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Donetsk is a hard nut to crack, the terrain and the fact that it's highly industrialized and has a lot of urban areas makes very it defensible. If that's what they're going for it's going to be a long bloody slog. They have to do it sooner or later though. I kind of figured they'd save it for last.I've been reading and watching a lot of those videos. The prevailing impression is that the big push will be toward the south, and a lot of that idea seems to be because that's where there has been some action in force lately.
I don't see those tea leaves. What I see is a long drawn out feint toward the south in force to draw Russian forces there. All those bloggers and video makers both Russian and Ukrainian are helping Ukraine create the impression that is where it will go.
The Crimea bridge is needed by Ukraine to allow Russia to move their forces there with more ease.
I think Ukraine plans to take back Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, the places that Russian has basically held through their proxies since 2014. They are where Russia shares a border with Ukraine. The are the places that are crucial to have taken back before any peace talks get started if Ukraine is to recover all of their lost territory including Crimea.
Those areas which are not directly connected to Russia by a land border Russia has a weaker claim to. And without a direct border contact Russia would have a lot harder time supporting in isolation even during a time of peace.
So this year Ukraine needs to get back those areas with a land border with Russia. Because next year might bring peace talks to the table, and Ukraine needs that strategic footing to be held by them before that occurs and the lines are frozen with a ceasefire for negotiations.
This entire conflict has been a very long (in about two weeks, it will officially mark 16 months since Russia first invaded sovereign Ukrainian soil), extremely bloody slog. How many Russian, Ukrainian soldiers, innocent civilians, good deal and percentage of Ukraine's basic, and hardline infrastructure has been bombed, blown up, demolished, at least partially destroyed in cities like Kherson, Bakhmut, Odessa, Kharkiv, Mariupol, and finally Kviv, which has been bombed almost daily for close to a year and a half with Iranian-made "suicide drone" missiles which turned a bustling, beautiful historical ancient city dating back to the Viking Age and Varangian Guard with a lot of promise, exciting potential and hopeful sense and optimism with citizens living happy, carefree lives just two short years ago, has seen its bridges, traffic lights, schools, hospitals, businesses, apartments, homes destroyed by Russian and Belarusian drones, mortar strikes, machine gun fire, tank shells, mortar shells and a good portion of the population has left and since re-settled in European countries, Canada or the USA. Many will likely never return because what they once had there is all gone.Donetsk is a hard nut to crack, the terrain and the fact that it's highly industrialized and has a lot of urban areas makes very it defensible. If that's what they're going for it's going to be a long bloody slog. They have to do it sooner or later though. I kind of figured they'd save it for last.
Much logic here - hope you are right. Also, is it true that Russia’s lesser troops are weaker fortifications are in the east rather than the south?So this year Ukraine needs to get back those areas with a land border with Russia. Because next year might bring peace talks to the table, and Ukraine needs that strategic footing to be held by them before that occurs and the lines are frozen with a ceasefire for negotiations.