NFL (Update: Saints could be linked) - Jax has talked to teams about trading Leonard Fournette. (1 Viewer)

[SaintsFan742]

Payton didn't use Murray when we needed him most (vikings game). What would make anyone think fournette would be used any differently?

Running backs are never a problem in Payton's tenure; it's lack of use that's the main problem.

 

[blackadder]

One question I'd like someone to legitimately answer is why would having Fournette on this team all of a sudden snap Payton out of his run abandoning tendencies? He's shown time and time again with his playcalling that he a.) uses the pass to set up the run, regardless of whatever lip service he pays to the media, and b.) will abandon the run, even when it's working, for absolutely no reason.

Fournette coming into an offense where he would be lucky to see 15 carries/game would more than likely be a waste of time for all parties involved. For ****s and giggles, I looked through Fournette's career game logs at the number of carries he got in each game...

• 20+ carries (14 games): 348 carries, 1547 yards, 4.5 YPC, 11 TD

Pretty solid numbers there across the board. Now lets look at when he had between 15 and 19 carries...

• 15-19 carries (12 games): 201 carries, 699 yards, 3.5 YPC, 5 TD

His YPC drops a full yard and his yardage is sliced in half with only a 20% reduction in carries. Now how about when he receives less than 15 carries...

• < 15 carries (10 games): 117 carries, 385 yards, 3.3 YPC, 1 TD

That's not going to cut it when Murray had 416 yards on 19 less carries last year WHILE splitting carries with Kamara and he only hit more than 10 carries twice (Week 11 against Tampa Bay and Week 17 against Carolina).

Leonard Fournette Career Game Log | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Get Leonard Fournette Career game log for regular season and playoff games on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

And it's not like his YPC is suffering because of the amount of short yardage work he's asked to do.

Of Fournette's 666 career carries, only 97 of them were on short yardage downs (1-3 yards) which is right at 14.6%. For comparison, 19.2% of Murray's 146 carries last year were in short yardage situations and he still averaged 4.4 YPC for the year, so that'd more than likely put Fournette having to do even more short-yardage work than he has in his career, even with Payton being adamant of trying to run Kamara through a brick wall.


I agree, they aren’t mutually exclusive concepts; I never claimed they were. What I take exception to is the hypocrisy of some posters and the double standard being applied because of where a player went to school.

I participated in nearly every one of those threads that was in favor of jettisoning Ingram along with the countless other Ingram vs. Ivory/Robinson/Hightower/whatever-Saints-RB-not-named-Ingram threads. Some of these same posters from those threads that wanted Ingram gone after the 2013 season after averaging 4.1 YPC over the previous 3 years, are now foaming at the mouth over trading valuable draft capital for another RB that has averaged a worse YPC over his first 3 years, even though he was afforded nearly twice the number of opportunities. So what gives? Why was one held to a higher standard than the other?

You would figure the one that was a former top-5 pick would be receiving the most criticism for his performance instead of being coddled with excuses as to why he hasn't yet lived up to expectations.

He averaged 4.3 YPC in games where he and Kamara both played.

That is if his 5th year option is exercised. The deadline to do so last year for the 2016 1st rounders was May 3rd (the Friday after the 2019 Draft). I'm not seeing this year's date on the League's governance site, but if it's always the Friday after the Draft then that'd put the deadline for 2017 1st round picks on May 1st. So if they don't deal him before the deadline to exercise that option, they'll have to pick it up hoping they can deal him afterward.

Since Fournette was a top-10 pick (4th overall), his 5th year option would be the price of the 2020 transition tag for RB's which is calculated by the average of the top-10 highest RB salaries in the year the option is exercised putting his 2021 cap hit at $8,483,000 according to OTC and would become fully guaranteed for skill, cap, and injury if he's on the roster at the start of the 2021 league year.

We already exercised Lattimore and Ramczyk's 5th years (which should be around $14.197M and $13.505M respectively) so that'd put us carrying three, 5th-year options... oh, and we also probably will have to pay Kamara who would be an UFA at the start of the 2021 league year.

Lucky to get 10 carries a game.

 

[Eman5805]

	Games	Rushing
Rk	Player	Tm	Age	piece of work	G	GS	Att ▼	Yds	1D	YBC	YBC/Att	YAC	YAC/Att	BrkTkl	Att/Br
7	Leonard Fournette	JAX	24	RB	15	15	265	1152	55	360	1.4	792	3.0	16	16.6
31	Latavius Murray	NOR	29	RB	16	8	146	637	38	390	2.7	247	1.7	11	13.3

Now this is interesting. Murray's yards per attempt before contact is lower than Fournette's yards per attempt after contact.

