Week 13: How To Catch A Tiger By The Tail- Perfect Timing. (1 Viewer)

St. PJ

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Week 13: How To Catch A Tiger By The Tail- Perfect Timing.

The Bengals and Saints have played each other 11 times. They have the series lead over us 6 to 5. We've lost 3 in a row-- Sean Payton's first match-up with Marin Lewis in 2006, Jim Haslett's lets play an injured Aaron Brooks when we need just one more win to get in the playoffs against a 1-13 Bengal team, and in 1996 when Mora resigned. It seems like the Bengals just keep catching us at the right time, even when they are struggling.

If you ask me, the tables are turned, and this is the perfect time to play the Bengals. They are on a very big losing streak, and just seem to find a way to self destruct. The team is filled with egocentric players who get that "not again" look when faced with the smallest bit of adversity. Things snowball pretty quickly when they get that look and those self-fufilling prophesies come true.

The Saints, on the other hand, are starting to get healthy. They are starting to hit their stride on offense, getting those explosive 20+ yard plays in bunches. And the defense is starting to get take-aways. It seems like we're about to catch a tiger by the tail, and this tiger has no bite.

While they have a terrible record, the Bengals can still move the ball. They just have a little problem of scoring more than the other guy-- or more to the point, stopping the other guy from scoring. And they certainly make things harder on themselves with turnovers and penalties. The Bengals have seldomly looked ugly for an entire game though. They either start hot then stink it up in the last 20 minutes, or they stink it up for the first 40 minutes and get hot in the end. They are an enigma.

The problem is probably that they've gotten away from last year's identity. Last year, Cincinatti ran the ball with authority, played stout defense (especially at stopping the run and getting pressure), and minimized mistakes. This year, they prefer trying to pass it more than they should, and they aren't having success running the ball because they aren't fully committed to it. Add to that the injuries they've had on defense, the penalties, turnovers, and big plays they give up, and they find themselves one dimensional before too long. To top it off, they are on their 3rd kicker in 3 weeks. Those of you putting some bad ju-ju on Garrett Hartley for missing against Atlanta need to stop. It could be much worse. Ask the Bengals.

Anyways, it is rumored that Pierre Thomas may be back for this game. Possibly Sharper as well. I'm more excited at having a fully healthy secondary. Jenkins, Sharper, Greer, Porter, Harper, and Robinson make for one hell of a Dime Package. Especially now that everyone's up to speed. I hope Pierre gets a screen or two thrown his way, but I'm more interested in pounding Chris Ivory. And I'm also more interested in how much Reggie has gotten acclimated to game speed since Thanksgiving.

If you thought this offense was dangerous last year, just wait till we have a healthy and up to speed Reggie, Pierre, and Ivory backfield. Sprinkle in a little Julius Jones. Get the TE package going with Jimmy Graham, Jeremy Shockey, and Dave Thomas. Oh, and we got Lance Moore, Meachem, Henderson and Colston to boot.

Over the next few weeks, you will see this offense climb in the rankings back towards that #1 spot where it belongs. And if Cincinatti has trouble stopping Buffalo from scoring, imagine what Drew Brees and Sean Payton will do. I'm predicting a 40 burger. Because the one thing Drew Brees has that Carson Palmer seems to have lost is perfect timing. If they don't take their foot off the pedal like they did against Dallas, it could easily be a career day for Drew Brees.

This game will closely resemble last years season opener against Detroit. I'd pick a higher score, but Sean Payton has shown he has has no fancy for breaking our franchise's single game scoring record over the past few years when one more score of FG would have done it.

Saints 48, Bengals 23.


