Vegas payout on Payton to Cardinals just dropped by more than half (Odds now removed completely from the book) (1 Viewer)


“I know that Arizona is doing some resetting,” Rapoport said on the Pat McAfee Show. “So Arizona will either work to hire Sean Payton or bring in one of those other candidates for a second interview.”

So, what does that mean? I think it’s safe to say that the Cardinals and Payton are deciding if they want to dance. The money may not be as much of an obstacle as the compensation to the New Orleans Saints.

Remember, the Saints started big in their demands, stating they wanted one or two first round picks for Sean Payton. That of course was when Payton was getting looks from the Cardinals as well as the Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos and Houston Texans.

For Payton, it’s not a huge deal, but for the Saints they could lose any leverage they have left in negotiations. A team signing Payton this year is getting two years of buyout, while next year is the final year on his contract.

The Saints may be able to get a day three pick next year, but it won’t be nearly as good as what they could get this year, likely a day two pick.

So now, we wait. What happens next will determine if the Cardinals are signing Sean Payton or going forward with Brian Flores, Ejiro Evero or Aaron Glenn.
Good lord, I’d put him on the shelf for 2nd or 3rd day pick just on principle. He could remain retired until we battle it out in court and I’d put so many motions in that I’d take years to resolve. Team would be fools not to get what they a 1st and more. At this point the team loses nothing by keeping him retired. This season, next season and Payton has shallower pockets than Gayle to fight it out. Don’t sign the contract for the time and weasel out with a fake retirement.
 
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My take:

1. Loomis can seek anything he wants, but we are not getting a top 10 first-round pick or multiple first-round picks.

2. If I am reading correctly the article on the prior page about the Cardinals "resetting" for Payton, the writer is crazy. The Saints are not going to settle for a single day-two pick, much less a day-three pick next year. The price will be the value of one mid-first-round pick. A 2024 first-round pick is possible with the team acquiring Payton hoping the pick will be low and the Saints hoping it will be high. We made last year with Philadelphia that bet and lost it.

3. If Payton does not sign this year, the Saints should not materially lower their price in 2024. No post-Christmas markdown. If he sits two years, he sits. But come 2025, we lose our contractual rights. There will be no litigation.

4. Let's see what interviews Arizona actually schedules next week. But the possibility that the Cardinals and Saints are negotiating exact terms over the weekend exists.

5. Bill Polian was on Sirius yesterday to talk about the Frank Reich hiring. I am currently in North Carolina and can tell you the Panthers fans are unhappy, though largely because Wilks was not retained. In the interview, however, Polian made a quick comment indicating he liked Bryce Young much more than Kyler Murray.
 
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If Sean is telling the Cards and/or Broncos he needs to think about it over the weekend, that is code for him saying 3 hours of hail marys starting sunday at about 5 in Arrowhead that hopefully ends with Andy Reid hopping on the first soggy cheeseburger float into retirement so he can turn both of them down and chase the dream that is Patrick Mahomes. I think he wants to at least see what it might look like if the Chiefs lose, if theres any chance Reid hints at retiring.

I think a lot of this is SP not being sold on a team, and these teams not being sold on the amount of $ he wants along with the compensation it takes to get him. I think both sides of each situation are hesitant. I think LAC were his target. He wanted Herbert and Los Angeles. Now he feels like he is settling. Maybe he just doesnt want to commit to settling for a job. I just feel that if LAC were open, this would all be over by now. AZ and Den arent grabbing him as THAT opportunity.

But the Chiefs....thats a different beast. They wont have any high value picks they cant send our way that really hurts them. And Payton would likely lower his price for that situation.
 
The Chiefs don't need Payton to win a championship and are not going to give up draft picks for Sean. Any team willing to give up substantial draft compensation, give Sean a huge contract, and give Sean much say over personnel really needs Payton. Something we are seeing in this hiring cycle is that most teams do not want to pay the price it will take to hire Payton. Had the Chargers fired their coach, they may very well have picked someone other than Payton.

And are there any credible reports that Andy Reid may retire after this season? I have seen only speculation on this forum.
 
The Chiefs don't need Payton to win a championship and are not going to give up draft picks for Sean. Any team willing to give up substantial draft compensation, give Sean a huge contract, and give Sean much say over personnel really needs Payton. Something we are seeing in this hiring cycle is that most teams do not want to pay the price it will take to hire Payton. Had the Chargers fired their coach, they may very well have picked someone other than Payton.

And are there any credible reports that Andy Reid may retire after this season? I have seen only speculation on this forum.
There is only a certain type of franchise that would give Payton that paycheck AND give away draft picks.
For as much as Jerry would like Payton back, I guarantee you he’d rather McCarthy. That team lives through the draft.
Arizona is that franchise. I keep saying it, but they need a face for a billboard. It’s the difference between a consistent sell out and being taken over by the away team. The Cardinals will matter in the League for the four or five seasons Payton is there.
 
The Chiefs don't need Payton to win a championship and are not going to give up draft picks for Sean. Any team willing to give up substantial draft compensation, give Sean a huge contract, and give Sean much say over personnel really needs Payton. Something we are seeing in this hiring cycle is that most teams do not want to pay the price it will take to hire Payton. Had the Chargers fired their coach, they may very well have picked someone other than Payton.

And are there any credible reports that Andy Reid may retire after this season? I have seen only speculation on this forum.
The closest I could find was this article that said he has no plans to retire.

https://www.kmbc.com/amp/article/andy-reid-says-retiring-soon-interview/40970601

In my opinion, he doesn’t retire. He might after his contract ends in ‘25, but I don’t see him leaving now. Especially when he has Mahomes. And he’s less than 10 wins from passing Stram as the Chiefs winningest coach.
 

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