 

[sfidc3]

I'm a Jaguars fan...and this comment might be enough to get you committed. Fournette isn't in the same stratosphere as Alvin Kamara. It's not even close.

QFT....Fournette isn't anywhere near as dynamic as Kamara, I don't think there is a team in the NFL that would take LF over Kamara....

It's hard for me to believe that there are still folks that want the Saints to trade for LF....I loved him at LSU but he is not a SP type back and if by some weird act we were to actually get him, SP would under utilize him....

The LSU RB that would fit our offense perfectly is CEH...though I doubt we will draft him, he does everything well....

 

[sammymvpknight]

QFT....Fournette isn't anywhere near as dynamic as Kamara, I don't think there is a team in the NFL that would take LF over Kamara....

It's hard for me to believe that there are still folks that want the Saints to trade for LF....I loved him at LSU but he is not a SP type back and if by some weird act we were to actually get him, SP would under utilize him....

The LSU RB that would fit our offense perfectly is CEH...though I doubt we will draft him, he does everything well....

Kamara played his worst last year and Fournette played his best. I'd STILL take Kamara...much more dynamic, more versatile, and more intelligent. Fournette doesn't have vision. He's a big fast linear man that will bust one every once in a blue moon when the OL is able to create a crater for him. And as "physical" as Fournette is...Kamara is significantly better at slipping tackles and yards after contact. Literally the only people who would take Fournette over Kamara are LSU homers who haven't been paying attention to Kamara and/or Fournette for the past three seasons. Again...I'm a Jags fan...I wish that I was wrong. But Fournette has been a catastrophe. The Jags could have McCaffrey or any number of much better players than Fournette at this point.

 

[44slayer]

I don't even consider Kamara and Fournette to play the same position at this point. Kamara is an offensive weapon, Fournette is a running back. Kamara isnt a traditional RB1, he needs a plus level RB to make him more effective and be able to last 16 games. Kamara had the opportunity when Ingram was suspended, and when Ingram left to handle a bigger role and just isn't durable enough for it. Nothing wrong with that, the guy is elite in the role he played his first 2 years. Any trade for Fournette wont have an impact on and wont involve Kamara. If this absolute pie in the sky rumor has any legs, it will likely involve draft picks and Murray.

 

[TribuneUK]

So history does not equate to what may, or could become. Any person with some reasonable amount of sense, would understand that. I am not saying it will happen, or would be successful. What I am saying, is just because in your opinion “someone would be doing it already” mindset, does not 100% guarantee and relate to anything going forward. Stay tuned, as I would warn.

My comments were directed to El Cal, rather than anything you'd added to the thread, so maybe some confusion there.

If you're referring to the two halfbacks comment I made, simple facts are that the guys paid huge amounts to come up with the best personnel groups and plays to win football games aren't using two halfbacks on the same field.

I'd be very confident that there is a reason they aren't, rather then it being some undiscovered formational gem they have yet to stumble on.

The additional speed/misdirection/mismatch option normally comes from a WR (or even QB) on the field instead, whether it's jet or motions to set up defensive uncertainty and flow in the wrong direction. You *might* see an HB line up as a slot/wing for those purposes but that's about it, I'd say.

 

[Que Que 6]

I'm a Jaguars fan...and this comment might be enough to get you committed. Fournette isn't in the same stratosphere as Alvin Kamara. It's not even close.

Give us the LSU LF maybe. LOL.

 

[baarbogast]

Several questions:
1) Fournette is being a problem child in Jax. Why would we trade Murray and a pick for him?
2) Why not Murray for Fournette straight up? or demand a 3 or 4 from them?
3) Wouldn't giving Washington, Murray's carries, be better?
4) Why not trade Murray and let Washington play special teams and get 5 carries a game?

 

[mjf504]

What I think some are missing here is not the comparison of AK and LF because there is none. It’s the idea that if we are going to lose AK next year to FA because Loomis has decided our cap won’t handle it then trading him is best if we actually want value for him. That’s not to say that we suck whatever we can out of him this year and let him go on his way next year which 50% chance we might get a comp pick for him if we do nothing to sign any FA.

With all that being said, his value is:
1. # 2 and #4 or #5 this year
2. # 2 this year and a #3 next year
3. # 3 this year and LF. Then draft AK replacement this year.
All of this is gets added consideration that we are going to have a partial or no season this year which means we won’t get much value from AK this year.

Let me add a something to the equation. What if SP has decided he needs to change the offense some since the Vikings game Brees was figured out and could not throw a screen pass that got us any good yards at all. We might have to go more power running.

 

[Alan12]

kudos on the work you put into this. Curious why a team like Jaq would run him less than 20 times though. I mean you draft a guy like that to be a heavy run team. Those are likely games where they abondoned the run because a. he wasn't 100 percent, b. they were playing the stiffest run defenses or c. they were playing down by 2 scores or more.

