w-l record. chances of making the playoffs? (1 Viewer)

striker1064 · Sep 23, 2009

Galbreath34 said:
epic stats here

It is amazing to me that more teams starting 0-1 have won the division than teams starting 4-0 or better.

EDIT: Thanks blackngold7733, I am an idiot and am looking at the stats wrong.

blackngold7733 · Sep 23, 2009

striker1064 said:
<link rel="File-List" href="file:///D:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cbmlandry%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><link rel="themeData" href="file:///D:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cbmlandry%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_themedata.thmx"><link rel="colorSchemeMapping" href="file:///D:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cbmlandry%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_colorschememapping.xml"><style>  </style>

It is amazing to me that more teams starting 0-1 have won the division than teams starting 4-0 or better.

Of course there are more. It's easy to go 0-1 and then anything can happen in the remaining 15 games, versus it's much more unlikely that a team will go 4-0.

"More" doesn't = better. There's just been more cases. Meanwhile the %'s of those who make the playoffs are vastly different.

It's all about percentages :9:

Galbreath34 · Sep 23, 2009

What's not shown is how many of those 0-1 teams wind up 3-1

Generally the final record is .500 after the start. We've had bad seasons ourselves after 5-0 starts and stumbled to 11-5 after going 7-0, but with each win , obviously, your chances improve.

Another thing to note, if you filter to just NFC, 2-0 starting teams go to the playoffs 70.6% of the time. The AFC seems to be better at reeling teams in. At 4-0 it goes to 85.2% (23 of 27).

One interesting stat about the 4 teams now in the NFC south is that 50% of the time 2-0 teams have won the division they were in. Seeing us and Atlanta at 2-0 it seems most likely that will stay at 50%. So we have a long way to go before playoffs are a near certainty.

I forgot to attach the XLS in the earlier post, but here it is. If you know how to use pivot tables, you should have fun finding all kinds of break downs. The raw data list only includes streak starts, so you can't check out what a 5-1 team's chances are, but there are all sorts of other ways to slice the numbers. I'll be posting more of those here later.

Ok, it actually said the xls file is too big. If you want the file PM me, and I'll see what I can do. I could post it as a .rar file, if that would be of use to you, just post a request here.

Galbreath34 · Sep 23, 2009

67 of 128 (52%) division winners survived to the Conference Championship game.
9 of 100 (9%, duh) wild card teams survived to the Conference Championship game.

(Before 2002 the number of WC teams equalled the number of division teams, but now there are 8 div winners and 4 WCs explaining the 28 team difference.)

19 of 152 (37%) of teams playing the first round (WC & Div winners without a Bye) made the CCG.
57 of 76 (75%) of teams with a bye made the CCG.

So earning the bye gives you a huge 2-1 advantage in advancing to the CCG.

18.4% of Bye week teams win the Superbowl. 9.6% of teams without the Bye do it. So the 2-1 advantage holds.

slaym · Sep 27, 2009

theSpaniard said:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.html

only has last weeks results right now, but the site is usually updated in the morning. This site is better than the pure probabilities you are calculating because it takes strength of remaining schedule, division/conference record, record of teams in your division/conference, etc. into account.

scroll to the chart at the bottom of this page to see the saints chances of making the playoffs based on their record in the remaining games:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/saintswhatif.html

Well it looks like at 3-0, we have about a 78% chance of making the playoffs.

Taceo · Sep 27, 2009

slaym said:
Well it looks like at 3-0, we have about a 78% chance of making the playoffs.

Yeah, but according to that link if we win the next 13 games we've only got a 98% chance of earning the top seed in the NFC. :hihi:

jlam · Sep 27, 2009

Jackavelli said:
just added to your rep

So did I.

daybreaker · Sep 28, 2009

It's crazy that going 1-0 has such a noticeable difference over going 0-1 on playoff odds.

Numbers dont lie when looked at objectively like this. Starting 0-1 gives you a MUCH steeper hill to climb than 1-0.

Cincy Saint · Sep 28, 2009

daybreaker said:
It's crazy that going 1-0 has such a noticeable difference over going 0-1 on playoff odds.

Numbers dont lie when looked at objectively like this. Starting 0-1 gives you a MUCH steeper hill to climb than 1-0.

I don't think that's necessarily it. There's a difference between correlation and causation.

I think it's just that when looking at any single game, a team that wins is much more likely to make the playoffs than a team that loses. I'll bet those odds would look similar for any week in the season.

Jackavelli · Oct 18, 2009

93.5 % that's crazy

BoNcHiE · Oct 18, 2009

It's virtually impossible to miss it now when you take into account our remaining schedule.

Mark your calendars. We will be playing mid-Jan.

Galbreath34 · Oct 18, 2009

Seriously, I'm not big on early hype, but if we do beat Miami and Atlanta, we have a very realistic chance at running the table.

Carolina best possible 4-3.
StLouis and Tampa, each best possible 3-6.
Patriots best possible 8-2.

Long shot, but I'm saying I'm starting to give it more than a 0.1% chance, which is a lot more than I've ever given us, including 1991.

Galbreath34 · Oct 18, 2009

Since 1990 (18 seasons), only 9 teams have made it to 8-0 or better (I stopped at 7-0 above). 8 of those 9 times earned a bye, 6 made the CCG, 5 made the SB, and 4 won it all.

So if we make 8-0, historically we'd have a 55.5% chance of making the SB, a 50/50 shot at winning it all and an 11% chance of finishing undefeated.

So winning the next 3 games basically doubles our chances of getting what we all want.

Jackavelli · Nov 3, 2009

100% chance of making playoffs if history is any indicator.

SaintKenKen · Nov 3, 2009

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.html

w-l record. chances of making the playoffs? (1 Viewer)

striker1064

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blackngold7733

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Galbreath34

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Galbreath34

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slaym

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Taceo

Saintastic

jlam

Do you not?

daybreaker

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Cincy Saint

Jackavelli

Sarang Upso

BoNcHiE

Every team's Elixir

Galbreath34

Very Banned

Galbreath34

Very Banned

Jackavelli

Sarang Upso

SaintKenKen

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