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https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/invest97l-tropical-atlantic-wave-lesser-antilles-caribbean
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Mods feel free to update thread title as needed now that they've classified it as invest.
Mods feel free to update thread title as needed now that they've classified it as invest.
I'll get to that this afternoon!
And I looked at the model runs, too...that is a pretty sharp turn to the north they're indicating so far. Crazy.
From Weather Underground today:
Ensemble models
I've never seen a storm do that before.
Computer models are what I'm accustomed to seeing:
Worth noting the Euro is now hitting the east coast of south Florida with a bomb so model spread is still quite high.
While fall has moved across TX the last few days…it is still hurricane season.
Discussion:
A large and well defined tropical wave just east of the Windward Islands this morning is moving westward at 15-20mph. USAF mission yesterday afternoon was not able to find a closed low pressure center and a new mission is in progress at this time to determine is the strong wave axis has closed off a surface center. Satellite images show decent to well defined banding features across the northern part of the wave axis with deep convection this morning near a possible center. Upper level conditions are currently favorable for development, but wind shear does greatly increase across the Caribbean Sea just west of the wave. This wave will bring near tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall to the Windward Islands later today.
Track:
Global and hurricane model guidance is in good agreement on the track of this feature through the next 72-96 hours, before wide spread develops toward the day 5 and beyond period. The wave is south of a strong sub-tropical ridge of high pressure which will continue to force the feature toward the west and the guidance and ensemble clustering through 72 hours is very high and the confidence is high.
After 72 hours model guidance begins to greatly diverge on how to handle a break in the sub-tropical ridge near the US east coast and a trough of low pressure over the Ohio Valley. Some of the guidance including the GFS and most of its ensembles turn the system due north out of the southern Caribbean Sea and then across the Bahamas and near/along the US east coast. Another clustering takes the system more NW toward central Cuba and then around FL while a third clustering takes the system more WNW and NW toward the NW Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
The final track outcome will be determined on how the system interacts with the trough over the western Atlantic and if this trough is able to capture the system fully or if blocking high pressure develops over the NE US trapping the system in the northern Caribbean Sea or near the Bahamas/FL up to the NC coast. At this point it is too early to determine the level of rightward turn beyond day 3.
I strongly caution using individual model runs to assume any track potential beyond about day 3.
Intensity:
While the system is close to being a tropical storm and model guidance support for development is high….it should be noted that much of the intensity guidance has thus far been too aggressive in developing this system. Conditions across the Caribbean Sea moving forward appear to be favorable for development and most of the model guidance make this feature a hurricane and some a significant and large hurricane in the central Caribbean Sea this weekend.
We now have Tropical Storm Matthew. Original post has new links and maps added.
Mathew may be a short lived tropical storm, starting at 60mph so we could see a hurricane as early as late tonight.
You think it will add that much that quickly? Could get quite intense if it says over water down there