Stat Time

Offense

4. Saints-- 385 ypg, 5.7 ypp, 24.1 ppg, 50% on 3rd down, 32:27 TOP, -3 turnovers.

22. Bengals-- 329 ypg, 5.0 ypp, 20.5 ppg, 37% 3rd down, 30:28 TOP, -4 turnover margin.

Passing Offense

3. Saints-- 291 ypg, 7.3 ypa, 68.6% completion, 23 td, 15 int, 34 20+ yard passes, 16 sacks given up , 92.7 qb rating.

11. Bengals-- 237 ypg, 6.4 ypa, 59.6% completion, 19 td, 15 int, 27 20+ yard passes, 22 sacks given up, 78.5 qb rating.

Rushing Offense

24. Saints-- 94 ypg, 3.9 ypc, 6 td, 4 fumbles, 4 20+ yard runs

25. Bengals-- 92 ypg, 3.7 ypc, 4 td, 7 fumbles, 3 20+ yard runs

Defense

7. Saints-- 306 ypg, 5.1 ypp, 17.9 ppg, 37% 3rd down

16. Bengals-- 339 ypg, 5.5 ypp, 26.2 ppg, 40% on 3rd down

Pass Defense

3. Saints-- 197 ypg, 6.5 ypa, 62% completion, 7 td, 7 int, 26 20+ yard passes given up, 20 sacks, 79.3 qb rating.

15. Bengals-- 216 ypg, 6.7 ypa, 60.1% completion, 16 td, 13 int, 33 20+ yard passes given up, 12 sacks, 79.7 qb rating.

The Bengals have very little pass rush. 12 sacks through 12 games.

Rush Defense

15. Saints-- 109 ypg, 4.2 ypc, 9 td, 5 fumble recovery, 7 20+ yard runs given up

23. Bengals-- 123 ypg, 4.5 ypc, 11 td, 4 fumble recovery, 14 20+ yard runs given up

The Bengals are equally bad at giving up the 20+ yard play in both run and pass. I think the Saints will run just enough to get a very big lead in the passing game, then you'll see more runs in the 4th quarter when we are trying to ice the game. When they give up 4.5, its hard not to, but with their banged up secondary, Drew will get his fun first, fast and furious.


Pick-Em

Last Week: 11 wins, 5 losses
Season Total: 106 wins, 70 losses

This Week's Picks:

Philidelphia over Houston-- if the Texans didn't leave a sick taste in my mouth, I'd pick the upset here. But Phili is the home team on a short week, and Chicago just bloodied their nose. They are looking for that little guy to take it out on. Houston has a terrible pass defense, and the laser lefty is playing for his next $100 million contract. Go Texans.

New Orleans over Cincinatti-- einy meiny miny mo, catch a tiger by the toe. It can't bite you so we'll say "hey jackwads, its WHO DAT, not who dey".

Chicago over Detroit-- Detroit is down to playing their 3rd or 4th string qb. I'm not sure they know which one they like better. Maybe both will play. It won't matter. Chicago's good fortune continues. I look forward to playing them in the postseason and making Cutler look vintage.

Green Bay over San Francisco-- I really like Troy Smith. And it was nice to see Westbrook say "don't forget about me". Though Green Bay can't run when they need to, they won't need to. I smell a rat.

Jacksonville over Tennessee-- upset #1, subject to change if I hear for certain Kerry Collins will start. I hate having to pick the Jaguars. They were one of my upsets last week, and they just laid an egg in the 4th qtr after beating the Giants for 3.

Kansas City over Denver-- okay, so I picked Denver to win against St. Louis because Orton is red hot, despite the rest of his team. And he almost did it too. But I like the Cheifs running game, I like Arrowhead Stadium, and I like it when Josh McDaniels looks silly. Go Cheifs.

Cleveland over Miami-- upset #2. I think I'd feel better about this pick if Colt McCoy was starting over Jake Delhomme. Seriously. But I admire this team, and I don't care that the game is in Miami, or that the Dolphins get Brandon Marshall back this week. That other Ryan has a good defense too.

Minnesota over Buffalo-- I will probably kick myself for not picking Buffalo. I read tonight that Brett Farve said he was "done". But I'm not sure it means this year or this week. If the Bills win, and this is probably a safer upset pick than any other, Farve just might be done sooner than he thought.

NY Giants over Washington-- Despite missing almost everyone, I'd still take the Giants WR's over Washington's. Kind of feel bad for McNabb. Not too bad though, because I have a vested intrest if Washington/McNabb don't do so well. To the tune of a 3rd round pick. Go G-men. I don't care who wins your division, because I'm not scared.

San Diego over Oakland-- beware, this is a division game. One that is always played very closely. But I can't pick against the Chargers right now. And I especially can't pick Oakland right now. Which means Oakland will probably win.

Indianapolis over Dallas-- the reason I don't pick the Cowboys in an upset is because I don't think Indianapolis is stupid enough to stop throwing the ball. I could see a high scoring game, but I can't see Dallas stopping Manning. They couldn't stop Drew. I just wish we stayed committed to airing it out against the boys, because it worked, and worked well. No way Peyton passes up on a chance at redeeming himself for those recent flurry of ints to try and run some.

