UFC 104 Machida vs Rua Sat Night (1 Viewer)

peglegpeet13

23-3 What a Night!!!
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The UFC returns this weekend with a card headlined by UFC Light-Heavyweight Lyoto Machida defending his title against the always dangerous Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. As usual, here is the card with my predictions.

Stefan Struve vs. Chase Gormley
I like the debuting Gormley

Razak Al-Hassan vs. Kyle Kingsbury
Al-Hassan returns from his pretty nasty armbar injury in his last fight in the UFC. Here, he takes on Coach Sean Payton's evil twin. I like Kingsbury in this fight and not just because he looks like Payton.

Rob Kimmons vs. Jorge Rivera
Kimmons

Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen
Once again, the man that many feel should have gotten a title shot long ago against Anderson Silva is relegated to the prelims. Okami doesn't have the awe-inspiring crowd pleasing offensive attack that many like to see. He is a very sound and good fighter which sadly keeps him on the undercards. I like his chances here against Sonnen. I think Okami wins yet again.

Antoni Hardonk vs. Patrick Barry
Two very good kickboxers with brutal legkicks collide in this fight. Hardonk will have the size advantage here, but I like Barry to win this fight. I think his speed will be too much for Hardonk who doesn't have the ground skills to do much of anything if the fight gets dicey on the feet. I will take New Orleans native Pat Barry in this fight and pray that he does the Techno Viking on his way to the ring.

Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer
Interesting fight. Bader looked less than spectacular in his last fight inside the octagon. Granted, he did injure his knee in that fight. He is taking on a fighter with very good jj skills in Schafer. I think Bader tries to do what he does best and sticks to his wrestling. His sub-defense will be tested. I think though, that Bader will be able to control Schafer long enough to get a dec win.

Spencer Fisher vs. Joe Stevenson
Interesting fight. I don't think I have ever seen a boring SPencer Fisher fight. I think his hopes in this fight depends on if Stevenson remembers that he can use good wrestling to keep Fisher off the feet. Stevenson has shown that he likes to stand and bang, which could get him in trouble in this fight. I think he should fight a smart fight and keep Fisher down on the mat. If he does that and doesn't want to get his face punched many many times, he will win a dec. Stevenson via Dec.

Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
I like Johnson in this fight. His reach and power should be enough to keep Yoshida from using his judo in this fight. I like Johnson via ko.

Josh Neer vs. Gleison Tibau
I like Neer in this fight. I have a hunch that he is going to be too much for Tibau. I think Tibau works from the top early and often but I just think that Neer will catch him with something in round two. Neer via tko.

Ben Rothwell vs. Cain Velasquez
Interesting fight. I haven't picked Rothwell to win a fight since I saw the video of him fighting a very fat kid that believed he could win an MMA fight with WWE moves. Granted, he was a very young fighter at the time and was trying to make money and the fat kid pretty much asked for it. The video is pretty easy to find on Youtube and one last thing, Jeremy Horn was the ref of the fight.

Back on subject, I like Velasquez in this fight. I think he should fight smart and use his wrestling to wear down Big Ben. Velasquez is the better wrestler and I expect him to be able to use that wrestling in this fight to take a Unanimous dec victory.

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua
I am pumped for this fight. Rua finally gets the title figth that I thought he would get when he first came into the UFC. Injuries and time off were rough to him. Now, he gets to take on a man that is very hard to figure out.

Machida has been almost untouchable in all his fights. The most danger I remember him in was a triangle against Tito Ortiz. His standup style has been very hard for all his opponents. The man is so good at what he does it is like watching an artist paint a masterpiece (still can't believe I used that line) But it is true, he is a master of his style of fighting and every opponent he has faced has been unable to figure it out.

Here, he faces a very dangerous opponent. At one time, Rua was considered the best Light-Heavy in the world. He had dangerous striking and an almost deadlier ground game. I think because of his all out style, people forget that Rua is very dangerous on the ground.

We have a fight that is very intriguing. Will Rua display his typical aggressive fight style? Will he fight a more conservative fight and try to get Machida down? Will he be able to Solve Machida's striking and karate?

I think that Machida is at the top of his game right now. His style is amazing and he is so good at imposing it on everyone he has faced. As much as I like Rua, who is without a doubt one of my favorite fighters, I think Machida will be too much for him. I think this fight goes into at least the fourth round. I think Machida will wear Rua down and get a stoppage victory in the late fourth early fifth round.

