USA Today article of analysis of Saints penalty disparity (1 Viewer)

gtaz21

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Yeah, here it goes ... I TOLD YOU SO.

This article is exactly what stat I was saying I wanted to see. What is the comparison between Saints opponents' number of penalties when they play the Saints vs their number of penalties when they don't play the Saints. Also, what kind of impact are those penalties having in the games? In this article, a sportswriter has done just what I asked for. He went to an analytics company and got them to crunch the numbers. Verdict? The disparity of Saints penalties vs their opponents is the largest its been in their opponents favor since they started keep track of the data 20 years ago. What else? Guess who the least penalized team is in the NFL? Yep, that's right ... whoever is playing the Saints that week. Which is what I thought. It doesn't matter whether you're one of the most penalized teams in the NFL or one of the least penalized teams in the NFL. If you're playing the Saints, you will be the least penalized team in the NFL for a week. That is proof-positive that the NFL is shafting the Saints week-in-and-week-out.

Also, Saints opponents get the most first downs via penalty than the opponents of any other team in the NFL. That answers the question of what kind of impact are the penalties having on the game. There can be no bigger impact than repeatedly extending drives for teams.

The only question remaining to be answered is, WHY? It could be revenge for introducing the PI challenge to the game. It could be that the NFL doesn't want the Saints in the Super Bowl. It could go way back to Bountygate. Or, it could be all of the above. I don't care. I just think it sucks.
 

bclemms

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I get it, it sucks that we got shafted last year, but threads like this are pretty juvenile. Firstly, you completely ignore the following from the article you quoted:

"A big part of the problem is limited sample size. Analyzing the game from a quantifiable perspective like this works in other sports like baseball and basketball because there are literally hundreds (if not thousands) of data points to work with, whereas football begins and ends very quickly, relying on a 16-game regular season and four-stage postseason tournament. Instances like this are easy to explain away as an outlier, a freak accident, against what recent history informs us. That said, it’s totally understandable if fans aren’t satisfied with that explanation. It’s frustrating to see your team get fouled for what the other squad gets away with, week in and week out. "

The sample size is not big enough to draw any statistically significant conclusions. So while the graph looks good to conspiracy theorists, it can't be interpreted in any meaningful way beyond that which is trivially obvious (the saints give up more penalties than their opponents).

Also, how are you able to watch football if you are so sure it's rigged? If the refs are trying to screw us, why get so emotionally involved dedicating time and effort into this sport? If you claim conspiracy when we lose you should also be happy to accept that the 2009 superbowl victory was a farce, and at that point you are basically just watching WWE.
I finally got to use the dead Falcons. Thanks!
 

CDeuce26

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You make the same mistake you accuse others of making
-small sample size ergo outlier -
There’s not enough data to prove outlier, so you’re making an assumption just like you wag your finger at others for doing
Not only that, the first chart DOES have a large enough sample size. While a 12 game sample size (this season) may not be enough, the first chart shows the rolling average penalties per game against us and against our opponents since 2006. That's almost 14 season worth of data. Although for the most part Saints penalties do seem to correlate with opponents penalties, there have been times of large disparity including the current trend in which the Saints are being penalized much more frequently than the opponent, which is highlighted in the chart.
 

bclemms

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Not only that, the first chart DOES have a large enough sample size. While a 12 game sample size (this season) may not be enough, the first chart shows the rolling average penalties per game against us and against our opponents since 2006. That's almost 14 season worth of data. Although for the most part Saints penalties do seem to correlate with opponents penalties, there have been times of large disparity including the current trend in which the Saints are being penalized much more frequently than the opponent, which is highlighted in the chart.
The chart is cute but anyone that has watched the Saints games this year doesn't need the chart. It's blatant and obvious.
 
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This just proves that when we're hoisting the Lombardi in February, it will without a doubt be the most incredible run of any team in NFL history because it's the only team that had to battle refs nonstop (after week 1 or so, that is) to win it all.
 
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What happens to you, or anyone else for that matter, if you make a mistake on the job?

And what happens if you repeat the mistake?

Do you get to invoke the "humans make mistakes" defense to keep your job?

We all know the answer to this. So what makes them different? Why is it acceptable to you as a consumer? I mean, if you have your home built and they put the garage where your master bedroom should be, that's cool right? Since you accept the whole humans make mistakes defense.
Best. Argument. Ever.
 

efil4stnias

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This just proves that when we're hoisting the Lombardi in February, it will without a doubt be the most incredible run of any team in NFL history because it's the only team that had to battle refs nonstop (after week 1 or so, that is) to win it all.
interesting conclusion.

and one that bears delving into.

The one thing that could make this ALL go away - the NFL/Refs pull back on this current tack, and we go thru the playoffs relatively penalty free and win the whole thing. Two things get accomplished...1) this ref bias narrative simply vanishes and 2) the NFL reaps the marketing of the storylines that would accompany the Saints run to the title.
 

