Ukraine (39 Viewers)

[DaveXA]

Ukraine has chased Russia out of Kyiv, Cherniv, Sumy and now Kharkiv. I don't see the reason why they can't do the same in the east and south. Russia is coming to a point where it will have to either mobilize which will be politically unpopular or cease hostilities. On top of that, they're equipment losses are not so easily replaced, whereas Ukraine is being supplied by the West. Russia military industry was not on a wartime footing, and relied on imports especially from the West which are now under sanction, which has halted production. This could eventually be fixed by a combination of finding alternate suppliers and sanction evasion, but you're talking about a year long project minimum. Every tank they lose now cannot be replaced except through their stockpile, and its questionable how many of those can be brought back into service. Ukraine has destroyed nearly 1000 tanks and Russia has maybe 3000 in reserve. So at the current loss rate Russia will be out of tanks at the end of the year. In addition, they have to train new crews which takes time

I think the 7% GDP decline for Russia is too conservative. I've seen estimates more like 15%.

The economic issues in Ukraine are troubling but are by no means a death sentence. The West will essentially have to subsidize the entire war effort as well as significant portion of the Ukranian economy. I think this is doable as long as the alliance holds together.

While I agree with a lot here, I'd just say that there are logistical challenges that will become more acute the further east the Ukrainians advance because they'll have to go further to get the supplies and equipment to the front lines.

And for all the talk of UKR success in thwarting Russian air dominance, the reality it seems to me that Russia still largely controls the skies where it really matters in the eastern regions. It's not like UKR can call in air support to clear space for the army to advance into presently Russian occupied territories. The drones are helping, but they're not a substitute for gunships that can do a lot of damage to infantry and equipment, especially at night when it's difficult to see.

I'm not sure if Russian ground to air defenses have been sufficiently taken out for gunships to operate effectively, so idk.

I don't know what UKR has that compares to AC-130 gunships, Apaches and A-10s, but I think having similar weapons, equipment and vehicles would make a big difference in an offensive campaign.

 

[baarbogast]

I still maintain that when Putin was in surgery, that was the perfect time. Give him anesthesia and he never wakes up.

It gets put out that “cancer “ was to far along and a palace coup happens without a shot being fired.

 

[gavinj]

The author who wrote that is about 40 years old and she is a diplomat with the US State department. She was assigned to work in the Ukraine. She has a Wikipedia page:

Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

My take away from that article is this one sentence:

"Ukraine is in far worse shape than commonly believed and needs, and will continue to need, a staggering amount of aid and support to actually win."

I believe that to be true. And I also believe that they are going to get that staggering amount of aid that they need to win.

I’m not calling her dumb or uneducated, just a tad green imo.

 

[Sailorsaint]

Apple and oranges IMO. But, I get the David vs. Goliath storyline. Facts are as I see them that Ukraine has put up a great perhaps historic defense and the Russians have proven incapable of major operations. But, try as they might the Ukrainians still have conceded a significate portion of the East and South of the country. As the Time "opinion" article pointed out the Ukrainian economy is in ruin and a lot of their cities and infrastructure has been smashed. They have made strong stands but gains only when the Russian retreated or lack the impetus to sustain their gains.
Only time will tell but considering that Russia smashed the Ukrainian offenses in the Donbass back in 2013-14 (estimated 10,000 Ukrainian killed). I would find it extremely difficult to believe that they have the combat power to push the Russian army back in 2022.
IMO only a political change in Moscow or a complete collapse or mutiny by the Russian army would swing the establishment of one or more puppet states in the Donbass. Again, just my opinion.

They are much more similar than you think. Germany made a tactical error in thinking he would roll over Britain. Shouldn't have opened a second front in the east. Britain was outgunned and outmanned, and may not have held on had it not been for aid from the US. Churchill was very charismatic and pleaded with the US to help out. All of this sound familiar? This conflict mirrors WWII very eerily.

Ukraine had problems in 2013-14 and lost the Donbas. They have spent the last 5 years being trained and outfitted by NATO/US. As a matter of fact, there is still a NATO base in Ukraine. They are a much improved army while Russia is stuck in 80's.

While a political change in Moscow MAY change things, there is no guarantee. The next guy up may be just as bloodthirsty and be more savvy when it comes to fighting and propaganda. If this conflict ends with anything less than the complete removal of Russian influence in all of Ukraine's territory, it will not be a victory.

 

[BooBirdSaint]

They are much more similar than you think. Germany made a tactical error in thinking he would roll over Britain.

Well, technically Germany did roll over Britain and France & Belgum too. The BEF (390,000 men) in France ended up getting run out of France and losing all its equipment. France fell and had it not been for the English Channel... The English Moat er Channel was the only thing keeping Germany out of England.
Similarities - two dictators who motivated through a cult of personality and brutality act without reason and cause.