Well, there it is. Let's hear yours.



On a side note, my wife and I found out that we will be having a girl. Our first child is due in early March. I won't have a fighter, just yet.
 
Yo Peet! Congrats on the girl. How about Miesha? Actually, I sat down with Miesha Tate on Saturday. She was in town for a submission wrestling seminar. I have never struggled so hard to keep eye contact in my life. She had just finish with a photo shoot and was all dolled up. Short dress, plunging neckline… I knew if she caught me taking a peek she’s TKO me.

Stefan Struve vs. Chase Gormley
Struve is tall. Watched Star Wars in Concert last night. It exceeded my expectations.

Razak Al-Hassan vs. Kyle Kingsbury
Al-Hassan by dec. I took a beating on the SSF for my “no cheese” thread. I thought it was funny. Some people take things so serious. Trust me, no one is eating more cheese than me. I’ve had extended conversations with my dad and cousin about the Saints this year that were non-existent in the past. Love our boys. Really enjoying the effort Sed Ellis is giving. Watching Thomas and Bell run between the tackles brings a tear to my eye. I’m going to run down Meachem (Tulsa boy) in the offseason and ask him what it’s like to be a SB champ :17:

Rob Kimmons vs. Jorge Rivera
Rivera by clinch and knees against the cage. I’m thinking about writing a column “Dating Game” style. Instead of bachelors I’ll have fighters. Instead of winning over someone’s heart, they’ll give answers to win over perspective sponsors. Pretty original I thought.

Yushin Okami (-240) vs. Chael Sonnen (+190)
Okami by decision. A tough fought battle but a win nonetheless. I think Okami would be on the main card if he had a killer nickname. Yushin Kamakazi Okami :shrug:

Antoni Hardonk (-130) vs. Patrick Barry (Even)
This will be featured live on Spike. Barry said when he gets on the main card he’ll bust out the Techo Viking. Does the live Spike broadcast count?

Ryan Bader (-450) vs. Eric Schafer (+330)
Every time I count Schafer out, he pulls off a nice win. Bader trains with CB Dollaway. CB is terrible and overrated. If I were in Vegas I’d put a few on Schafer. Red by Sub.

Spencer Fisher (+190) vs. Joe Stevenson (-240)
I just love watching Fisher fight. I hope he wears Joe out of their feet. Do you know what bugs me about Joe Daddy? Seriously, do you know because I’m not sure… but he does.

Anthony Johnson (-320) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+260)
If Kos can catch Yoshida with a vicious KO, what happens when Johnson connects? I like both fighters but Rumble by TKO. Can you believe the UFC is heading to Austrailia now? Wandy v Sexyama :9: I think the Aussies need to start preparing for a Japanese invasion.

Josh Neer vs. Gleison Tibau
Neer is exciting but Tibau may just lay on him the entire fight. Tibau by dec. How is this on the main card? I see at least 3 other fights I’d consider more :worthy:

Ben Rothwell (+240) vs. Cain Velasquez (-290)
Heavyweights collide! Cain via GnP dec. Did you see how Kimbo’s posse and family were allowed to watch his TUF fight live in the arena? They’ve calmed down the Kimboness on TUF and I think it makes the show flow better. Still can’t believe how awful Big Wes looked. Maybe Wren is a beast. Who is your favorite so far? I’m still thinking Nelson makes the finals but I’d like to see Junk fight before I pick a second fighter for the finals.

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Lyoto Machida (-450) vs. Mauricio Rua (+330)
Peet, nice breakdown. I’ll keep this one short and sweet. Machida by KO in 2nd.
Which UFC title holder is most likely to lose their belt next. I’d say BJ Penn right now because I think Diego Sanchez is going to push BJ’s cardio to the max. Otherwise, I don’t see Silva, Machida, GSP or Lesnar losing for quite some time.
 
What are they counting in the odds for these fights (i.e. -330, +75)?
 
Stun, does Miesha know about this gif of her??

MeishaTatesLovelyLadyLumps.gif
 
Stefan Struve vs. Chase Gormley
Struve

Razak Al-Hassan vs. Kyle Kingsbury
Al-Hassan by being dumb enough to not tap to something, then getting out and catching Kingsubury.

Rob Kimmons vs. Jorge Rivera
Rivera

Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen
Okami. He's a more sound fighter and should easily outclass Sonnen in all aspects of the fight.

