w-l record. chances of making the playoffs? (1 Viewer)

Jackavelli

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if a nfl team goes 2-0 their chances of making playoffs is 65%. there is a chart for each w-l record, does anybody have a link to that chart?
 

Galbreath34

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That's only since 1990. You can look at the week by week and playoffs on a site like http://pro-football-reference.com and add them up, and Yaniskas quoted the stats for 0-2 and 2-0 since 1990 recently. I don't know of any site that has it pre-rolled though, and google isn't much help.
 

Galbreath34

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For some rep, I'll go through and add them up since 1986 when Benson took over, and do them for 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 and the 0-2, 0-3, 0-4 (for Carolina and Tampa fans).
 
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I'll do my best to be unbiased in the question. Its only week 2 so anything could happen. I'm dissapointed with the so called "depth" of the NFC North this year I don't think a wild card comes out of that division so we're probally looking at a wildcard from both the NFC South and the NFC East. As for the South its obvoius even in week 2 that its between us and you guys. We'll know more about how that'll shape up by the Monday night game in a month.
 
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Galbreath34

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Cool, I started on 1986, then quickly realized the since 1990 is because that's when the playoff format changed :( So wasted some time. I think it'll take a day or two. I'll post the numbers here, and the xls I'll be using. I'm going to do 1-0 through 8-0 and 0-1 through 0-5, just the pure unbeaten and pure winless. I'm assuming there aren't any 9-0's that have missed (though I think some 9-1s have missed), and I'm pretty sure no 0-6 teams have won out.
 

theSpaniard

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http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.html

only has last weeks results right now, but the site is usually updated in the morning. This site is better than the pure probabilities you are calculating because it takes strength of remaining schedule, division/conference record, record of teams in your division/conference, etc. into account.

scroll to the chart at the bottom of this page to see the saints chances of making the playoffs based on their record in the remaining games:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/saintswhatif.html
 
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v3kt0r

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I like to think of it as "We only need to go 8-6 from here on out to make the playoffs."
 

Byzantine

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Considering the fact that the Patriots just went 16-0 in the regular season a couple of years ago, yet lost the Super Bowl, I fail to see how any of this matters.

Forget Statistics....

This team is NOT going to go down easy this year.
 

SaintsIn2009

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I like to think of it as "We only need to go 8-6 from here on out to make the playoffs."

Well, that's would be a huge drop in performance IMO. Yeah, we may make the playoffs, but playing with our backs to the wall.
 

Galbreath34

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Ok, here's the basic numbers:

Any team since we switched to the 12 team playoff format has had a 39.5% chance of making the playoffs (40% random), a 22.2% chance of winning the division (25% random since realignment and even sized divisions), a 13.2% chance of earning a bye (now 12.5% random) and the same chance of making the CCG, a 6.6% chance of appearing in the SB and a 3.3% chance of winning it all.

