring near tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall to the Windward Islands later today.

Track:
Global and hurricane model guidance is in good agreement on the track of this feature through the next 72-96 hours, before wide spread develops toward the day 5 and beyond period. The wave is south of a strong sub-tropical ridge of high pressure which will continue to force the feature toward the west and the guidance and ensemble clustering through 72 hours is very high and the confidence is high.

After 72 hours model guidance begins to greatly diverge on how to handle a break in the sub-tropical ridge near the US east coast and a trough of low pressure over the Ohio Valley. Some of the guidance including the GFS and most of its ensembles turn the system due north out of the southern Caribbean Sea and then across the Bahamas and near/along the US east coast. Another clustering takes the system more NW toward central Cuba and then around FL while a third clustering takes the system more WNW and NW toward the NW Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

The final track outcome will be determined on how the system interacts with the trough over the western Atlantic and if this trough is able to capture the system fully or if blocking high pressure develops over the NE US trapping the system in the northern Caribbean Sea or near the Bahamas/FL up to the NC coast. At this point it is too early to determine the level of rightward turn beyond day 3.

I strongly caution using individual model runs to assume any track potential beyond about day 3.

Intensity:
While the system is close to being a tropical storm and model guidance support for development is high….it should be noted that much of the intensity guidance has thus far been too aggressive in developing this system. Conditions across the Caribbean Sea moving forward appear to be favorable for development and most of the model guidance make this feature a hurricane and some a significant and large hurricane in the central Caribbean Sea this weekend.
 
I got a little sneak peak at the High res GFS from a friend of mine that works at the NWS. It has a Sandy size Major hurricane hitting NC.

The 00z Euro is a bit slower and takes a similar north turn in the Caribbean as the GFS and CMC but then a ridge builds back in to the north and when the storm gets north of Cuba it turns back West. Right now I prefer the CMC model, feel it's quietly handled the tropics really well this season.
 
Tweet from a specialist at NHC.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/97L?src=hash">#97L</a> circulation getting better defined in the Windward Islands- recon in there now to see whether it is well-defined enof to b a Trop Storm <a href="https://t.co/kKF5qoU6oe">pic.twitter.com/kKF5qoU6oe</a></p>&mdash; Eric Blake (@EricBlake12) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/781107767977381889">September 28, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Don't think we'll see a depression on this one. It's likely to go straight to tropical storm Matthew.
 
Mathew may be a short lived tropical storm, starting at 60mph so we could see a hurricane as early as late tonight.

You think it will add that much that quickly? Could get quite intense if it says over water down there
 
You think it will add that much that quickly? Could get quite intense if it says over water down there

Official NHC forecast is for it to become a cane by 8am Friday but it could strengthen faster and its only 15mph from a cane now. I dont think it will, Im thinking tomorrow night but we'll see.
 

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