Antoni Hardonk vs. Patrick Barry
As much as logic tells me Hardonk should have every advantage, I can't pick against Barry and his destructive leg kicks and good (for a heavyweight) speed, even if he's giving up 7 inches of height.

Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer
Bader. I think he can go a long way in the UFC.

Spencer Fisher vs. Joe Stevenson
Joe Daddy! His submission game is two notches above Fisher's, and I think after his win over Diaz he realizes his strengths are on the ground and will use them to his advantage.

Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
Johnson.

Josh Neer vs. Gleison Tibau
Neer had nothing for Pellegrino. I like Tibau via decision.

Ben Rothwell vs. Cain Velasquez
Cain via grind it out wrestling and GNP.

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua
Machida. Yes, I have a man-crush on Lyoto, but that's not why I'm picking him. Rua's aggresssive, in your face, commit everything style plays right into Lyoto's elusive counter attack, and will eventually lead to Shogun making a HUGE mistake and getting torn up. Lyoto by TKO in the second.

peglegpeet13 said:
On a side note, my wife and I found out that we will be having a girl. Our first child is due in early March. I won't have a fighter, just yet.

Congrats! I saw a chick Saturday at Gladiators Mandeville mixing it up with the guys and holding her own. And let's not forget Gina Carano. And I'm e-friends with Hillary Williams who just took third in her weight class at ADCC.

Girls can fight, and fight well.

- Russ, father of an 18 month old daughter. :D
 
What are they counting in the odds for these fights (i.e. -330, +75)?

betting lines =

-330 means they are favored. You must bet $330 to win $100

+230 means they are the dog. You'd bet $100 to win $230

---

Peet, thanks for the .gif first I've seen it. I must admit, even sitting here at my desk I can't stop looking at it and feel like she'll walk around the corner and punch me in the eye at any moment. Oh and yes, I did ask her about sexism and all those questions. I dont' get women's MMA. They say to take them serious in the fight game but she was wearing a revealing dress doing photos for a calendar... Carano poses in Maxim and says she is uncomfortable... then poses for ESPN topless... Cyborg looks like the gate keeper of hell... Just throwing that one out there.

---

PS - my daughter can beat up your daughter Russ. Of course she is five years old and the proud owner of an orange belt in Karate :mwink:
 
Peet, thanks for the .gif first I've seen it. I must admit, even sitting here at my desk I can't stop looking at it and feel like she'll walk around the corner and punch me in the eye at any moment. Oh and yes, I did ask her about sexism and all those questions. I dont' get women's MMA. They say to take them serious in the fight game but she was wearing a revealing dress doing photos for a calendar... Carano poses in Maxim and says she is uncomfortable... then poses for ESPN topless... Cyborg looks like the gate keeper of hell... Just throwing that one out there.

---

PS - my daughter can beat up your daughter Russ. Of course she is five years old and the proud owner of an orange belt in Karate :mwink:

I don't see any difference between that, and GSP/Nate Marquardt appearing on and in Fight! magazine oiled up, shirtless, and flexing. Or Zuffa's promotional stuff showing Lyoto in just a pair of shorts doing some Karate Kid style kata with the sunset off in the distance. I'd just prefer to look at Gina over Georges.

And Stun, I hope your daughter has good takedown defense. Mine has the prettiest side-control to knee on belly to mount transition you'll ever see from a toddler. :p
 
On the mat the first time at 12 weeks, and already working for a collar choke from sidecontrol:

674adf5a6ff313d.jpg


:D

(Yes, that's me.)
 
Stefan Struve vs. Chase Gormley
Saskatoon, where I live, has a "news-talk-radio" station that has a daily "call-in and talk politics" radio show. I imagine you folks are very familiar with this concept, because if there is one thing I know about Americans (there are actually six) it is that Americans love to express their political views to fellow Americans via the medium of call-in radio shows. Where am I going with all this you might be asking? Well, Saskatoon's call-in show is hosted by a man named John Gormley. I don't like John Gormley at all, not for his politics, which I probably agree with more often than not, but because he talks like he has marbles in his mouth. Very jowlly. And I'm holding that against Chase.
Struve via Skyscraper Suplex (a sweet WWF-style finishing move that I can only assume he has in his repertoire).

Razak Al-Hassan vs. Kyle Kingsbury
I hope Kyle's middle name isn't Kevin.
Al-Hassan via backlash against racism.

