USA Today article of analysis of Saints penalty disparity (1 Viewer)

gtaz21

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Yeah, here it goes ... I TOLD YOU SO.

This article is exactly what stat I was saying I wanted to see. What is the comparison between Saints opponents' number of penalties when they play the Saints vs their number of penalties when they don't play the Saints. Also, what kind of impact are those penalties having in the games? In this article, a sportswriter has done just what I asked for. He went to an analytics company and got them to crunch the numbers. Verdict? The disparity of Saints penalties vs their opponents is the largest its been in their opponents favor since they started keep track of the data 20 years ago. What else? Guess who the least penalized team is in the NFL? Yep, that's right ... whoever is playing the Saints that week. Which is what I thought. It doesn't matter whether you're one of the most penalized teams in the NFL or one of the least penalized teams in the NFL. If you're playing the Saints, you will be the least penalized team in the NFL for a week. That is proof-positive that the NFL is shafting the Saints week-in-and-week-out.

Also, Saints opponents get the most first downs via penalty than the opponents of any other team in the NFL. That answers the question of what kind of impact are the penalties having on the game. There can be no bigger impact than repeatedly extending drives for teams.

The only question remaining to be answered is, WHY? It could be revenge for introducing the PI challenge to the game. It could be that the NFL doesn't want the Saints in the Super Bowl. It could go way back to Bountygate. Or, it could be all of the above. I don't care. I just think it sucks.
 

Optimistic Ozzy

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I have a scenario for you: Let's say we are playing the team X, we have had some really bad calls throughout the game. Then in the 3rd quarter a blatant pass interference is not called against team X, even more blatant than last years blown Rams no call. Like to the point of it being so blatant that the receiver is cold cocked two seconds before the ball gets to the receiver. SP challenges, and the no call stands. Do you as a coach take your players off the field at that point? I think it may have to be done by some team, in some instance in the future. The scenario might be different with a team that has already been eliminated from the playoffs. I'm just venting my frustrations with no accountability regarding the officiating situation.
 

guidomerkinsrules

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I have a scenario for you: Let's say we are playing the team X, we have had some really bad calls throughout the game. Then in the 3rd quarter a blatant pass interference is not called against team X, even more blatant than last years blown Rams no call. Like to the point of it being so blatant that the receiver is cold cocked two seconds before the ball gets to the receiver. SP challenges, and the no call stands. Do you as a coach take your players off the field at that point? I think it may have to be done by some team, in some instance in the future. The scenario might be different with a team that has already been eliminated from the playoffs. I'm just venting my frustrations with no accountability regarding the officiating situation.
Man, I’ve has that same question and do NOT know the answer
I think the consequence would be significant
and I could even guess that SP and Ms Gayle have talked about this
 

insidejob

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I have watched every single game. What's your point though? I think we have been on the wrong end of some calls, but it doesn't appear to be some massive conspiracy. Refs are human they make mistakes. Some of them may even be corrupt and we should try point that out where we can. But threads suggesting some kind of conspiracy by the NFL against the saints seems asinine.

Why watch football if you believe the league is actively intervening in games? And why bring it up if you don't believe it is a conspiracy?
Here, with data: http://girodstreetendzone.com/the-saints-are-absolutely-getting-hosed/

And more data: http://girodstreetendzone.com/and-its-only-gonna-get-worse-unless-we-strike-back/

Written by one of our very own.
 

Infoman

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So, even if you assume the Saints are the most undisciplined team in football (not a normal trait under Payton), does that translate into other teams being on their best behavior consistently when playing the Saints? If you watch the games, you can easily see that there is not consistency in calls. Holding on the Saints somehow is not holding on the opponent, and so on.
I said as much... There is no consistency in calls... but I watch more than just Saints football... and that's a problem in every game. I watch it every week in every game... this weekend, I watched the Refs decide the Chargers / Denver game with a gifted last second PI call against the Chargers with 3 secs left on an un-catch-able jump ball.... those types of plays and calls have been inconsistent across the board all year...

I am not saying that the Refs are not bad, or inconsistent... They are.

I am saying that raw number of penalties for or against us doesn't mean much without context and substance...

And from what I have seen... we are very undisciplined in regards to penalties, we do commit a ton of legitimate penalties, and our opponents have to play near mistake free football to beat us...

That's just as much as logical deduction to explain these numbers as ... "the refs are just out to get us".

That's all I am saying.
 

