Venezuela election controversy discussion (1 Viewer)

SystemShock

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You want fraudulent Latin American elections?
I know very well about fraudulent elections South of the border, especially the ones in México, first hand. Not impressed with your google-fu.

So I have a really simple question for you: Why does the US only cry election fraud when the person who wins is a leftist? Could it be that this really has nothing to do with elections or democracy, but rather with putting in someone friendly to us?
How about, instead of throwing out blanket questions and making it about U.S. intervention South of the border, we stay with the circumstances at hand? This thread is specifically about Venezuela, how Venezuela got be where it is today, the circumstances surrounding Venezuela today.

If you want to discuss U.S. intervention (as well as non-intervention) in Ibero-America, we can discuss it on another thread. After all, not all (non) interventions are created equal... and we'd need to define what do you mean by"leftist".

Maybe Duke shouldn't ask for their money back after all, although the Department of Education (who funded my dissertation fellowship), the Department of State (who funded my first postdoc), and the Department of Defense (who funded my second postdoc) might not be super excited about giving me money in the future.
Congratulations.
 

tomwaits

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It’s a shame that people want to make this into a “Socialism doesn’t work” argument, because it isn’t that. Socialist countries have come out and said what is happening one Venezuela isn’t on account of failed Socialist policies, it has to do with a government being corrupt.
soc.jpg
 

TulsaSaint

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I know very well about fraudulent elections South of the border, especially the ones in México, first hand. Not impressed with your google-fu.
I can provide you links to close to a dozen articles I've published in a variety of media outlets about the election of Bolsonaro, disqualification of Lula, and parliamentary coup against Dilma Rousseff. I watched the situation in Honduras fairly closely. I wasn't paying close attention to Mexico in 2006. But, hey, if you wanna equate being an actual expert with a Google search, go ahead.

How about, instead of throwing out blanket questions and making it about U.S. intervention South of the border, we stay with the circumstances at hand? This thread is specifically about Venezuela, how Venezuela got be where it is today, the circumstances surrounding Venezuela today.
That's quite an easy cop-out, isn't it? What's the point of studying history if every time a situation comes up that's similar to ones in the past, we just say, "None of that matters right now. Let's just stick with the circumstances at hand"? How convenient.
Basically what you're saying is, "Let's not worry about all the times the US did not intervene during fraudulent elections before, because those times don't support my narrative. Instead let's just stick with this one event, because that's the only way I can claim that the intervention is justified and really all about democracy and freedom."
 

SystemShock

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I can provide you links to close to a dozen articles I've published in a variety of media outlets about the election of Bolsonaro, disqualification of Lula, and parliamentary coup against Dilma Rousseff. I watched the situation in Honduras fairly closely. I wasn't paying close attention to Mexico in 2006. But, hey, if you wanna equate being an actual expert with a Google search, go ahead.
Good for you. Still, it is rather silly that you'd list a handful of events as if they mattered in this conversation, or as if you knew something no one else did.

That's quite an easy cop-out, isn't it? What's the point of studying history if every time a situation comes up that's similar to ones in the past, we just say, "None of that matters right now. Let's just stick with the circumstances at hand"? How convenient.
It is not and easy cope-out, and yes, we should stick with the circumstances at hand.

Basically what you're saying is, "Let's not worry about all the times the US did not intervene during fraudulent elections before, because those times don't support my narrative.
No, that is not what I am saying, at all, and I don't have a "narrative". You, on the other hand, seem to have one.

Instead let's just stick with this one event, because that's the only way I can claim that the intervention is justified and really all about democracy and freedom."
We should stick to the event at hand because that is what we are discussing, Venezuela. We are not discussing Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Panama, etc etc etc. We are discussing Venezuela. Again, if you want to discuss overall U.S. intervention South of the border, Europe, the ME, sure, start another thread and we can discuss that. But right now, we are discussing Venezuela.

And I am not claiming any intervention is really all about democracy and freedom. Never had.
 
