Ukraine (29 Viewers)

[Sailorsaint]

Not sure its been mentioned but this is eerily familiar to the 1938 Yellow River Flood performed by the Chinese Nationalist Army. Scorched earth tactic but it worked - it blocked the IJA from capturing areas across the flood plain.

1938 Yellow River flood - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I'm not sure how much this helps Russia in the long run - it only buys time.

I think that russia thought they were going to cause some light flooding, that's why they didn't warn their own troops. They wanted to make the Dnipro uncrossable but the dam had other ideas. They weakened it to the point that it totally collapsed.

 

[baarbogast]

 

[Tapxe]

In an interview and in that interpreted chat above, if the UAF over-ran RuAF, they were to blow the dam.

The shift changes and the new guy finds the remote.

 

[SamAndreas]

What they didnt count on was the flooding of their '1st line" of defense. That didnt help them much.

However, there is NO way across the Dnipro now...so the only way troops/equipment can make their way S/SW is thru Zaphorizhia region - corralling them into that one corridor of entry. That could present a problem down the line. No amphibious assault was ever really gonna happen- so it was going to come from Zap/Nova Khakova area - but they had 2 areas of ingress/egress- now just one. So the plan probably changes a bit. Seal off from Zap to Berdyank- split the RuAF in 2. ( kherson left bank and south to Crimea and from Berdyansk north to Donbass area. Then work em both ways

IDFK - I just hope whatever they do, works. Im just tired of watching Russian forces obliterate towns, cities, people, animals with no remorse or regard for humanity. Im over it. Totally. If i was single, id be over there, in some capacity, doing whatever i could to fight these orcs.

I hate bullies. Hate them. Found out from an early age that bullies want nothing to do with someone who fights back. Relentlessly and without regard to their own safety. They COUNT on restraint from others. When the reigns are off, its a whole different fight. RuAF has found this out and now resorting to complete devastation of Ukraine and it has to stop.

This hasn't made crossing the river impossible. It's running higher and swifter, but if say the Ukrainians have an amphibious vehicle that can swim the river, it can still swim the river. A boat is still a boat.

There was a short term initial "wall of water" surge which would have made crossing very dangerous, but once that swept on down stream it's now a bigger river.

There's a possibility that it would make achieving a beach head on the far side easier because it might have pushed some Russian defenders out of their prepared defenses.

A bridging crew would need additional elements to cross a wider span, but even that would be possible.

 

[Tapxe]

This hasn't made crossing the river impossible. It's running higher and swifter, but if say the Ukrainians have an amphibious vehicle that can swim the river, it can still swim the river. A boat is still a boat.

There was a short term initial "wall of water" surge which would have made crossing very dangerous, but once that swept on down stream it's now a bigger river.

There's a possibility that it would make achieving a beach head on the far side easier because it might have pushed some Russian defenders out of their prepared defenses.

A bridging crew would need additional elements to cross a wider span, but even that would be possible.

I read that after the initial surge it would be a more narrow crossing as well which would help Ukraine as well.

I suppose that is dependent on them making it across prior to defense lines coming back.

 

[baarbogast]

 

[baarbogast]

If this derails the thread I will delete

 

[DCSaints_Fan]

This hasn't made crossing the river impossible. It's running higher and swifter, but if say the Ukrainians have an amphibious vehicle that can swim the river, it can still swim the river. A boat is still a boat.

There was a short term initial "wall of water" surge which would have made crossing very dangerous, but once that swept on down stream it's now a bigger river.

There's a possibility that it would make achieving a beach head on the far side easier because it might have pushed some Russian defenders out of their prepared defenses.

A bridging crew would need additional elements to cross a wider span, but even that would be possible.

Can't cross it in force though (can't move heavy equipment or supply large numbers of troops ) Of course I'm not quite sure how much they could do this before either. Nova Khakova seemed crossable for heavy trucks/equipment unlike Antonvsky bridge which I don't think has been repaired yet (and won't be repairable until Russians are pushed out of range). But its still a bottleneck and obvious target for airstrikes/artillery, in other words UAF would have the same problem they gave the Russians last year supplying troops across the river

 

[BigFrosty]

 

[Sailorsaint]

If this derails the thread I will delete

It’s a good point to be made.

 

[BigFrosty]

 

[staphory]

If this derails the thread I will delete

As far back as the 80s I used to wonder why anything the U.S. or NATO did was bad but anything the Russians were doing was met with silence at best.

 

[boutte]

This hasn't made crossing the river impossible. It's running higher and swifter, but if say the Ukrainians have an amphibious vehicle that can swim the river, it can still swim the river. A boat is still a boat.

There was a short term initial "wall of water" surge which would have made crossing very dangerous, but once that swept on down stream it's now a bigger river.

There's a possibility that it would make achieving a beach head on the far side easier because it might have pushed some Russian defenders out of their prepared defenses.

A bridging crew would need additional elements to cross a wider span, but even that would be possible.

I was thinking the same thing. In fact I initially thought Ukraine blew it for that very reason. The flood eliminated the first line of defense (and some Russian troops) for them. Then I heard about the 450 tons of fuel oil that's mixed in and knew Ukraine would never do that. It's a true catastrophe.

 

[Sailorsaint]

He pretty much thinks the same thing I think. I don't think the russians expected the level of destruction. It's of course their fault because they wouldn't allow anyone to inspect the dam after repairs were made, probably because they had already loaded it with explosives. I think they planned to blow the dam, flooding a large area, not caring if people die, in order to disrupt the coming offensive. But, because of their shoddy repairs and lack of knowledgeable inspections, the whole thing went. Now, they need to reap what they sow. If the ZNPP spills radiation into the river now, it will flow all the way to the Med. That would be a world changing event now, not just a portion of Europe.

 

[SamAndreas]

I read that after the initial surge it would be a more narrow crossing as well which would help Ukraine as well.

I suppose that is dependent on them making it across prior to defense lines coming back.

Eventually, after the water runs down, in the fall the river will be narrower. A lot of water has to flow downstream first, It will take many days or even a couple months.

And yes there will be a race to reestablish lines between the Ukrainians and Russians.


There is much of that "both sides" narrative in the media news at the moment about who caused it. There is one bit of information in my mind that is crucial, supposedly there were seismic shocks measured at 2:50 local time. If that is true I would be willing to blow off any more of that "both sides" debate and go straight to blaming the Russians. Those shocks would imply explosives used, rules out that the dam broke on it's own because the water level was high explanation that seems to have caught the fancy of the press.

I put the Washington Post out on the cold porch to spend the nights out in the cold for probably months on end over their "both sides" coverage today. Grrr.

Even if the dam did break on it's own it would still be the Russian's fault because the caused the water to be high. And their war disrupted normal maintenance work on the dam.