ElGatoNegro

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why?

We questioned their ability...publicly. to the point of having a rule instituted to CHALLENGE them on NATIONAL TV.

So why do you find that unlikely to lead to bias?
Because it was clear to anyone that it was a blown call and something needed to be done. I just don't believe that all the individuals (or even a significant minority) that are refereeing are out to get us. We didn't challenge the ability of each individual ref in the league only the few that were directly involved in the play. I just don't see it.

Also, Ii would actually think that the refs may support us. There is at least the possibility that it could lead to them gaining full time employment in the nfl.
 

ElGatoNegro

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But it does show it
It does not prove it beyond the shadow of a doubt- it doesn’t have to be the only conclusion that the data shows, but it certainly shows that the refs call the saints and their opponents differently
Or it might show that the saints commit significantly more penalties. The only thing it actually shows is that there is more penalties blown against the saints than their opponents. It doesn't even beginning to show the reasons for it, especially over a sample size of almost nothing.
 

BoNcHiE

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12 games is a plenty big sample size to see trends, especially when it's so blatant. The bigger piece of evidence to me is not calls against the Saints, but the fact that other teams (even normally highly penalized teams) suddenly play their cleanest games against us every week.

Couple that with the singular events, such as last year's no call and this year's PI reversal (which absolutely did not meet the standard set before and that's being set after) and it's so freaking obvious that you'd have to just be a stupidly desperate contrarian to say there's nothing to see here.
 

ElGatoNegro

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All of that is still just numbers comparing our penalties to opponents penalties and then coming to grandiose conclusions: " This is statistically forking impossible. " he says without doing any statistical analysis at all.

In order to determine statistical significance, he would need to determine the average number of penalties over a given time period for every team in the league, then he would need to control for as many variables as he could and determine both the mean and standard deviation for penalties for and against. Then he would need to compare this to the actual numbers called on the saints this year in order to allow him to determine a confidence interval that we are in fact outside of normal territory. At no point will the conclusion be "statistically forking impossible", at best it would be "very unlikely".

*Edit: Apologies mods, I was not trying to trigger the swear filter, simply quoting from the article.
 
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To the guys that are talking about small sample sizes, I understand and agree. But the fact is the staggering number of big plays taken away by penalties against the Saints, both offensively and defensively. In particular, the three game stretch Atl-Tampa-Car was gruesome. Is it just a coincidence that most of the flags came on big plays? Again, you could make an argument here about sample size and even cause-effect.
But then there were calls that have nothing to do with statistics. For example, the two absurd OPI called on Cook and Thomas. Both reviewed, both upheld. A big play and a 2 point conversion. Even the commentators were easy that they should have been reversed. And even by the absurdly strict NFL standards for reversing, they should have been reversed (clear and obvious wrong call, the defenders initiated contacts).
Another example, against Tampa, Cam Jordan being hold from behind while running free at Winston for a drive-ending sack. Cam comes to a stop because is held. No other is within 5-10 yards from them, so the holding is clearly visible in real time. But the refs call a PI against PJ Wiliams!!
So maybe your statistical argument has a point, but couple it with blatantly biased calls, and you have the whole picture.
 

insidejob

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All of that is still just numbers comparing our penalties to opponents penalties and then coming to grandiose conclusions: " This is statistically forking impossible. " he says without doing any statistical analysis at all.

In order to determine statistical significance, he would need to determine the average number of penalties over a given time period for every team in the league, then he would need to control for as many variables as he could and determine both the mean and standard deviation for penalties for and against. Then he would need to compare this to the actual numbers called on the saints this year in order to allow him to determine a confidence interval that we are in fact outside of normal territory. At no point will the conclusion be "statistically forking impossible", at best it would be "very unlikely".

*Edit: Apologies mods, I was not trying to trigger the swear filter, simply quoting from the article.
@SaintJ Care to defend your analysis?
 
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All of that is still just numbers comparing our penalties to opponents penalties and then coming to grandiose conclusions: " This is statistically forking impossible. " he says without doing any statistical analysis at all.

In order to determine statistical significance, he would need to determine the average number of penalties over a given time period for every team in the league, then he would need to control for as many variables as he could and determine both the mean and standard deviation for penalties for and against. Then he would need to compare this to the actual numbers called on the saints this year in order to allow him to determine a confidence interval that we are in fact outside of normal territory. At no point will the conclusion be "statistically forking impossible", at best it would be "very unlikely".

*Edit: Apologies mods, I was not trying to trigger the swear filter, simply quoting from the article.
How many times in your life have you seen TWO defensive PIs for ELEVEN yards in TWELVE games? That’s statistically forking very unlikely.
 

insidejob

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If you got 9 sacks in a game, I think that might be an indicator that they absolutely didn't hold.
I think it's more of an indicator that we should have had 12 sacks. I saw Jordan mugged twice around the neck and Hendrickson straight up tackled on one of Matt Ryan's runs.
 

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