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El Caliente

El Caliente

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I don’t see how the US intervening in those other countries has anything to do with what is occurring in Venezuela. Maybe it’s just me, maybe it’s just that in this case we have the Lime Group identifying the problem and other countries are stepping up, and now we are getting involved.

This isn’t a WMD situation, where we are sticking our nose where it doesn’t belong in this first place. This is a situation where our neighbors are saying “hey, this blighted home on the corner is bringing down all of our home values, and oh yeah, the raccoons that were once held up in his attic are now in all of our attics, and I saw a family of them eating your roof while you were at work today.”

Everyone wants what’s best for the people of Venezuela. Starvation, lack of medicine, and devaluation of money aren’t in the best interest of the Venezuelan people (or their neighbors).
 

simeon58

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Good for you. Still, it is rather silly that you'd list a handful of events as if they mattered in this conversation, or as if you knew something no one else did.

We should stick to the event at hand because that is what we are discussing, Venezuela. We are not discussing Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Panama, etc etc etc. We are discussing Venezuela. Again, if you want to discuss overall U.S. intervention South of the border, Europe, the ME, sure, start another thread and we can discuss that. But right now, we are discussing Venezuela.

And I am not claiming any intervention is really all about democracy and freedom. Never had.
"Let's remove all nuance and historical analysis from this discussion by setting strict bounds on what can be talked about, so that what I'm saying makes sense. Because if you keep the nuance and historical analysis, what I'm saying falls apart."

You've been using the position of the OAS as evidence for the fraudulence of the election, which is made up of some of the countries @TulsaSaint just explained had some of the same issues many claim Venezuela has. What mental gymnastics are you doing to discredit that information?

Note: You claimed the numbers presented by the CNE were not legitimate; I gave evidence that they were (independent organizations monitoring them), and you posted 6 or so Spanish language articles that didn't mention fudged voting numbers once as a refutation to the sources I provided. The numbers are legitimate, but you don't like how they turned out. An interesting example can be found in the 1990 Haitian presidential election, when Aristide was elected over the US chosen, World Bank candidate (Marc Bazin) in a landslide. The numbers are eerily similar, actually. Aristide got 67% of the vote. What happened after his election is a great example of what happens when the "wrong candidate" is elected.

You're use of the OAS as evidence is suspect because you've failed to mention the recognition of Guaido as interim president is illegal under the OAS Charter (Chapter II, Article 3)

How is inflation a strawman? According to the IMF, the rate of inflation in Venezuela the last 10 years is 10 million % . Yes, 10 million %. The estimate in 2018 alone is that inflation rose 1 million %. And they just keep issuing new currency with less zeroes. And guess who's getting really screwed? The people who always gets screwed over high rates of inflation, poor people.
Here, you failed to mention that part of the reason for the inflation, especially in the last year, is due to devastating sanctions implemented by the United States, which are also illegal under the OAS Charter (Chapter 4, Article 19) and other international treaties. The sanctions are mentioned a total of 0 times in both articles @superchuck500 posted.

The US is not falling into line with the OAS like you've consistently repeated.
Pence Pledged U.S. Backing Before Venezuela Opposition Leader’s Move

The US is the primary driver behind the coup. They are actively trying to fragment the military, going as far as offering amnesty to military leaders if they cooperate. There's nothing democratic going on here, and it's disgusting to insinuate. Guaido himself has some interesting views on democracy. Here he is celebrating Bolsonaro's election:

Also missing in your inflation analysis is the FAO report recognizing Venezuela for halving hunger in the country 2 years ahead of stated goals.

From the beginning you've presented information as if there's one side to this situation. The elections are fraudulent, Maduro is illegitimate, the OAS is right in its condemnation, there's no democracy in Venezuela, the US is disinterestedly tagging along in its support for Guaido, etc.