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 707pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="938"><col style="width: 91pt;" width="121"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 43pt;" width="57"> <col style="width: 41pt;" width="54"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 38pt;" width="50"> <col style="width: 38pt;" width="50"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="43"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="42"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="43"> <col style="width: 56pt;" width="74"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="43"> <col style="width: 56pt;" width="74"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="43"> <col style="width: 44pt;" span="2" width="58"> <tbody><tr style="height: 18.75pt;" height="25"> <td class="xl71" colspan="2" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 139pt;" height="25" width="185">Undefeated Starts</td> <td class="xl67" style="width: 43pt;" width="57">
</td> <td style="width: 41pt;" width="54">
</td> <td class="xl67" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td style="width: 38pt;" width="50">
</td> <td class="xl67" style="width: 38pt;" width="50">
</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" width="43">
</td> <td class="xl67" style="width: 32pt;" width="42">
</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" width="43">
</td> <td class="xl67" style="width: 56pt;" width="74">
</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" width="43">
</td> <td class="xl67" style="width: 56pt;" width="74">
</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" width="43">
</td> <td class="xl67" style="width: 44pt;" width="58">
</td> <td class="xl67" style="width: 44pt;" width="58">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 31.5pt;" height="42"> <td class="xl70" style="height: 31.5pt; width: 91pt;" height="42" width="121">Start (or better)</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Count</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 43pt;" width="57">Made Playoffs</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 41pt;" width="54">MP%</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Won Division</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 38pt;" width="50">WD%</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 38pt;" width="50">Earned Bye</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 32pt;" width="43">EB%</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 32pt;" width="42">Made CCG</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 32pt;" width="43">CG%</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 56pt;" width="74">Superbowl Berth</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 32pt;" width="43">SBA%</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 56pt;" width="74">Superbowl Win</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 32pt;" width="43">SBC%</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 44pt;" width="58">Average Wins</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 44pt;" width="58">Average Losses</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl68" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">1-0</td> <td class="xl67">287</td> <td class="xl67">154</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">53.7%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">88</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">30.7%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">54</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">18.8%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">55</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">19.2%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">31</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">10.8%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">14</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">4.9%</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">9.1</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">6.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl68" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">2-0</td> <td class="xl67">157</td> <td class="xl67">101</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">64.3%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">65</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">41.4%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">45</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">28.7%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">43</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">27.4%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">28</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">17.8%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">13</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">8.3%</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">9.9</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">6.1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl68" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">3-0</td> <td class="xl67">99</td> <td class="xl67">74</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">74.7%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">52</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">52.5%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">36</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">36.4%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">31</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">31.3%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">21</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">21.2%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">10</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">10.1%</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">10.6</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">5.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl68" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">4-0</td> <td class="xl67">56</td> <td class="xl67">47</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">83.9%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">36</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">64.3%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">27</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">48.2%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">25</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">44.6%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">17</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">30.4%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">8</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">14.3%</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">11.3</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">4.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl68" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">5-0</td> <td class="xl67">31</td> <td class="xl67">29</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">93.5%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">25</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">80.6%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">20</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">64.5%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">19</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">61.3%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">14</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">45.2%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">7</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">22.6%</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">12.3</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">3.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl68" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">6-0</td> <td class="xl67">23</td> <td class="xl67">22</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">95.7%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">20</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">87.0%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">18</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">78.3%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">16</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">69.6%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">12</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">52.2%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">7</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">30.4%</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">12.7</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">3.3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl68" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">7-0</td> <td class="xl67">15</td> <td class="xl67">15</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">100.0%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">15</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">100.0%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">13</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">86.7%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">10</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">66.7%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">7</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">46.7%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">4</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">26.7%</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">13.3</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">2.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl68" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td class="xl69">
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 18.75pt;" height="25"> <td class="xl71" style="height: 18.75pt;" height="25">Winless Starts</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> <td class="xl67">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 31.5pt;" height="42"> <td class="xl70" style="height: 31.5pt; width: 91pt;" height="42" width="121">Start (or worse)</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Count</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 43pt;" width="57">Made Playoffs</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 41pt;" width="54">MP%</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Won Division</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 38pt;" width="50">WD%</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 38pt;" width="50">Earned Bye</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 32pt;" width="43">EB%</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 32pt;" width="42">Made CCG</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 32pt;" width="43">CG%</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 56pt;" width="74">Superbowl Berth</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 32pt;" width="43">SBA%</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 56pt;" width="74">Superbowl Win</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 32pt;" width="43">SBC%</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 44pt;" width="58">Average Wins</td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 44pt;" width="58">Average Losses</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl68" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">0-1</td> <td class="xl67">290</td> <td class="xl67">74</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">25.5%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">40</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">13.8%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">22</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">7.6%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">21</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">7.2%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">7</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">2.4%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">5</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">1.7%</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">6.9</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">9.1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl68" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">0-2</td> <td class="xl67">161</td> <td class="xl67">23</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">14.3%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">10</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">6.2%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">5</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">3.1%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">6</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">3.7%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">4</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">2.5%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">3</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">1.9%</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">5.9</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">10.1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl68" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">0-3</td> <td class="xl67">95</td> <td class="xl67">3</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">3.2%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">1</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">1.1%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">0</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">0.0%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">0</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">0.0%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">0</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">0.0%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">0</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">0.0%</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">4.9</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">11.1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl68" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">0-4</td> <td class="xl67">64</td> <td class="xl67">1</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">1.6%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">1</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">1.6%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">0</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">0.0%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">0</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">0.0%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">0</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">0.0%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">0</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">0.0%</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">4.3</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">11.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl68" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">0-5</td> <td class="xl67">37</td> <td class="xl67">0</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">0.0%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">0</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">0.0%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">0</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">0.0%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">0</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">0.0%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">0</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">0.0%</td> <td class="xl67" align="center">0</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">0.0%</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">3.7</td> <td class="xl72" align="center">12.3</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
 

Galbreath34

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The 7-0 1991 Saints and the 2007 Patriots contribute to the anomaly that a 6-1 team is more likely to win the SB than a 7-0 Team.

Another weird thing I noticed along the way is no 8-0 team has failed to go 9-0.

The clever among you may have noticed that the number of 0-1 starts doesn't match the number of 1-0 starts. You can thank Cleveland's return as the 31st team for that.
 

BoNcHiE

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Considering the fact that the Patriots just went 16-0 in the regular season a couple of years ago, yet lost the Super Bowl, I fail to see how any of this matters.

Forget Statistics....

This team is NOT going to go down easy this year.

This is about making the playoffs.

Once you are in anything can happen.
 

striker1064

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epic stats here

It is amazing to me that more teams starting 0-1 have won the division than teams starting 4-0 or better.

EDIT: Thanks blackngold7733, I am an idiot and am looking at the stats wrong.
 
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