NEBaghead

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But it does show it
It does not prove it beyond the shadow of a doubt- it doesn’t have to be the only conclusion that the data shows, but it certainly shows that the refs call the saints and their opponents differently
So what happens if the next 2 or 3 weeks the calls are more balanced. Does that mean it is an anomaly and we just got over excited about a 4 game stretch.
I agree the calls haven't gone our way the last 3-4 weeks but there are only a few calls that I thought were bogus and that doesn't out weigh the times the team shot themselves in the foot.
I am working on my Masters in Data Science so I have a fair amount of experience doing analysis and research in trends and the amount of data being presented isn't enough to draw a conclusion. Having someone review each penalty and determine if it is legitimate or not and if there were other calls that were missed for the other team would be a more scientific method for analysis. Also, the tendencies of the refs who made the calls should be analyzed. Do they always throw flags more often for certain penalties? Have they done it in the past for the Saints?
 

insidejob

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and our opponents have to play near mistake free football to beat us...
Yeah, but these teams supposedly playing nearly mistake free football ONLY against the Saints is the issue. You really think we managed to sack Matt Ryan nine times and their OL didn't hold us once? Please, man. If you do, you're being willfully blind.
 

efil4stnias

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I have a scenario for you: Let's say we are playing the team X, we have had some really bad calls throughout the game. Then in the 3rd quarter a blatant pass interference is not called against team X, even more blatant than last years blown Rams no call. Like to the point of it being so blatant that the receiver is cold cocked two seconds before the ball gets to the receiver. SP challenges, and the no call stands. Do you as a coach take your players off the field at that point? I think it may have to be done by some team, in some instance in the future. The scenario might be different with a team that has already been eliminated from the playoffs. I'm just venting my frustrations with no accountability regarding the officiating situation.
I dont think so. Because at the end of it all, doing so would absolutely ruin New Orleans' ability to do anything in the NFL ever again.

They have us by our Lutz.
 

insidejob

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Here is the two part article he posted late last night that digs into the discrepancy.

EDIT: Didn't realize your link was just to his site which has the two links I posted at the very top. Thought it was just a different article. My bad.
 

efil4stnias

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So what happens if the next 2 or 3 weeks the calls are more balanced. Does that mean it is an anomaly and we just got over excited about a 4 game stretch.
I agree the calls haven't gone our way the last 3-4 weeks but there are only a few calls that I thought were bogus and that doesn't out weigh the times the team shot themselves in the foot.
I am working on my Masters in Data Science so I have a fair amount of experience doing analysis and research in trends and the amount of data being presented isn't enough to draw a conclusion. Having someone review each penalty and determine if it is legitimate or not and if there were other calls that were missed for the other team would be a more scientific method for analysis. Also, the tendencies of the refs who made the calls should be analyzed. Do they always throw flags more often for certain penalties? Have they done it in the past for the Saints?
Ahhhh....the beauty of data. Especially when it can be manipulated by those in charge to "regress back to the mean". and the built-in "see? it was an anomoly".

its @#$@#$@#$ perfect.
 

guidomerkinsrules

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So what happens if the next 2 or 3 weeks the calls are more balanced. Does that mean it is an anomaly and we just got over excited about a 4 game stretch.
I agree the calls haven't gone our way the last 3-4 weeks but there are only a few calls that I thought were bogus and that doesn't out weigh the times the team shot themselves in the foot.
I am working on my Masters in Data Science so I have a fair amount of experience doing analysis and research in trends and the amount of data being presented isn't enough to draw a conclusion. Having someone review each penalty and determine if it is legitimate or not and if there were other calls that were missed for the other team would be a more scientific method for analysis. Also, the tendencies of the refs who made the calls should be analyzed. Do they always throw flags more often for certain penalties? Have they done it in the past for the Saints?
If you’re asking me in particular, I would hope that I would be honest about it
After the Texans game I noted how the saints were the beneficiary of calls they usually don’t get (might have even made a thread about it)
That was the last time I had that feeling tho
refs negating a TD in LA seemed to start a bad trend
 

dvdman

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I didn't need that article to see the obvious.....there is definitely a bias against the Saints when it comes to penalties.
 

NEBaghead

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Ahhhh....the beauty of data. Especially when it can be manipulated by those in charge to "regress back to the mean". and the built-in "see? it was an anomoly".

its @#$@#$@#$ perfect.
Without any evidence and just a gut feeling, I think we get the short end of the stick more times than not. My point was the data is inconclusive with how it was evaluated.
 

VPCajun

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Kind of a stretch to call this a "USA Today article," but yeah, the data here is staggering. Unfortunately, this just a fan blog-type of article that isn't going to be mainstream enough to make any noise on its own.

Perhaps someone should send this to Florio or someone to see if it can get some traction.
I, too, am curious as to the USA Today tag.

Other than being part of the URL, I don't see any connection to USA Today.
 

FootballLady

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Yeah, but these teams supposedly playing nearly mistake free football ONLY against the Saints is the issue. You really think we managed to sack Matt Ryan nine times and their OL didn't hold us once? Please, man. If you do, you're being willfully blind.
If you got 9 sacks in a game, I think that might be an indicator that they absolutely didn't hold.
 

efil4stnias

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Without any evidence and just a gut feeling, I think we get the short end of the stick more times than not. My point was the data is inconclusive with how it was evaluated.
I understand, but there doesnt need to be some new mathematical formula to decipher what you SEE.
 

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