In reality, it's extremely complex, Venezuela is a polarized society (no more polarized than the US, I should add), and its problems are being exacerbated by an opportunistic superpower looking to capitalize on growing polarization by toppling a regime for absolutely transparent reasons that you refuse to acknowledge. My hope is that through what I've posted here, people will at least question the ridiculous, simplistic narrative being forced on them by major news outlets, and, most importantly, oppose the path of US intervention under any circumstances; a path we know from history will only end in further deterioration and destruction.
 
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B4YOU

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I worry about our good intentions and Trump/Bolton running an “intervention” would be a disaster.

This seems like an internal matter for Venezuela.
 

tomwaits

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I worry about our good intentions and Trump/Bolton running an “intervention” would be a disaster.

This seems like an internal matter for Venezuela.
All of the US presidents who have tried these interventions have been disasters.
Yes, this is an internal matter for Venezuela.
 

superchuck500

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"Let's remove all nuance and historical analysis from this discussion by setting strict bounds on what can be talked about, so that what I'm saying makes sense. Because if you keep the nuance and historical analysis, what I'm saying falls apart."

You've been using the position of the OAS as evidence for the fraudulence of the election, which is made up of some of the countries @TulsaSaint just explained had some of the same issues many claim Venezuela has. What mental gymnastics are you doing to discredit that information?

Note: You claimed the numbers presented by the CNE were not legitimate; I gave evidence that they were (independent organizations monitoring them), and you posted 6 or so Spanish language articles that didn't mention fudged voting numbers once as a refutation to the sources I provided. The numbers are legitimate, but you don't like how they turned out. An interesting example can be found in the 1990 Haitian presidential election, when Aristide was elected over the US chosen, World Bank candidate (Marc Bazin) in a landslide. The numbers are eerily similar, actually. Aristide got 67% of the vote. What happened after his election is a great example of what happens when the "wrong candidate" is elected.

You're use of the OAS as evidence is suspect because you've failed to mention the recognition of Guaido as interim president is illegal under the OAS Charter (Chapter II, Article 3)



Here, you failed to mention that part of the reason for the inflation, especially in the last year, is due to devastating sanctions implemented by the United States, which are also illegal under the OAS Charter (Chapter 4, Article 19) and other international treaties. The sanctions are mentioned a total of 0 times in both articles @superchuck500 posted.

The US is not falling into line with the OAS like you've consistently repeated.
Pence Pledged U.S. Backing Before Venezuela Opposition Leader’s Move

The US is the primary driver behind the coup. They are actively trying to fragment the military, going as far as offering amnesty to military leaders if they cooperate. There's nothing democratic going on here, and it's disgusting to insinuate. Guaido himself has some interesting views on democracy. Here he is celebrating Bolsonaro's election:

Also missing in your inflation analysis is the FAO report recognizing Venezuela for halving hunger in the country 2 years ahead of stated goals.

From the beginning you've presented information as if there's one side to this situation. The elections are fraudulent, Maduro is illegitimate, the OAS is right in its condemnation, there's no democracy in Venezuela, the US is disinterestedly tagging along in its support for Guaido, etc.

In reality, it's extremely complex, Venezuela is a polarized society (no more polarized than the US, I should add), and its problems are being exacerbated by an opportunistic superpower looking to capitalize on growing polarization by toppling a regime for absolutely transparent reasons that you refuse to acknowledge. My hope is that through what I've posted here, people will at least question the ridiculous, simplistic narrative being forced on them by major news outlets, and, most importantly, oppose the path of US intervention under any circumstances; a path we know from history will only end in further deterioration and destruction.
Great post Simeon. It seems that both angles on Venezuela are relying on simplistic views.

And to your point, it is true that you cannot divorce Venezuelan economic woes, at least in the near term (two years) from US sanctions. See, e.g. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/12/why-more-sanctions-wont-help-venezuela/

The question should be what is best for Venezuela and the region, informed with giving proper respect to Venezuela's sovereignty and the will of the people of Venezuela. Some see Chavismo as a social movement, others as a kleptocracy. Maybe both are true.

