Ukraine (20 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

I've been seeing and ignoring most of what I've recently read about the Kinburn Spit.

People are looking at maps and not paying attention to the soil. Here are the issues. Nothing can be hidden on the Kinburn Spit. If one digs a hole more than six inches deep it will fill with water.

It can be used as a place to land troop, but those troops will be in harms way for as long as they are passing though.

It looks like a place that ought to have military importance, but the soil, the loose sand with a water table six inches down, dictates that it is a trap.

There might be situations where it could be useful but I don't see it happening now. When they push the Russians out of artillery range of it then maybe they can occipy and use it as a landing place and a road. .

 

[BigFrosty]

Whoever these guys are, they have good gear.

 

[SamAndreas]

Last night was hard on Raccoons around here. I saw three of them dead on the roads when I got out and about this morning.

Full moon causes that. Last night was close to being full.

 

[0rion]

Last night was hard on Raccoons around here. I saw three of them dead on the roads when I got out and about this morning.

Full moon causes that. Last night was close to being full.

We're 2 days from the last quarter....full moon was the 8th. I don't always keep up with the phases but during bow season I know them haha

 

[SamAndreas]

Here's today's ISW report:

Institute for the Study of War

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) escalated claims of Russian territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast on November 13 and 14, likely to emphasize that Russian forces are intensifying operations in Donetsk Oblast following withdrawal from the right bank of

www.understandingwar.org

Russians made claims about taking ground in Donetsk which ISW has found to be dubious.

"The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) escalated claims of Russian territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast on November 13 and 14, likely to emphasize that Russian forces are intensifying operations in Donetsk Oblast following withdrawal from the right bank of Kherson Oblast. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces completed the capture of Mayorsk (20km south of Bakhmut) on November 13 and of Pavlivka (45km southwest of Donetsk City) on November 14 after several weeks of not making claims of Russian territorial gains.[1] As ISW assessed on November 13, Russian forces will likely recommit troops to Donetsk Oblast after leaving the right bank of Kherson Oblast, which will likely lead to an intensification of operations around Bakhmut, Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast.[2] Russian forces will likely make gains in these areas in the coming days and weeks, but these gains are unlikely to be operationally significant. The Russian MoD is likely making more concrete territorial claims in order to set information conditions to frame Russian successes in Donetsk Oblast and detract from discontent regarding losses in Kherson Oblast."

"Russian milbloggers seized on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s November 14 visit to Kherson City to criticize Russian military capacity more substantively than in previous days during the Russian withdrawal from the right bank of Kherson Oblast. Russian milbloggers largely complained that Zelensky arrived in Kherson City and was able to move around with relatively little concern about Russian strikes in his vicinity and questioned why Russian forces did not launch strikes on Zelensky.[3] One prominent milblogger noted that this shows that Russia does not want to win the war and criticized Russian forces for allowing Zelensky to step foot on “Russian territory.”[4] Russian milbloggers have notably maintained a relatively muted response to the Russian loss of the right bank in the past days, as ISW has previously reported.[5] The clear shift in rhetoric from relatively exculpatory language generally backing the withdrawal as a militarily sound decision to ire directed at Russian military failures suggests that Russian military leadership will likely be pressured to secure more direct gains in Donetsk Oblast and other areas."

"Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin continues to establish himself as a highly independent, Stalinist warlord in Russia, becoming a prominent figure within the nationalist pro-war community. Prigozhin commented on a Russian execution video of a reportedly exchanged Wagner prisoner of war, Yevgeniy Nuzhin, sarcastically supporting Nuzhin’s execution and denouncing him as a traitor to the Russian people.[6] Most sources noted that Wagner executed Nuzhin following a prisoner exchange on November 10, but a few claimed that Wagner kidnapped the serviceman via Prigozhin’s connections to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and the Russian General Staff.[7] Prigozhin claimed that Nuzhin planned his escape to free Ukraine and used the opportunity to compare Nuzhin to Russian elites who disregard the interests of the Russian people and fly away from Russia‘s problems in their personal business jets.[8] The Russian nationalist community overwhelmingly welcomed the public punishment of the supposed deserter, noting that the Wagner command is undertaking appropriate military measures to discipline its forces.[9] Some milbloggers even compared the execution to Joseph Stalin’s “heroic” execution of Russian Marxist revolutionary Leon Trotsky who had also fled Bolshevik Russia, further confirming Prigozhin’s appeal among the proponents of Stalin’s repressive legacy.[10] Prigozhin is taking actions that will resonate with a constituency interested in the ideology of Russia’s national superiority, Soviet brutalist strength, and distasteful of the Kremlin’s corruption, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has used as a political force throughout his reign."

 

[BigFrosty]

They're turning him to the dark side.

 

[0rion]

They're turning him to the dark side.

Maybe they'll get Baylisascaris from it.

 

[BigFrosty]

Tractor Brigade still putting in work.

 

[SamAndreas]

We're 2 days from the last quarter....full moon was the 8th. I don't always keep up with the phases but during bow season I know them haha

I live in California. That shifts it a bit when the moon is full from where you are. Here the full moon was full mid last week, But last night it was still quite bright insofar as being hard on critters like Raccoons. The road kill is most when the moon is brightest just before sun up when lots of workers are on the roads going to work. That's how it was last night.

Today in the afternoon I had about 15 deer hanging out in my yard. About half of them were large bucks. That is not unusual here at all. They were there in such numbers because I don't ever shoot at them, and I don't allow anyone else to shoot at them either.

HAHA

 

[HoustonSaint68]

Today in the afternoon I had about 15 deer hanging out in my yard. About half of them were large bucks. That is not unusual here at all. They were there in such numbers because I don't ever shoot at them, and I don't allow anyone else to shoot at them either.

HAHA

Do I remember correctly that you live on a pretty big spread? Otherwise, having 15 deer (and many bucks) hanging out in your yard may be a sign of an insufficient food supply this early in the year, and that the herd needs to be culled.

 

[SamAndreas]

Do I remember correctly that you live on a pretty big spread? Otherwise, having 15 deer (and many bucks) hanging out in your yard may be a sign of an insufficient food supply this early in the year, and that the herd needs to be culled.

20 acres. We have plenty of predators this year. Coyotes are currently way overpopulated. Large cats, bobcats and lions, are coming back from a population collapse.

Two years ago the deer were overpopulated and some were starving. A few died. This year they're on a rebound from that and are quite well fed and healthy. Next year or the year following they will have overpopulated again and that cycle repeats.

The wild turkey population is down this year. It was also a bad year for hummingbirds.

I haven't seen a human hunter in this part of California in more than 10 years. I don't have to tell them to go away, there's none of them around. It's the extreme fire danger, a hunter would start a huge forest fire shooting a rifle around here before the late fall rains.

 

[baarbogast]

 

[SamAndreas]

Some Ph D fellow on Twitter made light of the part of her statement which read, "Russia still has its artillery stationed there which it still pretty much uses."

He asked with snark, "But how does one “pretty much use” artillery?" "Are they using it, or not using it?"


Her statement was fine. I have the answer for that. In a damp swampy wind swept sandy place like that "pretty much using" any kind of modern machinery which involves close tolerances to function is about as good as it would ever get.

After a gun had been there for a month one would be lucky to get it to function at all. Fine adjustments needed to aim it would be glitchy with sand embedded in rust. The breech block would not want to be opened, or to close once opened.






https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1592430591999635456

 

[baarbogast]

 

[baarbogast]