Ukraine (36 Viewers)

[Mr. Sparkle]

In all of those places Russia maintains an illegal foothold. They occupy land that is internationally recognized as belonging to Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine.

They do so because it keeps those nations from being able to join NATO as joining while occupied would trigger article 5.

That way they can continue their push to support insurrection, sepratists, and plans to bite off more territory in the future without the worry of direct western involvement.

I get it. They're rotten bastages.

But at a certain point the facts on the ground are what they are, and it becomes deal-cutting time, regardless of how distasteful it might be.

 

[baarbogast]

 

[efil4stnias]

I get it. They're rotten bastages.

But at a certain point the facts on the ground are what they are, and it becomes deal-cutting time, regardless of how distasteful it might be.

But in order to "cut a deal" you must have leverage.

The ONLY leverage Putin understands, is civil unrest ( aka loss of control/power). Thats it.

He has no problem tossing as much Russian human life ( aka cannon fodder ), dilapidated military equipment, artillery shells ( into every corner of a residential city devoid of ANY military value ) as need be to achieve his goal.

So outside if civil unrest, the Ukrainians have no leverage as Putin wont stop tossing all of the above into the war.

There is no "negotiating" with someone like this. There is no "deal cutting" outside of his EXPRESSLY STATED GOAL OF COMPLETE control of Ukrainian land.

Full stop.

So then tell me how you are to approach this negotiation/deal ?

 

[Mr. Sparkle]

But in order to "cut a deal" you must have leverage.

The ONLY leverage Putin understands, is civil unrest ( aka loss of control/power). Thats it.

He has no problem tossing as much Russian human life ( aka cannon fodder ), dilapidated military equipment, artillery shells ( into every corner of a residential city devoid of ANY military value ) as need be to achieve his goal.

So outside if civil unrest, the Ukrainians have no leverage as Putin wont stop tossing all of the above into the war.

There is no "negotiating" with someone like this. There is no "deal cutting" outside of his EXPRESSLY STATED GOAL OF COMPLETE control of Ukrainian land.

Full stop.

So then tell me how you are to approach this negotiation/deal ?

Tell him he gets to keep the Donbas and Crimea, Ukraine stays out of NATO, but otherwise remains sovereign/neutral and will continue to be armed to the teeth by the West.

The same rough parameters that have been floating around for months. Obviously I still believe we will end up there one way or the other.

I keep waiting for some sign that things on the ground have changed dramatically that will change my thinking but here we are. We get 50 updates per day (God bless @baarbogast) but things are pretty much the same as they were in June or April or February.

 

[baarbogast]

 

[efil4stnias]

Tell him he gets to keep the Donbas and Crimea, Ukraine stays out of NATO, but otherwise remains sovereign/neutral and will continue to be armed to the teeth by the West.

The same rough parameters that have been floating around for months. Obviously I still believe we will end up there one way or the other.

And then what happens the 4th time he illegally annexes a sovereign nation?

Repeat?

I mean cmon now...you are capitulating and bowing to his use of force. All that does is set him up for his next invasion.

Or do we "Draw the line " at #5 ? if we do, why didnt we at #4?

 

[baarbogast]

 

[baarbogast]

Tell him he gets to keep the Donbas and Crimea, Ukraine stays out of NATO, but otherwise remains sovereign/neutral and will continue to be armed to the teeth by the West.

The same rough parameters that have been floating around for months. Obviously I still believe we will end up there one way or the other.

I keep waiting for some sign that things on the ground have changed dramatically that will change my thinking but here we are. We get 50 updates per day (God bless @baarbogast) but things are pretty much the same as they were in June or April or February.

I totally disagree you. Giving him the Donbas and Crimea takes away a lot of the natural resources, fertile crop land, and most of the seaports. In effect you turned them into the Iowa of Europe. You are also hoping that in 5-10 years Russia won't go back in to claim the rest of it,

 

[Mr. Sparkle]

And then what happens the 4th time he illegally annexes a sovereign nation?

Repeat?

I mean cmon now...you are capitulating and bowing to his use of force. All that does is set him up for his next invasion.

Or do we "Draw the line " at #5 ? if we do, why didnt we at #4?

Until he annexes a NATO country or some other nation of strategic importance to the US, there is not a lot we can (or, I would argue, should) do about it.

That's certainly been true about Ukraine for a long time.

What happens between Russia and her next door neighbors should not trigger an automatic US response, even if its illegal/bad.

 

[baarbogast]

James Vasquez has put up some of his gopro video,

 

[efil4stnias]

Until he annexes a NATO country or some other nation of strategic importance to the US, there is not a lot we can (or, I would argue, should) do about it.

That's certainly been true about Ukraine for a long time.

What happens between Russia and her next door neighbors should not trigger an automatic US response, even if its illegal/bad.

If you cannot see the strategic importance of Ukraine to the West/NATO, i cant help you as your mind is already made up.

 

[Mr. Sparkle]

If you cannot see the strategic importance of Ukraine to the West/NATO, i cant help you as your mind is already made up.

Ukraine is important for the US and the entire world, for sure. But our options are very limited, so I'm hoping to salvage the best deal possible.

I know I'm the debby downer of this thread so I will let it be. Will check back in a few weeks and hopefully things will have materially improved for UKR before winter.

 

[baarbogast]

 

[efil4stnias]

Ukraine is important for the US and the entire world, for sure. But our options are very limited, so I'm hoping to salvage the best deal possible.

I know I'm the debby downer of this thread so I will let it be. Will check back in a few weeks and hopefully things will have materially improved for UKR before winter.

nah not a "deb downer" - i am truly curious why you think its of the upmost importance that a deal get done that gives RF the Donbas and Crimea ( officially )

If you neighbor wakes up tomorrow morning, knocks down the fence between yards and stakes out 15 ft into your yard to claim as his, and you come out to find him doing, you allow him to annex your yard and say " ehhh its better for all to keep the peace" or you sue him?

 

[Mr. Sparkle]

nah not a "deb downer" - i am truly curious why you think its of the upmost importance that a deal get done that gives RF the Donbas and Crimea ( officially )

If you neighbor wakes up tomorrow morning, knocks down the fence between yards and stakes out 15 ft into your yard to claim as his, and you come out to find him doing, you allow him to annex your yard and say " ehhh its better for all to keep the peace" or you sue him?

If its MY neighbor, I'm taking action. (This would be Ukraine's position)

If its YOUR neighbor and you live on the other side of the country but we do business together, I'm willing to provide some free legal advice but I'm not coming out of pocket to fight your neighbor. Sorry....