Using Mike Detillier's Draft Guide to Get a Sense of the Draft (2020 Edition) (1 Viewer)

KingNene

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This is something I did last year so if you remember this opening couple paragraphs, you can just look at the rankings.

Every year, Mike Detillier does a fantastic draft guide, going over hundreds of prospects before the draft.

Like last year, I spent a few hours on a spreadsheet going over every pick from every team and averaging out the drafted players' grade in Mike D's Draft Report.

I want to say I think draft grades are dumb. Judging a player before they even play is dumb. There is no way to know how good a team's draft is. I just thought it would be interesting.

First a few things:
  • I will not be giving any of the grades of any prospects, only the overall average. I do this because I don't want to give you information that you should be buying from Mike D.
  • Some players I could not find in his guide. This does not mean those players are not in there, but I could not find them. It is a huge guide. If you find them, please say the page number and I will update the grade. DO NOT GIVE THEIR GRADE. If I could not find a player, they automatically got a 16.00 grade. Here are the players I could not find:
    • FS - Kenny Robinson - West Virginia/XFL (Carolina)
    • OT - Arlington Hambright - Colorado (Chicago)
    • SS - Vernon Scott - TCU (Green Bay)
    • TE - Tyler Davis - Georgia Tech (Jacksonville)
    • PK - Justin Rohrwasser - Marshall (New England)
    • ILB - Cassh Maluia - Wyoming (New England)
    • FS - Chris Jackson - Marshall (Tennessee)
  • Please do not take this as mine or Mike D's actual opinions on these drafts. Teams like the Vikings and Ravens got lower grades than I think they deserve and teams like the Raiders and Chargers did worse than their grade shows in my opinion.
  • There are some flaws with this system. It doesn't take into account when you took a player or the value of other players on the board at the time. Also, if a team has more later round picks, they are more likely to get a lower grade, even if they find some great value there, hurting teams like Minnesota.
  • In the end this is all just for fun. Don't take it too seriously. Draft grades are dumb.
  • If you want to check out last year's rankings, you can check them out here: https://saintsreport.com/threads/us...ort-to-get-a-sense-of-everyones-draft.407914/
Well, here are the grades I got. The higher the number the better (obviously):
  1. Cleveland Browns (18.56)
  2. Arizona Cardinals (18.43)
  3. Cincinnati Bengals (18.40)
  4. New York Jets (18.36)
  5. Dallas Cowboys (18.33)
  6. Los Angeles Chargers (18.30)
  7. Las Vegas Raiders (18.27)
  8. New Orleans Saints (18.26)
  9. Miami Dolphins (18.22)
  10. San Francisco 49ers (18.18)
  11. Baltimore Ravens (18.12)
  12. Buffalo Bills (18.07)
  13. Denver Broncos (18.04)
  14. Washington Redskins (18.03)
  15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (17.94)
  16. Philadelphia Eagles (17.93)
  17. Tennessee Titans (17.93)
  18. Atlanta Falcons (17.91)
  19. Indianapolis Colts (17.90)
  20. Carolina Panthers (17.85)
  21. Houston Texans (17.85)
  22. Minnesota Vikings (17.85)
  23. Los Angeles Rams (17.84)
  24. Jacksonville Jaguars (17.77)
  25. Detroit Lions (17.75)
  26. New York Giants (17.74)
  27. Kansas City Chiefs (17.72)
  28. Pittsburgh Steelers (17.71)
  29. Seattle Seahawks (17.66)
  30. Green Bay Packers (17.48)
  31. Chicago Bears (17.47)
  32. New England Patriots (17.34)

Some Fun Facts:
  • Without the Saints trading up and taking Tommy Stevens, the Saints grade would have been 18.78, by far the highest (although I like the pick as a guy you draft to stow on your practice squad to eventually take over Taysom's unique role).
  • The Chiefs had the second worst draft last year according to this metric, so this is hardly a measure of success. Meanwhile, the Bengals had one of the best last year and look where they ended up.
  • The Saints were sixth in the rankings last year, so consistency reigns in the Saints draft room (or Zoom meeting I guess).
  • The Saints and the 49ers are the only playoff teams in the top 10 (meaning they of course had lower picks and still made the most of them).
  • The only teams to not pick a player with at least a 19.00 grade were the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks also had by far the worst first round pick.

The rankings using only the top four draft picks of every team (suggested by David Robbins):
  1. New York Jets (19.09)
  2. Miami Dolphins (19.08)
  3. Minnesota Vikings (19.05)
  4. Dallas Cowboys (19.03)
  5. Baltimore Ravens (19.02)
  6. Carolina Panthers (19.01)
  7. Jacksonville Jaguars (19.01)
  8. Cleveland Browns (19.00)
  9. New York Giants (18.81)
  10. Arizona Cardinals (18.78)
  11. Denver Broncos (18.78)
  12. Detroit Lions (18.77)
  13. Cincinnati Bengals (18.76)
  14. Indianapolis Colts (18.75)
  15. Los Angeles Chargers (18.70)
  16. Los Angeles Rams (18.63)
  17. Philadelphia Eagles (18.63)
  18. Las Vegas Raiders (18.55)
  19. San Francisco 49ers (18.54)
  20. Tennessee Titans (18.53)
  21. Buffalo Bills (18.52)
  22. Washington Redskins (18.52)
  23. Atlanta Falcons (18.47)
  24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (18.47)
  25. New England Patriots (18.34)
  26. Kansas City Chiefs (18.27)
  27. New Orleans Saints (18.26)
  28. Chicago Bears (18.25)
  29. Seattle Seahawks (18.21)
  30. Houston Texans (18.20)
  31. Green Bay Packers (18.13)
  32. Pittsburgh Steelers (18.02)
The Saints are rated really lowly on this, however that's almost exclusively due to the Tommy Stevens pick.
 
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rstrauss33

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I love Mike Detillier’s draft guides and have bought them for the last 15 years. It’s great you don’t want reveal all his info but he does actually take post screen shots of the saints picks on twitter.
 
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KingNene

KingNene

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I love Mike Detillier’s draft guides and have bought them for the last 15 years. It’s great you don’t want reveal all his info but he does actually take post screen shots of the saints picks on twitter.
Yeah I know, I just want to play it safe. If I were able to get the approval from Detillier I would post my whole spreadsheet.
 

Saint Greg

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Yeah I know, I just want to play it safe. If I were able to get the approval from Detillier I would post my whole spreadsheet.
He probably wouldn’t care at this point. He was sold out of draft guides a week before the draft. I think he always sells out.
 

TheRamboTX

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Thanks for the work on the numbers OP!

Could you change the formulas in your spreadsheet to just average the top 4 draft picks for each team? I would be curious how the teams rank using that as the measure.

BTW, I also buy Mike D's guide every year. It's a great resource.
 

David Robbins

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With the rapture at hand, its best you read the bible anyway! :hihi:
Do - extensively - every day. One day, many will wish they did as well. And yes, the Rapture is near. Read Matthew Chpt 24. The last sign - and when this gospel is preached in every nation, then the end will come. Believe this is already happening. Then, there is the Pan Demic - another major sign, along with all the Earthquakes. You can offer persecution all you want, but it will happen.
 
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KingNene

KingNene

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Thanks for the work on the numbers OP!

Could you change the formulas in your spreadsheet to just average the top 4 draft picks for each team? I would be curious how the teams rank using that as the measure.

BTW, I also buy Mike D's guide every year. It's a great resource.
That's actually a great idea. Let me on that.
 

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