Ukraine (21 Viewers)


The sooner, the better.
Putin or no Putin, Ukraine has the upper hand. This conflict should only end in one way....the complete withdrawal of all Russian forces from Donbas and Crimea. Don't agree to a ceasefire for "talks". Don't make any concessions on how you run your own country in the future. And never, never, believe anything a Russian diplomat tells you implicitly.
 
Putin or no Putin, Ukraine has the upper hand. This conflict should only end in one way....the complete withdrawal of all Russian forces from Donbas and Crimea. Don't agree to a ceasefire for "talks". Don't make any concessions on how you run your own country in the future. And never, never, believe anything a Russian diplomat tells you implicitly.
It could end up as a pyrrhic victory for Ukraine. As this article points out Ukraine has still lost significant territory on the South and East. Does Ukraine have the combat power to retake it? I'm not an expert but it would be extremely costly for the Ukrainians as offensive operations cost much more in terms of supply and casualties then defense.
I think that as some point Russia will "claim" victory and set up puppet states. Ukraine likely won't have the combat power to oppose it.
 
It could end up as a pyrrhic victory for Ukraine. As this article points out Ukraine has still lost significant territory on the South and East. Does Ukraine have the combat power to retake it? I'm not an expert but it would be extremely costly for the Ukrainians as offensive operations cost much more in terms of supply and casualties then defense.
I think that as some point Russia will "claim" victory and set up puppet states. Ukraine likely won't have the combat power to oppose it.

Yeah, that’s not a very good article. I know it’s from Time magazine or whatever, but it reads like it was written by a very young person.
 
It could end up as a pyrrhic victory for Ukraine. As this article points out Ukraine has still lost significant territory on the South and East. Does Ukraine have the combat power to retake it? I'm not an expert but it would be extremely costly for the Ukrainians as offensive operations cost much more in terms of supply and casualties then defense.
I think that as some point Russia will "claim" victory and set up puppet states. Ukraine likely won't have the combat power to oppose it.
Great Britain didn't stand a chance against Germany either.
 
Yeah, that’s not a very good article. I know it’s from Time magazine or whatever, but it reads like it was written by a very young person.
Jayanti is an Eastern Europe energy policy expert. She served for ten years as a U.S. diplomat, including as the Energy Chief at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine (2018-2020), and as international energy counsel at the U.S. Department of Commerce (2020-2021). She is currently the Managing Director of Eney, a U.S.-Ukrainian decarbonization company.

 
Jayanti is an Eastern Europe energy policy expert. She served for ten years as a U.S. diplomat, including as the Energy Chief at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine (2018-2020), and as international energy counsel at the U.S. Department of Commerce (2020-2021). She is currently the Managing Director of Eney, a U.S.-Ukrainian decarbonization company.


Yeah, born 1982. Explains a lot.
 
Great Britain didn't stand a chance against Germany either.
Apple and oranges IMO. But, I get the David vs. Goliath storyline. Facts are as I see them that Ukraine has put up a great perhaps historic defense and the Russians have proven incapable of major operations. But, try as they might the Ukrainians still have conceded a significate portion of the East and South of the country. As the Time "opinion" article pointed out the Ukrainian economy is in ruin and a lot of their cities and infrastructure has been smashed. They have made strong stands but gains only when the Russian retreated or lack the impetus to sustain their gains.
Only time will tell but considering that Russia smashed the Ukrainian offenses in the Donbass back in 2013-14 (estimated 10,000 Ukrainian killed). I would find it extremely difficult to believe that they have the combat power to push the Russian army back in 2022.
IMO only a political change in Moscow or a complete collapse or mutiny by the Russian army would swing the establishment of one or more puppet states in the Donbass. Again, just my opinion.
 
It could end up as a pyrrhic victory for Ukraine. As this article points out Ukraine has still lost significant territory on the South and East. Does Ukraine have the combat power to retake it? I'm not an expert but it would be extremely costly for the Ukrainians as offensive operations cost much more in terms of supply and casualties then defense.
I think that as some point Russia will "claim" victory and set up puppet states. Ukraine likely won't have the combat power to oppose it.
Ukraine has chased Russia out of Kyiv, Cherniv, Sumy and now Kharkiv. I don't see the reason why they can't do the same in the east and south. Russia is coming to a point where it will have to either mobilize which will be politically unpopular or cease hostilities. On top of that, they're equipment losses are not so easily replaced, whereas Ukraine is being supplied by the West. Russia military industry was not on a wartime footing, and relied on imports especially from the West which are now under sanction, which has halted production. This could eventually be fixed by a combination of finding alternate suppliers and sanction evasion, but you're talking about a year long project minimum. Every tank they lose now cannot be replaced except through their stockpile, and its questionable how many of those can be brought back into service. Ukraine has destroyed nearly 1000 tanks and Russia has maybe 3000 in reserve. So at the current loss rate Russia will be out of tanks at the end of the year. In addition, they have to train new crews which takes time

I think the 7% GDP decline for Russia is too conservative. I've seen estimates more like 15%.

The economic issues in Ukraine are troubling but are by no means a death sentence. The West will essentially have to subsidize the entire war effort as well as significant portion of the Ukranian economy. I think this is doable as long as the alliance holds together.
 

The sooner, the better.
I've read and believe a saying about palace coup's, it is that they either fail or succeed during the first half hour.

This report suggests a slow-mo coup creeping slowly into focus. I looked the articles author up at Twitter and did enjoy his pinned tweet. It seems like the video short is something our moderators could snag and use.

 
Yeah, that’s not a very good article. I know it’s from Time magazine or whatever, but it reads like it was written by a very young person.
The author who wrote that is about 40 years old and she is a diplomat with the US State department. She was assigned to work in the Ukraine. She has a Wikipedia page:


My take away from that article is this one sentence:

"Ukraine is in far worse shape than commonly believed and needs, and will continue to need, a staggering amount of aid and support to actually win."

I believe that to be true. And I also believe that they are going to get that staggering amount of aid that they need to win.

:)
 

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