C is the only one that could potentially help his numbers. The other 2 would hurt them bad.

Much appreciated, Zack.

Here’s a tally up of the results of those games and the breakdown in the amount of touches he had in each...

20+ carries: 7-7 record, 348 carries

• 7 games decided by 1 score; 2-5 record, 172 carries for Fournette
  • 53 carries in 2 games won
  • 119 carries in 5 games lost
• 7 games decided by 9+ points; 5-2 record, 176 carries for Fournette
  • 131 carries in 5 games won
  • 45 carries in 2 games lost

15-19 carries: 6-6 record, 201 carries

• 5 games decided by 1 score; 2-3 record, 84 carries for Fournette
  • 32 carries in 2 games won
  • 52 carries in 3 games lost
• 7 games decided by 9+ points; 4-3 record, 117 carries for Fournette
  • 69 carries in 4 games won
  • 48 carries in 3 games lost

< 15 carries: 2-8 record, 117 carries

• 3 games decided by 1 score; 1-2 record, 32 carries for Fournette
  • 9 carries in 1 game won
  • 23 carries in 2 games lost
• 7 games decided by 9+ points; 1-6 record, 85 carries for Fournette
  • 11 carries in 1 game won
  • 74 carries in 6 games lost

Everyone can do what they will with these stats but they are what they are. I just like tossing them out for discussions sake.

Fournette is younger and has less wear-and-tear on him than Murray... I think they’re similar RBs, but LF has more upside long-term and LF is a superior pass catcher.

He is younger and currently has less wear, however that might not be for long considering how rapid Fournette is accumulating touches. Fournette has already had two 260+ carry seasons in 3 seasons in the NFL. If that trend and Murray’s production is similar to what he’s produced recently continue, Fournette will have have over 1,100 carries (providing he has ~235 carries in each the next two years) through his first 5 seasons while Murray will have around 1,300 through 8 seasons (providing he sees ~145 carries each season which is what he’s had the previous two seasons in a shared backfield role).

That’s not even factoring in Fournette’s 134 receptions and Murray’s 162. Currently Fournette has 800 touches in 3 seasons to Murray’s 1,207 touches in 6 seasons. That’s 266.7 touches/season for Fournette to Murray’s 201.6 touches/season.

Fournette already has just under 2/3rds of Murray’s 6-year workload (66.3%) in only 3 years. At that pace, I don’t see how any team could give up anything more than a late round pick for him (I wouldn’t give higher than a 5th) considering they’re highly unlikely to sign him to a big money deal with little tread left on his tires.

Payton didn't use Murray when we needed him most (vikings game). What would make anyone think fournette would be used any differently?

Running backs are never a problem in Payton's tenure; it's lack of use that's the main problem.

Lucky to get 10 carries a game.

Right? They think he’s going to come in here and get 20+ carries a game. LOOOOL.

It's hard for me to believe that there are still folks that want the Saints to trade for LF....I loved him at LSU but he is not a SP type back and if by some weird act we were to actually get him, SP would under utilize him....

The LSU RB that would fit our offense perfectly is CEH...though I doubt we will draft him, he does everything well....

And I do think CEH would do well in our system as well. How is his pass blocking though? That’s the only thing I haven’t really seen from him but admittedly I never really delved into his tape too heavily.

 

[Zack Lee]

so all but 3 of those games were games where they apparently abandoned the run due to being behind. And maybe more if they got slop points at the end of a game.

I think all signs point to us not getting much value unless we picked him up for way below what his likely market is. All the issues being that SP apparently doesn't value RBs as much as most coaches, he never goes ground and pound (well almost never) and despite all that we have had remarkable success with running backs that have been picked up in far later rounds. With the exception of his situational use (or lack there of) I think Paytons approach to the position has been pretty sound. But I can't put a finger on what gives with Murray anymore than the next guy.

 

[cajunman9]

We don't need Fournette.
I remember every time we played Alabama Fournette seemed to soil himself with those NFL quality defensive linemen Alabama had. With those Bama games Fournette lost his legendary status as a freak power back.
No thanks.

 

[St.Dan]

Fournette is someone else’s Murray. Thing is, we already have a Murray. With the right scheme and a complimentary defense, he’ll move the sticks.

 

[BBarnes]

Negative.

I get this is a heavy LSU board, but hopefully it’s now understood that he is not what people thought he was when he left school. Physical freak that never had to develop vision between the tackles and he’s paying for it in the NFL.

Had over 1100 yards and had 76 catches last year with a third string type of QB and terrible team.

But, I do agree. We won’t consider it and don’t really need to