St. Louis over Arizona-- to the Cardinals ownership: this is what happens when you don't resign your core players. You are getting what you deserve. I feel bad for their coach, and I feel good for the Rams management in believing in themselves.

Seattle over Carolina-- Carolina is so close to winning a ball game. But I won't pick them again for the rest of the year. End of story.

Atlanta over Tampa Bay-- Though we really need this game to go the other way, I'm picking the Falcons. They are just too balanced and don't make enough mistakes to lose. Tampa just doesn't have enough talent. (Reverse Ju-Ju)

Baltimore over Pittsburg-- Peter King picked the Steelers to win the Superbowl. We all laughed since their first monty would be without Ben Rapeburger. But since Big Ben has come back, they haven't looked as good if you ask me. I think Baltimore wins the division. I think they sweep Pittsburg.

New England over NY Jets-- I almost wish this game would end in a tie, since it's impossible for both teams to lose. But I think the Saints would beat either team in the Superbowl, so it comes down to which team doesn't annoy me the most at this moment. And that's why I'm picking the Patriots to win 27-24.
 

justdave

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I saw on NFLN ATL Carson Palmer talking about the Bengals embracing the role of spoiler.
 
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St. PJ

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I saw on NFLN ATL Carson Palmer talking about the Bengals embracing the role of spoiler.

Did they tell him his team was already spoiled like past due milk and needed to be thrown out?
 

ETSNCO

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Im expecting a career day from colston. Only because the bengals are so horrid in pass Defense. This maybe just a shootout.
 

JuggernautSaint

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Great Read. Id love to see our whole team come in with the gas down and smack the bengals right in the face till we see zeros on the clock.
 
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St. PJ

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Great Read. Id love to see our whole team come in with the gas down and smack the bengals right in the face till we see zeros on the clock.

Part of me says "yeah, yeah, lets go Steve Spurrier on them and run up the score so the media can start giving us some love", and another part of me says "no, no, lets stay secret, under the radar". But my best part says "we aint hiding nothing, though the media don't have a clue, all the other teams and coaches do, so xxxx it, lets show them its Who Dat and not who dey, and lets put them in their place and atone for 2002".
 
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St. PJ

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Talk about perfect timing. When I wrote this last night, I was unaware of yesterday's injury report. Only 3 people: Pierre (who practiced limited), Arnoux and Betts (who did not practice), and that's it!! I can't remember under Sean Payton when the last time was we only had 3 on the injury report, especially this late in the season. The Bengals are about to see a Saints team at full strength-- something we weren't even at last year. Holy!!
 

Paul

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Part of me says "yeah, yeah, lets go Steve Spurrier on them and run up the score so the media can start giving us some love", and another part of me says "no, no, lets stay secret, under the radar". But my best part says "we aint hiding nothing, though the media don't have a clue, all the other teams and coaches do, so xxxx it, lets show them its Who Dat and not who dey, and lets put them in their place and atone for 2002".

The only time I figure an NFL team is running up the score, is if you're up by like 21 points, 1:00 left in the 4th, with the ball, and you're throwing to score. Otherwise, stop us. :hihi:

One thing Payton doesn't do is run up the score - we beat teams, then run to kill the clock, then start taking knees, and that V formation is so sweet - Every. Single. Time.

I want to destroy the Bengals, as I figure it gives the team momentum heading into an important NFC games vs. the Rams, who are also working to win their division. The thing is, I would also like to see a solid game in all three phases, with no sloppiness, no turnovers, with the Saints having that look of a team on a mission. Palmer needs to be lit up a few times, and keep Benson in check. I am looking forward to Sunday.
 

SaintBrad

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This week, I'm a Bucs fan. Yup. Im such a die hard Saints fan, that this week i worry about nothing but the Bucs winning. yup. this guy.

Geaux Bucs!
 

Trav4011

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I hope coach has the team practicing outdoors at night, when it's 30 degrees out! lol.. It'll be cold up there in Cinci!
 
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St. PJ

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Im expecting a career day from colston. Only because the bengals are so horrid in pass Defense. This maybe just a shootout.

The last time we played them, it was a career day for Drew and Devery. Drew set the franchise record throwing for over 500 yards, and Devery had his best day as a pro with about 170 yards recieving.
 

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