Week 7 Official Betting Thread (1 Viewer)

BoNcHiE

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Bears are 1-5 ATS. Packers are 2-2-1. Bears have lost 2 straight ATS. Packers are 1-1 in last two ATS.

Line movement says Bears to me. For the Packers to go from -9 to -7.5, despite having 75% of the numerical bets on them, means sharps had to be hitting Bears hard with big money to get that kind of reverse line movement.

BUT, the Bears are tough to ever bet on. I've played them twice this year and managed to go 1-1 after hitting them in week 3.

This is probably a good game to skip. I'll see though.
 

Surviving Saint

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I have no idea why Vegas set the line at 9. Rodgers is playing to the likes of Fitzpatrick( got benched). They both have the same stats this year. Hoyer sucks too but GB is missing half the team and a coach. Its been said Rodgers hates McCarthy. I think turmoil means its Bears or nothing.
 
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BoNcHiE

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Other notable trends.

We have 3 teams that are on 5 game winning streaks ATS. That's pretty crazy. Cowboys, Vikings, and Falcons. Bills are on a 4 game ATS streak as well.

Leans:

SD +7 = Falcons are gonna lose ATS eventually and this is a good spot to take a shot against them. SD can hang.

Broncos -7 = I just think they rebound at home. Texans are not a very good team IMO but have had a favorable schedule.

KC -6.5 = I think they give it to us pretty good and we lose by a TD. We've won our last 2 ATS. It's just a bad matchup.

Eagles +2.5 = Vikings off a bye on a 5 game ATS streak...total lock right? Nah, Eagles surprise here just like Detroit did against them.

Dolphins +2 = They are a different team when their OL is healthy. Bills are good but should come back to earth ATS.

49ers +2.5 = They've lost 5 straight ATS. Just a system play.
 
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BoNcHiE

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I have no idea why Vegas set the line at 9. Rodgers is playing to the likes of Fitzpatrick( got benched). They both have the same stats this year. Hoyer sucks too but GB is missing half the team and a coach. Its been said Rodgers hates McCarthy. I think turmoil means its Bears or nothing.
Yep. Noway I'm touching the Packers in this spot with their injuries and struggles.

If I play it's Bears over the key number. Going no play may be the best course of action but it's tough for me to sit out a TNF game.
 

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Other notable trends.

We have 3 teams that are on 5 game winning streaks ATS. That's pretty crazy. Cowboys, Vikings, and Falcons. Bills are on a 4 game ATS streak as well.

Leans:

SD +7 = Falcons are gonna lose ATS eventually and this is a good spot to take a shot against them. SD can hang.

Broncos -7 = I just think they rebound at home. Texans are not a very good team IMO but have had a favorable schedule.

KC -6.5 = I think they give it to us pretty good and we lose by a TD. We've won our last 2 ATS. It's just a bad matchup.

Eagles +2.5 = Vikings off a bye on a 5 game ATS streak...total lock right? Nah, Eagles surprise here just like Detroit did against them.

Dolphins +2 = They are a different team when their OL is healthy. Bills are good but should come back to earth ATS.

49ers +2.5 = They've lost 5 straight ATS. Just a system play.
I like all of them except KC. Brees is 6-1 ATS as an underdog of 6 or more.

Im sure Kubiak wants to stick it the Texans for firing him and give Osweiller all he can handle after saying he should have replaced Manning last year.
 

ArmyDave

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I have the Bears +8 tonight. Rogers is awful and Eddie Lacy is on IR. Come on Brian Hoyer!!
Hoyer is 130 of 189 for 6TD and 0 INT.
Rogers is 109 of 181 for 10TD and 4 INT.
 

Darren B

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I'm not playing tonight's game, but with the reverse line movement it's got to be Bears or nothing.

Not looked at the rest of the week's games yet so will post my leans at the weekend.
 
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BoNcHiE

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Some decent college match ups tonight as well. May take a look.
 
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BoNcHiE

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Bears +7.5
BYU +7

If I add anything late, I'll post the ticket. I think all the dogs are viable plays tonight.
 

MissippiWhoDat

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Took Bears +7.5 too. Far as I can tell RLM is 10-2-2 so far this year. Might shouldn't have counted NE vs Hou or Sea vs ATL. Both were above 60% against at one point, but dropped below 60% by line close.

