Week 7 NFL/CFB Betting Thread (2 Viewers)

[BBarnes]

Eagles Team Total Over 22.5

Navy TT Over 9.5 1H -135

Navy TT Over 21.5 +110


NFL 38-34

CFB 50-47

Kickers made slightly over 80% of their kicks from 40-49 yards last season. If the Eagles kicker could make an easy 45 yarder the team total is a winner. Smh. That’s what makes betting totals so hard, so many uncontrollable variables. There was just absolutely no value on the spread either way, from now on if I feel that way maybe I should just lay off lol

1-2 on the night. Navy getting two touchdowns called back killed their team total

 

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They went for 2 in a spot no one ever goes for 2 in. So yeah. My luck’s running out.

It's that analytics crap. I don't remember which season it was, but maybe like two or three years ago they started that whole "if you're down 14, go for two and you still have a chance to tie it later if you don't get it.... but you also have a chance to only be down by 6".

I'm not a fan of it, but no it's not entirely new.

 

[BBarnes]

It's that analytics crap. I don't remember which season it was, but maybe like two or three years ago they started that whole "if you're down 14, go for two and you still have a chance to tie it later if you don't get it.... but you also have a chance to only be down by 6".

I'm not a fan of it, but no it's not entirely new.

Yea it’s happening more and more in CFB and NFL. Hate it too.

 

[BBarnes]

Random, pointless two point conversion costs me the win. That one sucks.

0-1

Started in 2017. Happened 12 times that season and keeps going up. It’s stupid, but it’s here to stay for awhile unfortunately

“With the assumptions that teams convert two-point conversions half of the time and extra points every time, and that the only future score is another touchdown by the trailing teams, Cole’s decision tree outlines how going for two down eight is in most cases, the correct decision late in games. With a successful two-point try after being down eight, you are guaranteed to win in regulation half of the time (given our assumptions). Even if you miss on your first attempt, you still have a 50% shot to convert your second attempt and send the game to overtime. Teams will miss their first attempt and convert their second 25% of the time. Unfortunately, teams will miss both attempts 25% of the time. We see the team will win 50% of the time, lose in regulation 25% of the time, and go to overtime 25% of the time. Now, we assume that an average team would have a .500 winning percentage in overtime, and would therefore win in overtime 12.5% of the time. With this decision tree, we see that an average team can expect a .625 winning percentage (with our assumptions) after deciding to go for two, as opposed to the .500 winning percentage they would have had if they had gone with conventional wisdom, kicking the extra points and flipping a coin in overtime. “

Going For Two Down Eight – Northwestern Sports Analytics Group

sites.northwestern.edu

 

[Taker597]

MSU - 4.5
Texas -4
Bama - 17
Kentucky +21.5
Cinn 1H
Ole Miss -2.5
Syracuse +14.5

 

[BBarnes]

I’ll be on Syracuse tonight. Line is currently 13.5, waiting for the public to drive it up a little more.

 

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I'm on Clemson over 29.5.

Hopefully the end result works out for all of us

 

[Taker597]

I'm on Clemson over 29.5.

Hopefully the end result works out for all of us

I gotten burn one too many times by DJ. So, it's fade Clemson all day for me.

Not really... Lol. I actually like that 29.5 over.

 

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I gotten burn one too many times by DJ. So, it's fade Clemson all day for me.

Not really... Lol. I actually like that 29.5 over.

Well they haven't covered a spread yet......and Syracuse has covered most of theirs, or at least the ones I paid attention to.

I figure at some point there's a coming out party on offense for Clemson........I'm just hopeful I've timed it correctly.

 

[Taker597]

Well they haven't covered a spread yet......and Syracuse has covered most of theirs, or at least the ones I paid attention to.

I figure at some point there's a coming out party on offense for Clemson........I'm just hopeful I've timed it correctly.

Probably gonna switch it up to 1H Syracuse

 

[BBarnes]

Syracuse +14

Syracuse +3.5 1Q small

This would have been a max play for me but too many people liking them which usually isn’t a good thing haha

If their offense can get 20-24 points I think they win SU. Gotta avoid silly turnovers against this bad Clemson offense though (117th offense in the country)

 

[Taker597]

Now Clemson wanna score 80+ yard TD drives.. And make a crazy play on 3rd and 19.


I swear... The craziest sheet happens on my Friday plays

 

[Taker597]

What was that Syracuse ML?

 

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Clemson is just as useless as advertised. Congrats to those who took Syracuse and the points.

 

[Taker597]

Clemson is just as useless as advertised. Congrats to those who took Syracuse and the points.

Yeah... These Friday road favorites have been stinkers