Ukraine (14 Viewers)

boutte

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Is Ukraine making a mistake by committing so many forces to the Southern front while Russia seems to be doubling down in Donetsk? Bakhmut (sp?) has been holding strong but Russia is making small but steady gains and looks to be trying encircle the city. They're sending a lot of their veteran troops to the area along with lots of cannon fodder. I know those mobilized troops are ineffective for the most part but you still have to spend time and resources to kill them when you need to be killing the real soldiers.

If you don't value human life cannon fodder is a good idea. Sadly Russia has a huge pool of men to sacrifice and doesn't seem to have any problem doing it.
 

Crzycjunx76

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Ukraine is not a democracy. People keep thinking it is.
Well they are a democratically elected representative republic, with universal sufferage. Their last elections were heavily monitored.
A total of 2,369 international observers from 17 countries and 19 organizations were officially registered to monitor the elections. A record number of 139 non-governmental Ukrainian organizations were registered as observers.

This is because Russia has historically interfered heavily in Ukranian elections to the end of establishing puppet governments there. Something they were successful at until the recent "Revolution of Dignity" saw civilians rise up and remove Yanukovych.


As for government structure, of a federal level they have:

Executive:
-A democratically elected President
-A Prime Minister nominated by the president and confirmed by parliment
-Cabinet members nominated by the president and confirmed by parliment

Legislative:
- A Democratically elected single "body" Parliament

Judicial:
-A Constitutional Court that operates much like the supreme court
-Appeals courts, etc.
 

DaveXA

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Well they are a democratically elected representative republic, with universal sufferage. Their last elections were heavily monitored.


This is because Russia has historically interfered heavily in Ukranian elections to the end of establishing puppet governments there. Something they were successful at until the recent "Revolution of Dignity" saw civilians rise up and remove Yanukovych.


As for government structure, of a federal level they have:

Executive:
-A democratically elected President
-A Prime Minister nominated by the president and confirmed by parliment
-Cabinet members nominated by the president and confirmed by parliment

Legislative:
- A Democratically elected single "body" Parliament

Judicial:
-A Constitutional Court that operates much like the supreme court
-Appeals courts, etc.
Indeed. Good post.
 

BooBirdSaint

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Is Ukraine making a mistake by committing so many forces to the Southern front while Russia seems to be doubling down in Donetsk? Bakhmut (sp?) has been holding strong but Russia is making small but steady gains and looks to be trying encircle the city. They're sending a lot of their veteran troops to the area along with lots of cannon fodder. I know those mobilized troops are ineffective for the most part but you still have to spend time and resources to kill them when you need to be killing the real soldiers.

If you don't value human life cannon fodder is a good idea. Sadly Russia has a huge pool of men to sacrifice and doesn't seem to have any problem doing it.
Two things I think.
One the Southern front offensive made great sense because there was a huge propaganda prize at the end, Kherson. Secondly, The Southern front is shorter in length & width with a great natural defensive river, the Dnipro River which had limited bridges and restricted Russian resupply efforts. The Russians realized that they couldn't defend Kherson with the river at their back and no bridges. But Ukraine can defend Kherson with the river as natural defensive line.

The Southern part of the country hasn't been under as much influence as the Eastern part (Donbas). Since 2014 Russian forces have controlled much of this Eastern territory. The East also has a huge natural border with Russia thus making resupply easier. The South is very much more favorable for attack since the front is smaller and the Russians have to bring enforcements either from all the way around and up the single bridge at the Kerch strait or across the narrow Mariupol - Melitopol line which has few East West roads and rail lines linking these areas.

Holding the East has been trading space for time. I wouldn't be surprised if the next Ukranian strike is a strike to retake Mariupol/Melitopol. I think they save taking the Donbas for last.
 

Sailorsaint

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Two things I think.
One the Southern front offensive made great sense because there was a huge propaganda prize at the end, Kherson. Secondly, The Southern front is shorter in length & width with a great natural defensive river, the Dnipro River which had limited bridges and restricted Russian resupply efforts. The Russians realized that they couldn't defend Kherson with the river at their back and no bridges. But Ukraine can defend Kherson with the river as natural defensive line.

The Southern part of the country hasn't been under as much influence as the Eastern part (Donbas). Since 2014 Russian forces have controlled much of this Eastern territory. The East also has a huge natural border with Russia thus making resupply easier. The South is very much more favorable for attack since the front is smaller and the Russians have to bring enforcements either from all the way around and up the single bridge at the Kerch strait or across the narrow Mariupol - Melitopol line which has few East West roads and rail lines linking these areas.

Holding the East has been trading space for time. I wouldn't be surprised if the next Ukranian strike is a strike to retake Mariupol/Melitopol. I think they save taking the Donbas for last.
I think it's as simple as Ukraine making a push at Zaporhizia and heading to Mariupol. This will cut the russians in half and cut off Crimea at the same time. The russians want Crimea more than they do Bahkmut. So, they will have to shift their forces from the north to go on the offensive in that direction. When they do, Ukraine will concentrate on taking the Donbas first because Crimea isn't going anywhere and will be cut off from supplies. The winter offensive, IMO, will be in the north and with the arrival of spring, they will move south towards Crimea. One of the main reasons I'm thinking this is that russia is trying to disable the ZNPP. Ukraine will want to liberate that area as soon as they can. When they do, they will continue to Mariupol.
 

boutte

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I think it's as simple as Ukraine making a push at Zaporhizia and heading to Mariupol. This will cut the russians in half and cut off Crimea at the same time. The russians want Crimea more than they do Bahkmut. So, they will have to shift their forces from the north to go on the offensive in that direction. When they do, Ukraine will concentrate on taking the Donbas first because Crimea isn't going anywhere and will be cut off from supplies. The winter offensive, IMO, will be in the north and with the arrival of spring, they will move south towards Crimea. One of the main reasons I'm thinking this is that russia is trying to disable the ZNPP. Ukraine will want to liberate that area as soon as they can. When they do, they will continue to Mariupol.
But while they're doing that could Ukraine lose the Donbas or be pushed out of Bahkmut forcing Ukraine to have disengage and relocate troops. If Russia starts pouring forces into the area could they regain the initiative?
I don't have any military experience so I don't know. I'm good at worrying though.
 

Sailorsaint

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But while they're doing that could Ukraine lose the Donbas or be pushed out of Bahkmut forcing Ukraine to have disengage and relocate troops. If Russia starts pouring forces into the area could they regain the initiative?
I don't have any military experience so I don't know. I'm good at worrying though.
I’m definitely not a strategist and everything is just my opinion but it seems UKR is holding their own in the Bahkmut area without serious reinforcements. If they can make a significant push towards Mariupol, russia will have to respond.
 

CajunInVA

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I’m definitely not a strategist and everything is just my opinion but it seems UKR is holding their own in the Bahkmut area without serious reinforcements. If they can make a significant push towards Mariupol, russia will have to respond.
I would think the NATO "eyes in the skies" will keep Ukraine informed of Russian concentration of forces. I can't image they will happen quickly. And, Ukraine will be able to act accordingly. In the meantime, they can continue to work their plan.
 

Sailorsaint

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Third and fourth party marketing is the reason it is taking so long for sanctions to take effect. I guess there is no real way of completely shutting off russia from the rest of the world, all you can do is slow it down enough for it to eventually take effect.
 

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