Ukraine (17 Viewers)

[Sailorsaint]

I saw a video of a targeted building beeing blown up. When it was over the voice of the drone pilot says something to the effect of "Scratch 200 Russians." I sure hope that's not how they do it.

I think they get their estimates from a combination of collected data. First, chatter about troop movement, second from US intel like chatter and satelite info, third just observing troop movement over a length of time. They probably put all that info in a pile and make an educated guess. I'm sure they probably add about 20% to the estimate for morale purposes.

 

[baarbogast]

I think he was referring specially to the counts. Unless I'm wrong, I think it's sort of how they do it, but only the numbers they can confirm, which is why lots of people think it could be a WHOLE LOT more.

Like if the video guy says 200, but no one can actually confirm on the Ukraine side, then they would go to the social media chatter from the Russians about the incident and try to determine what number goes into the count for that event.

Again, I could be way off.

I think 200 is the code number for dead, not necessarily the number dead.

 

[SamAndreas]

Earlier today I said I didn't buy the argument that a Thorsten Benner tweet made.

Now Phillips O'Brien uses that same tweet as a good bad example of irresponsible reporting about Germany about the Leopard tank issue.

O'Brien shows in this article that Ukraine is not upset about the results of that Ramstein meeting, they are delighted with the results.

Weekend Update #12

Ramstein: What Matters More, What Matters Less

phillipspobrien.substack.com

One of the indications of narcissism is someone who routinely gives another what they want to give them, rather than what that person actually wants and needs. Ask first before bearing great gifts is my advice for all great gift giving.

 

[Sailorsaint]

Earlier today I said I didn't buy the argument that a Thorsten Benner tweet made.

Now Phillips O'Brien uses that same tweet as a good bad example of irresponsible reporting about Germany about the Leopard tank issue.

O'Brien shows in this article that Ukraine is not upset about the results of that Ramstein meeting, they are delighted with the results.

Weekend Update #12

Ramstein: What Matters More, What Matters Less

phillipspobrien.substack.com

One of the indications of narcissism is someone who routinely gives another what they want to give them, rather than what that person actually wants and needs. Ask first before bearing great gifts is my advice for all great gift giving.

Yes, a very good week for UKR. But, it was no thanks to Germany. The rest of NATO stepped up their commitments to try and end this war sooner rather than later. Germany is really doing themselves a disservice with their policy. I’m not sure why they think they need to stay on good terms with putin because he won’t be in charge after this.

 

[baarbogast]

 

[Sailorsaint]

That’s funny. Germany….We forbid anyone from sending Leopards to UKR. Poland….We don’t care what Germany says, we will be sending Leopards to UKR. Germany….We have decided to allow our friends to send Leopards to UKR.

 

[baarbogast]

 

[boutte]

Yes, a very good week for UKR. But, it was no thanks to Germany. The rest of NATO stepped up their commitments to try and end this war sooner rather than later. Germany is really doing themselves a disservice with their policy. I’m not sure why they think they need to stay on good terms with putin because he won’t be in charge after this.

Germany is actually doing a lot. They don't want to send weapons for some convoluted reasons dealing with guilt from WW2 or some such. It just really comes down to the current German administration. And a lot of dirty politics which is a hallmark of Russia/USSR.

 

[BigFrosty]

 

[SamAndreas]

This credible article says Soldar has fallen to the Russians.

It seems to like this comes about three weeks since the first of many less credible Russian source articles were saying the same thing.

I don't see it as that big a deal in the overall outlook for Ukraine, just a minor fluctuation along the line of battle. In light of the cost for the Russians to take this small town this was a clear Ukrainian victory, because with very more of these kinds of costly Russian victories, Russia will lose this war.

With the loss of Soledar, Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut jeopardized

The dramatic fight for Soledar, part of the Battle of Bakhmut, is over — although Ukraine's leadership is still reluctant to acknowledge the loss. As a result of a localized offensive operation in January, Russian forces managed to gnaw through

kyivindependent.com

 

[BigFrosty]

Main Battle Tractors are back in action. Legends never die.

 

[SamAndreas]

This looks like a time when dry leather gloves over several pairs of latex surgical gloves are needed before grabbing the wire like the way someone in that tank did to solve that problem.

The power would be cut off of any wire laying on wet muddy ground. That isn't the problem. What is the problem is static charge building up in a wire if the wind blows across the downed wire even a little bit on the still elevated portions of that wire. Two or three miles of wire in the wind can become a serious problem. I've had that kind of static charge kick the stuffing out of me before.

Usually not deadly, just very painful.

 

[boutte]

When you say "I sure hope that's not how they do it," I'm not exactly sure what you are referring to.

You could be meaning how they count the dead. Or you could be meaning the voice over language they are using to celebrate the deaths of 200 "scratched" Russians.

In the event that it's the language they are using, that is perfectly normal for perfectly normal people after a perfectly normal war has gone on for several months.

The degree to which perfectly normal warfare generates perfectly normal breathtaking hatred amount perfectly normal combatants is well,,,breathtaking. They are perfectly normal victims of war, not monsters.

Rambo is a time worn story of the perfectly normal aftermath of perfectly normal wars.

Grimm isn't it?

What I meant is that the building was believed to be housing 200 men. The building was completely destroyed. It was recorded on video so no one is disputing that.
I'm just saying that counting any deaths from the footage shown or what the pilot saw would be a stretch.

Not that it matters really. I never put much faith in those numbers anyway. Equipment is a different story.

 

[BigFrosty]

Good read as this concern is often brought up.

 

[baarbogast]

This credible article says Soldar has fallen to the Russians.

It seems to like this comes about three weeks since the first of many less credible Russian source articles were saying the same thing.

I don't see it as that big a deal in the overall outlook for Ukraine, just a minor fluctuation along the line of battle. In light of the cost for the Russians to take this small town this was a clear Ukrainian victory, because with very more of these kinds of costly Russian victories, Russia will lose this war.

With the loss of Soledar, Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut jeopardized

The dramatic fight for Soledar, part of the Battle of Bakhmut, is over — although Ukraine's leadership is still reluctant to acknowledge the loss. As a result of a localized offensive operation in January, Russian forces managed to gnaw through

kyivindependent.com

There was a video on Youtube explaining this. Basically, Soledar and Bahkmut are being assaulted as way to draw Ukrainian forces from Kreminna.

The Ukrainians want Kreminna as a way to block ground logistics to the north. Appearantly, there are no railroads to the area the Russian forces are to the north. Kreminna, has a major highway interchange and that would cause a collapse like Kharkiv, Chernikov and Kiev.

The Russian theory is that by applying more pressure to Bahkmut/Soledar area, Ukraine will send forces there. While it stinks for the civilians there, both sides are actually making sound military decisions.

 

[BigFrosty]

Looks like an older vid, but wow. Don't see this very often.