 

[gavinj]

Well, technically Germany did roll over Britain and France & Belgum too. The BEF (390,000 men) in France ended up getting run out of France and losing all its equipment. France fell and had it not been for the English Channel... The English Moat er Channel was the only thing keeping Germany out of England.
Similarities - two dictators who motivated through a cult of personality and brutality act without reason and cause.

Technically, Britain won the Battle of Britain and the only German I recall invading U.K. was Rudolf Hess, by himself.

 

[SamAndreas]

I've grown to be a bit irritated with Noam Chomsky as well.

 

[SamAndreas]

 

[DCSaints_Fan]

I've grown to be a bit irritated with Noam Chomsky as well.

While Chomsky does admit that Russia's invasion was criminal and did call the Kremlin "thugs", the thing that bugs me about him is the double standard he applies when the aggressor is not a Western country.

As a peacenik, I think he wants there to be some non-violent solution. He wants Ukraine, or more correctly the West through diplomatic pressure on Ukraine, to make territorial concessions and promise of neutrality despite it being "distasteful". He takes it as a given that Russia's leadership is nuts, and the only alternative to some type of capitulation on Ukraine's part is nuclear war.

But this is almost an exact mirror of what happened with respect to the Vietnam War. Yet there, he was highly critical of the US. Like why not blame North Vietnam for not negotiating in good faith and continuing to press the war. Didn't Nixon threaten to press the button there as well?

He also believes that the West and especially the US was somehow "undermining negotiations", which is laughable. He also heavily alluded that the war was "provoked" by the desire to expand NATO. I suppose that Russian leadership could feel provoked. The question is whether is whether it is a reasonable response.

 

[DCSaints_Fan]

Good thread on Russian troop levels.

Yeah I think the troop levels talk is a red herring. In a dictatorship, laws are just minor inconveniences. What really matters is power. Russia gets 250k conscripts a year. The order will go out to the governors and relevant officials, we need X amount of troops from your district this month. Since the conscripts are already training, they are at a military base and can be isolated. Select conscripts will be relatively easy to be tricked, threatened, or even forced at gunpoint into signing contracts. Especially the ones who come from families where they are less likely to be "missed" or cause trouble somehow. And there will be little consequence for doing this - there just isn't much option, no one is going to risk crossing Putin and his tracksuit pals.

 

[EGLSShin]

 

[Sailorsaint]

I thought it had ended badly there for a second.

 

[SamAndreas]

While Chomsky does admit that Russia's invasion was criminal and did call the Kremlin "thugs", the thing that bugs me about him is the double standard he applies when the aggressor is not a Western country.

As a peacenik, I think he wants there to be some non-violent solution. He wants Ukraine, or more correctly the West through diplomatic pressure on Ukraine, to make territorial concessions and promise of neutrality despite it being "distasteful". He takes it as a given that Russia's leadership is nuts, and the only alternative to some type of capitulation on Ukraine's part is nuclear war.

But this is almost an exact mirror of what happened with respect to the Vietnam War. Yet there, he was highly critical of the US. Like why not blame North Vietnam for not negotiating in good faith and continuing to press the war. Didn't Nixon threaten to press the button there as well?

He also believes that the West and especially the US was somehow "undermining negotiations", which is laughable. He also heavily alluded that the war was "provoked" by the desire to expand NATO. I suppose that Russian leadership could feel provoked. The question is whether is whether it is a reasonable response.

Yes, that does give voice to my irritation with him.

 

[SamAndreas]

A short film made from footage taken from the phone of Russian officer who is now a POW. It has English subtitles.

May 11, 2022 Ukrainian Pravda has received a video from the phone of a captured Russian soldier. This is the story of the life of Lieutenant Yuri Shalayev, a graduate of the Moscow Higher Command School, commander of the motorized infantry platoon of military unit 71718 (stationed in Chechnya), a representative of the elite of the Russian infantry. About how he lived and served in Russia before the "military special operation". How he came to Ukraine to fight. And how, in the end, the war ended for him as a prisoner. This story is a guide for all the successors of the Kremlin cadet Shalayev. How, at best, is the fate of those who become occupiers.

The beginning of the film of when the guy was a cadet before the war reminded me of my own time as a cadet in college. Especially the scenes of the guys partying. I once was at a military ball which was very similar to the one shown in the film.

 

[SamAndreas]

I thought it had ended badly there for a second.

POV, It depends on sides as to whether an ending at any point in the video would have been good or bad.

Those fellows happened to be Russians shooting at Ukrainians.