Week 4 DVOA ratings (1 Viewer)

BoNcHiE

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These guys are great.

They had one of their writers on NFL network doing the "Top 10 NFL Myths" show. I understand if you aren't a stats guys but their methods are sound.
 

CP

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And, the "strength of schedule" for the remaining teams on the Saints schedule is DEAD LAST right now!
 

Nah 2019

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Awesome - it's like the Bill James for football (for Moneyball fans)
 

Nah 2019

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I love this little excerpt before the actual rankings...

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints: "team" is clearly ranked "too high/too low" because "reason unrelated to DVOA". "subjective ranking system" is way better than this. "unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling"


Great read and site...thanks for the link.
 

Cincy Saint

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And it's a good trend

So are these defenses for real -- particularly the Saints and Broncos, who were so bad on defense last year? I decided to go and look for the defenses with the biggest difference between DVOA one season and DVOA over the first four games of the next season.

only one of these defenses ended up being a fluke: the 2006 Atlanta Falcons.

But these numbers should still worry Steelers fans a little bit, just like those other numbers should give confidence to Broncos and Saints fans.

Historical trends say that the Saints improvement on D is not a fluke and that it will continue through the season.
 

LSSpam

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Awesome - it's like the Bill James for football (for Moneyball fans)

That's the direct inspiration for it.

To be clear, Football is NOT like Baseball, and DVOA will never be as effective as the statistical tools Bill James designed for baseball. You cannot manage an NFL franchise off Football Outsiders like you could run a baseball team off of Bill James' sabermetrics. There's an unbreachable gulf between how you can statistically evaluate football and baseball.

That said, they are a novel and effective tool, one of many, to evaluate and question football on the field. I've always used the site heavily and highly, highly recommend it to any interested in football.
 

Caleb462

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That's the direct inspiration for it.

To be clear, Football is NOT like Baseball, and DVOA will never be as effective as the statistical tools Bill James designed for baseball. You cannot manage an NFL franchise off Football Outsiders like you could run a baseball team off of Bill James' sabermetrics. There's an unbreachable gulf between how you can statistically evaluate football and baseball.

That said, they are a novel and effective tool, one of many, to evaluate and question football on the field. I've always used the site heavily and highly, highly recommend it to any interested in football.

I agree with all that. Of the three major sports, baseball is the sport that lends itself most to statistical analysis. Then basketball, *then* football.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/ is another great site.
 

saintmike23

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We are ranked 19th on special teams. Have to get better in that department.

Carolina's offense and defense is ranked 31st and 27th respectively. Good luck getting out of that hole. They could have a record down year. Even their special teams is ranked low at 30th.

This site proves what we all knew, the Saints are the best team in football right now.
 
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Nah 2019

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That's the direct inspiration for it.

To be clear, Football is NOT like Baseball, and DVOA will never be as effective as the statistical tools Bill James designed for baseball. You cannot manage an NFL franchise off Football Outsiders like you could run a baseball team off of Bill James' sabermetrics. There's an unbreachable gulf between how you can statistically evaluate football and baseball.

That said, they are a novel and effective tool, one of many, to evaluate and question football on the field. I've always used the site heavily and highly, highly recommend it to any interested in football.

Understandable...more about retroactive evaluation in football and not predictiing and forecasting in baseball.

Could give a small advantage to the bettors out there though. ;)
 

saintmike23

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Here's the best part for people who haven't read the DVOA article.

The Saints are playing the best when it matters the most!

ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

We are ranked number 1 in Estimated Wins.

We have played the 19th hardest schedule based on DVOA.

And we have the EASIEST future schedule based on DVOA!!!

We also have the most consistent DVOA variance from week to week. (most consistent and best = dominant!)

Add all of these factors and we could have one remarkable season.
 

LSSpam

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We are ranked 19th on special teams. Have to get better in that department.

Carolina's offense and defense is ranked 31st and 27th respectively. Good luck getting out of that hole. They could have a record down year. Even their special teams is ranked low at 30th.

This site proves what we all knew, the Saints are the best team in football right now.

Our Special Teams was like 28th or 27th just last week. Morestead's job against Leon Washington significantly boosted that score.
 

Sniper Wolf

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I hate to be the clueless dummy, but what's DVOA?

It's tough to sum up but I'll try:

It's a statistical measurement system that combines two things that aren't commonly factored into normal football statistics: How well the player or team in question did in specific situations, i.e. a RB that got 3 yards on a 3rd and 1 did better than a RB that got 3 yards on a 2nd and 15; and then makes an adjustment based on the opponents that team or player faced.

The reasoning behind it is to basically try to give a bit more accurate view on how good a football team is based on how they preform in specific down and distance situations along with making adjustments based on the squads they faced when they did it. Theoretically, it should would extremely well and I think it does but it, like all other statistical measurements, can't measure intangibles like just downright luck. That and a four week sample size probably isn't as big of one as you'd like to see. Despite all that, the DVOA ratings are usually pretty solid. Honestly, I'm more interested in them than sportswriters power rankings. No offense to the sportswriters but the DVOA has more solid science behind it.
 

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