I don't really know enough to have an informed opinion. I tend to rely on certain sources as more credible than others, but that has its pitfalls too.
 

superchuck500

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All of the US presidents who have tried these interventions have been disasters.
Yes, this is an internal matter for Venezuela.
I don't think it's that simple. If a state is collapsing, sending waves of refugees fleeing from the country in economic ruin, it's not simply an internal matter. Where the internal matter is not being solved by internal forces, it bears consideration of a broader solution.

And these days, is there any such thing as an internal matter? Venezuela's neighbors have policies that impact internal developments in Venezuela, and the US remains capable of substantial influence upon conditions inside Venezuela. So it's one of those things where ideally it's an internal matter, but the reality is that it hasn't been an internal matter for some time.
 

tomwaits

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I don't think it's that simple. If a state is collapsing, sending waves of refugees fleeing from the country in economic ruin, it's not simply an internal matter. Where the internal matter is not being solved by internal forces, it bears consideration of a broader solution.

And these days, is there any such thing as an internal matter? Venezuela's neighbors have policies that impact internal developments in Venezuela, and the US remains capable of substantial influence upon conditions inside Venezuela. So it's one of those things where ideally it's an internal matter, but the reality is that it hasn't been an internal matter for some time.
Ok, so by that logic, if the international community does not like US policy (that is often in violation of international law in such cases as the US illegally being in Syria) foreign heads of state can determine that whoever is US president is not legitimate, back an unelected president instead, and try to sow discourse in the US military to support a coup.
 

superchuck500

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Ok, so by that logic, if the international community does not like US policy (that is often in violation of international law in such cases as the US illegally being in Syria) foreign heads of state can determine that whoever is US president is not legitimate, back an unelected president instead, and try to sow discourse in the US military to support a coup.
No. And I’m not even going to entertain further response that because it grossly mischaracterizes what I said.
 

SystemShock

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"Let's remove all nuance and historical analysis from this discussion by setting strict bounds on what can be talked about, so that what I'm saying makes sense. Because if you keep the nuance and historical analysis, what I'm saying falls apart."
On the contrary. I want to maintain the focus of this discussion on the history of and nuances around the situation in Venezuela.

You've been using the position of the OAS as evidence for the fraudulence of the election, which is made up of some of the countries @TulsaSaint just explained had some of the same issues many claim Venezuela has.
I know about issues in other countries. Nothing Tulsa posted is any sort of news to me.

What mental gymnastics are you doing to discredit that information?
I am not doing any mental gymnastics.

Note: You claimed the numbers presented by the CNE were not legitimate; I gave evidence that they were (independent organizations monitoring them), and you posted 6 or so Spanish language articles that didn't mention fudged voting numbers once as a refutation to the sources I provided. The numbers are legitimate, but you don't like how they turned out.
You gave evidence of nothing. You posted an article from a website that's the equivalent of Breitbart or zerohedge.

An interesting example can be found in the 1990 Haitian presidential election, when Aristide was elected over the US chosen, World Bank candidate (Marc Bazin) in a landslide. The numbers are eerily similar, actually. Aristide got 67% of the vote. What happened after his election is a great example of what happens when the "wrong candidate" is elected.
Again, what are we discussing here? U.S. history, or what's going on in Venezuela?

You're use of the OAS as evidence is suspect because you've failed to mention the recognition of Guaido as interim president is illegal under the OAS Charter (Chapter II, Article 3)
Which statement in Chapter II, article 3?

Here, you failed to mention that part of the reason for the inflation, especially in the last year, is due to devastating sanctions implemented by the United States, which are also illegal under the OAS Charter (Chapter 4, Article 19) and other international treaties. The sanctions are mentioned a total of 0 times in both articles @superchuck500 posted.
It all started with the oil price drop in 2008. It went downhill from there, really, really fast. Sure the recent sanctions don't help, but make no mistake, the inflation crisis in Venezuela is mostly self inflicted. Too many checks written with forward dates, and the deposits never came.

