USA Today article of analysis of Saints penalty disparity (2 Viewers)

Ahhhh....the beauty of data. Especially when it can be manipulated by those in charge to "regress back to the mean". and the built-in "see? it was an anomoly".

its @#$@#$@#$ perfect.
Without any evidence and just a gut feeling, I think we get the short end of the stick more times than not. My point was the data is inconclusive with how it was evaluated.
 
Kind of a stretch to call this a "USA Today article," but yeah, the data here is staggering. Unfortunately, this just a fan blog-type of article that isn't going to be mainstream enough to make any noise on its own.

Perhaps someone should send this to Florio or someone to see if it can get some traction.

I, too, am curious as to the USA Today tag.

Other than being part of the URL, I don't see any connection to USA Today.
 
Yeah, but these teams supposedly playing nearly mistake free football ONLY against the Saints is the issue. You really think we managed to sack Matt Ryan nine times and their OL didn't hold us once? Please, man. If you do, you're being willfully blind.

If you got 9 sacks in a game, I think that might be an indicator that they absolutely didn't hold.
 
Without any evidence and just a gut feeling, I think we get the short end of the stick more times than not. My point was the data is inconclusive with how it was evaluated.

I understand, but there doesnt need to be some new mathematical formula to decipher what you SEE.
 
I get it, it sucks that we got shafted last year, but threads like this are pretty juvenile. Firstly, you completely ignore the following from the article you quoted:

"A big part of the problem is limited sample size. Analyzing the game from a quantifiable perspective like this works in other sports like baseball and basketball because there are literally hundreds (if not thousands) of data points to work with, whereas football begins and ends very quickly, relying on a 16-game regular season and four-stage postseason tournament. Instances like this are easy to explain away as an outlier, a freak accident, against what recent history informs us. That said, it’s totally understandable if fans aren’t satisfied with that explanation. It’s frustrating to see your team get fouled for what the other squad gets away with, week in and week out. "

The sample size is not big enough to draw any statistically significant conclusions. So while the graph looks good to conspiracy theorists, it can't be interpreted in any meaningful way beyond that which is trivially obvious (the saints give up more penalties than their opponents).

Also, how are you able to watch football if you are so sure it's rigged? If the refs are trying to screw us, why get so emotionally involved dedicating time and effort into this sport? If you claim conspiracy when we lose you should also be happy to accept that the 2009 superbowl victory was a farce, and at that point you are basically just watching WWE.
I finally got to use the dead Falcons. Thanks!
 
You make the same mistake you accuse others of making
-small sample size ergo outlier -
There’s not enough data to prove outlier, so you’re making an assumption just like you wag your finger at others for doing
Not only that, the first chart DOES have a large enough sample size. While a 12 game sample size (this season) may not be enough, the first chart shows the rolling average penalties per game against us and against our opponents since 2006. That's almost 14 season worth of data. Although for the most part Saints penalties do seem to correlate with opponents penalties, there have been times of large disparity including the current trend in which the Saints are being penalized much more frequently than the opponent, which is highlighted in the chart.
 
Not only that, the first chart DOES have a large enough sample size. While a 12 game sample size (this season) may not be enough, the first chart shows the rolling average penalties per game against us and against our opponents since 2006. That's almost 14 season worth of data. Although for the most part Saints penalties do seem to correlate with opponents penalties, there have been times of large disparity including the current trend in which the Saints are being penalized much more frequently than the opponent, which is highlighted in the chart.
The chart is cute but anyone that has watched the Saints games this year doesn't need the chart. It's blatant and obvious.
 
This just proves that when we're hoisting the Lombardi in February, it will without a doubt be the most incredible run of any team in NFL history because it's the only team that had to battle refs nonstop (after week 1 or so, that is) to win it all.
 
What happens to you, or anyone else for that matter, if you make a mistake on the job?

And what happens if you repeat the mistake?

Do you get to invoke the "humans make mistakes" defense to keep your job?

We all know the answer to this. So what makes them different? Why is it acceptable to you as a consumer? I mean, if you have your home built and they put the garage where your master bedroom should be, that's cool right? Since you accept the whole humans make mistakes defense.
Best. Argument. Ever.
 
This just proves that when we're hoisting the Lombardi in February, it will without a doubt be the most incredible run of any team in NFL history because it's the only team that had to battle refs nonstop (after week 1 or so, that is) to win it all.

interesting conclusion.

and one that bears delving into.

The one thing that could make this ALL go away - the NFL/Refs pull back on this current tack, and we go thru the playoffs relatively penalty free and win the whole thing. Two things get accomplished...1) this ref bias narrative simply vanishes and 2) the NFL reaps the marketing of the storylines that would accompany the Saints run to the title.
 
why?

We questioned their ability...publicly. to the point of having a rule instituted to CHALLENGE them on NATIONAL TV.

So why do you find that unlikely to lead to bias?

Because it was clear to anyone that it was a blown call and something needed to be done. I just don't believe that all the individuals (or even a significant minority) that are refereeing are out to get us. We didn't challenge the ability of each individual ref in the league only the few that were directly involved in the play. I just don't see it.

Also, Ii would actually think that the refs may support us. There is at least the possibility that it could lead to them gaining full time employment in the nfl.
 
But it does show it
It does not prove it beyond the shadow of a doubt- it doesn’t have to be the only conclusion that the data shows, but it certainly shows that the refs call the saints and their opponents differently

Or it might show that the saints commit significantly more penalties. The only thing it actually shows is that there is more penalties blown against the saints than their opponents. It doesn't even beginning to show the reasons for it, especially over a sample size of almost nothing.
 
12 games is a plenty big sample size to see trends, especially when it's so blatant. The bigger piece of evidence to me is not calls against the Saints, but the fact that other teams (even normally highly penalized teams) suddenly play their cleanest games against us every week.

Couple that with the singular events, such as last year's no call and this year's PI reversal (which absolutely did not meet the standard set before and that's being set after) and it's so freaking obvious that you'd have to just be a stupidly desperate contrarian to say there's nothing to see here.
 

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