Rob Kimmons vs. Jorge Rivera
Have you guys ever heard of a band called The Gourds? They are an alt-country group from somewhere in the Southern US. They did that country-cover of "Gin and Juice" that you've probably heard, although they don't usually get the credit for it. Anyways, the Gourds have this sweet song called "My Name is Jorge" that I always think of whenever I hear the name Jorge. Full disclosure, living in Western Canada, I rarely hear the name Jorge. I imagine I will hear the name Jorge on Saturday though, specifically a sentence starting with "Jorge", and ending with "Rivera, winner by TKO".
Rivera via TKO (announced by Bruce Buffer).

Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen
I think I'm going to leave work when I'm done this post. Obviously I've ceased to be productive, as I'm making UFC picks (which believe it or not, isn't one of the specific tasks that I'm paid to do). You might be able to tell that I have nothing remotely interesting to say about this fight. It looks like Stun has picked up my habit of "random comments in lieu of actual fight analysis" when there is very little to actually say about a fight. Frankly, I couldn't be more proud.
Okami via decision (boring).

Antoni Hardonk vs. Patrick Barry
Antoni Hardonk always reminds me of Ivan Drago. I just went and google-imaged-searched Hardonk and Drago, and they don't actually look that similar. And Hardonk isn't even Russian, he's Dutch. Still, in my head, Hardonk is the real-life version of Drago. I can't pick against that guy. Dude's a monster.
Drago via breaking Barry, and if he dies, he dies.

Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer
After being initially very excited about this season of TUF, I feel I'm losing interest a bit. Are any of those guys really good enough to make noise in the UFC? I have my doubts. Sure, Roy Nelson could beat a few UFC heavyweights, but just a few, and at his age and experience level, he isn't going to get any better. Justin Wren looked like a bit of a beast, I suppose, but he looked even more like my buddy Jimmy. My buddy Jimmy is not what I would consider an athletic specimen. Anyways, what I'm getting at here is that you're a sucker if you pick Schafer in this fight, because he's got red hair.
Bader via force choke.

Spencer Fisher vs. Joe Stevenson
Okay, I lied to you about three predictions ago. I ended up going home after making my Bader-Schafer prediction. So now it's Thursday morning instead of Wednesday afternoon, and I've had a whole additional night to contemplate the outcomes of these last five fights. Incidentally, these last five fights are the fights that count in our little picks contests. Ooooh. Added pressure. Speaking of "pressure", topical question - which is a better song, "Under Pressure" by Queen and David Bowie, or "Pressure Point" by The Zutons? I prefer the Zutons song, personally. Dude flips right out at the end.
Stevenson via guillotine choke (applying PRESSUE to the opponent's neck, cutting off the flow of blood to the brain, causing a black out. Still topical).

Anthony Johnsonvs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
I just went to wikipedia Yoshida, to see who all he had fought in the UFC. Looking at his list of fights, I didn't see his fight against Matt Brown, which is the Yoshida fight that in my head I can remember most clearly. Confused, I went to Matt Brown's wikipedia page - only to find out that Matt Brown has never fought Yoshida. Matt Brown fought Dong-Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim though, which is the fight I was thinking of. I'm so rattled right now. I fully admit that I thought Dong-Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim and Yoshiyuki Yoshida were the same person. They both are judo guys. They both fight at 170. They both came into the UFC at roughly the same time. And uh... they both are Asian. Please don't think I'm a racist because of this whole ordeal.
Anthony Johnson via at least I can keep him and Jon Jones separate.

Josh Neervs. Gleison Tibau
Ugh. Just got a call - I suddenly have a very busy plate at work today. Apologies, I have to make these last three picks quick-style.
Neer via TKO.

Ben Rothwell vs. Cain Velasquez
Brown pride! Not an issue to me. Ground, pound, repeat et. al.
Valasquez via decision (boring).

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua
I couldn't be happier that Machida actually goes for finishes now.
Machida via KO (complete with harnessed chi).
 
Unfortunately I don't have time to make picks for this event, but I am really looking forward to it, and to reading the comments on this thread (EE is where I get all my MMA news and commentary, Thanks guys).

I'm looking forward to seeing Machida in action again. In my opinion this fight goes down kind of similar to the Thiago fight. Aggression meets perfection. I do like Rua and think he's a great fighter but I don't see him competing with Machida in this one.
 
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