And sanctions by the U.S. are just that, sanctions by the U.S. , and not illegal by anything OAS says. If the U.S. decides not to do business with someone, that's their prerogative.

The US is not falling into line with the OAS like you've consistently repeated.
Pence Pledged U.S. Backing Before Venezuela Opposition Leader’s Move
Cool. Many OAS countries have been at it since before Trump was elected. Perhaps is a cross-term conspiracy...

The US is the primary driver behind the coup. They are actively trying to fragment the military, going as far as offering amnesty to military leaders if they cooperate. There's nothing democratic going on here, and it's disgusting to insinuate. Guaido himself has some interesting views on democracy. Here he is celebrating Bolsonaro's election:
A stretch to call it a coup. Guaido was declared interim president by the Venezuelan Congress, meaning he's the face until that time that somewhat legitimate elections can be held. Of course, that doesn't go beyond removing the current cancer.

Also missing in your inflation analysis is the FAO report recognizing Venezuela for halving hunger in the country 2 years ahead of the deadline.
Interesting...
http://www.fao.org/3/CA2127ES/CA2127ES.pdf

Page 2.


From the beginning you've presented information as if there's one side to this situation. The elections are fraudulent, Maduro is illegitimate, the OAS is right in its condemnation, there's no democracy in Venezuela, the US is disinterestedly tagging along in its support for Guaido, etc.
Well, first, I didn't say the U.S. are disinterestedly tagging along. I said the U.S. didn't initiate this. I reiterate: but for some rare instances, no one South of the border wants to hear the U.S. is intervening anywhere on their own, or spearheading any sort of intervention. The other stuff, yes.

In reality, it's extremely complex, Venezuela is a polarized society (no more polarized than the US, I should add), and its problems are being exacerbated by an opportunistic superpower looking to capitalize on growing polarization by toppling a regime for absolutely transparent reasons that you refuse to acknowledge. My hope is that through what I've posted here, people will at least question the ridiculous, simplistic narrative being forced on them by major news outlets, and, most importantly, oppose the path of US intervention under any circumstances; a path we know from history will only end in further deterioration and destruction.
I think Venezuela is very much capable of exacerbating its own problems. It may be as polarized as the U.S., but their poles are very different from ours. We at least have food to eat and water to drink.

As of today, in the Spanish speaking world, only Cuba (support) and México (AMLO has no balls to say either way) are left in Maduro's corner. Add to that poverty, hunger, human rights violations... I'd say, it goes beyond a ridiculous, simplistic narrative being forced by major news outlets.

What happens after Maduro goes? Who knows. But what happens if Maduro stays, that's bad no matter how you slice it.
 

simeon58

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Again, what are we discussing here? U.S. history, or what's going on in Venezuela?
"What are we discussing?" says the guy telling everyone how to discuss.
They aren't disjoint events. They are intertwined. But I guess I didn't have to explain that.

And sanctions by the U.S. are just that, sanctions by the U.S. , and not illegal by anything OAS says. If the U.S. decides not to do business with someone, that's their prerogative.
Lol my god. You gave yourself away with this one, man. You might've just ripped a hole in the universe.
There are a lot of words that come to mind to describe the absurdity of this statement, but none of them are allowed here.

You want people to take your word and that's fine, but I think I've adequately countered every "argument" you've put forward with sources for curious people to decide on their own. K, bye.


For everyone else, I've attached the 3 reports, that were also attached to the article from "Breitbart" (LOL), issued by the independent organizations that were on the ground monitoring the 2018 presidential election. I urge you to read them yourself.

I further urge everyone reading this to look into the roles John Bolton and Elliot Abrams are playing, then also look at their past involvement in US intervention. They are dangerous and truly murderous individuals. A possible starting point is Abrams' role in the uncontroversial case of Rios Montt, who was convicted of genocide in 2013.
 

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