<table width="597" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2340;width:48pt" width="64"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:3108;width:64pt" width="85"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2340; width:48pt" width="64" span="7"> </colgroup><tbody><tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1706" style="height:15.0pt;width:48pt" width="64" height="20">Pick</td> <td class="xl1706" style="width:64pt" width="85">Against</td> <td class="xl1706" style="width:48pt" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl1706" style="width:48pt" width="64">% against</td> <td class="xl1706" style="width:48pt" width="64">Open</td> <td class="xl1706" style="width:48pt" width="64">Close</td> <td class="xl1706" colspan="2" style="mso-ignore:colspan;width:96pt" width="128">Line movement</td> <td class="xl1706" style="width:48pt" width="64">W/L</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1707" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Week 1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">DET</td> <td>Indy</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">76</td> <td align="right">5</td> <td align="right">2.5</td> <td align="right">2.5</td> <td>
</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Wash</td> <td>Pitt</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">70</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td align="right">2.5</td> <td align="right">0.5</td> <td>
</td> <td>L</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1707" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Week 2</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">MIN</td> <td>GB</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">78</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>
</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1707" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Week 3</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1706" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">NE</td> <td class="xl1706">Hou</td> <td class="xl1706">
</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">58</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">2.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">3.5</td> <td class="xl1706">
</td> <td class="xl1706">W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Balt</td> <td>Jax</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">62</td> <td>PK</td> <td align="right">-2</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td>
</td> <td>P</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Wash</td> <td>NYG</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">65</td> <td align="right">4.5</td> <td align="right">3.5</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>
</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Det</td> <td>GB</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">67</td> <td align="right">7.5</td> <td align="right">6.5</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>
</td> <td>P</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">MN</td> <td>Car</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">62</td> <td align="right">7.5</td> <td align="right">6.5</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>
</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1706" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">LA</td> <td class="xl1706">TB</td> <td class="xl1706">
</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">77</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">5.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">3.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl1706">
</td> <td class="xl1706">W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1706" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Phi</td> <td class="xl1706">Pitt</td> <td class="xl1706">
</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">75</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">5.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">3.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl1706">
</td> <td class="xl1706">W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1706" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">ATL</td> <td class="xl1706">NO</td> <td class="xl1706">
</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">60</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">3.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">2.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl1706">
</td> <td class="xl1706">W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1706" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Buffalo</td> <td class="xl1706">AZ</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">68</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">6.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">5.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">1</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl1706">W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1707" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Week 4</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Week 5</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Atl</td> <td>Denver</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">69</td> <td align="right">7</td> <td align="right">4</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td>
</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1706" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Week 6</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Sea</td> <td>Atl</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">58</td> <td align="right">-6</td> <td align="right">-7</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>
</td> <td>L</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
 

Surviving Saint

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On Prime Time RLM hasnt done well at all. It was something like 8-0 through week 4 I believe where the opposite of RLM won. All the news is about A. Rodgers struggles. If they talk about this before the game Im playing the Packers -whatever.
 
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BoNcHiE

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Added Miami +6.5 late

Adding South A. +9

Taking some shots tonight.
 

Surviving Saint

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After looking at tonights game here are my thoughts. GB doesnt look good because of injuries and Rodgers. They had a decent run defense going before they faced Dallas last week. dallas has the best Oline in the game and a great RB in the making.

This week packers are facing the Bears with Hoyer at QB (an upgrade over Cutler) but still not a great upgrade. Bears dont have the line or defense that Dallas does. Usually on Primetime if you back the elite QB you will win long term. If the Packers come to life it has to be tonight at home with a pumped up crowd. Brett Favre was at the game last week and the Packers normally lose when he is there.

So why shouldnt I bet on GB? Im going to check out espn. They will make my pick for me.
 

wo0dsy1

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I think the line has dropped enough to go on the packers. This is Aaron Rodgers and co against the Chicago Bears at Lambeau on national tv. Come on, if they need any motivation to get back on track, they have all of it tonight.

Yes Lacy injury hurts but they've not rushed for a TD all year, worth remembering that.
 

Outbackjack

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Took Bears +7.5 too. Far as I can tell RLM is 10-2-2 so far this year. Might shouldn't have counted NE vs Hou or Sea vs ATL. Both were above 60% against at one point, but dropped below 60% by line close.

<table width="597" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2340;width:48pt" width="64"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:3108;width:64pt" width="85"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2340; width:48pt" width="64" span="7"> </colgroup><tbody><tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1706" style="height:15.0pt;width:48pt" width="64" height="20">Pick</td> <td class="xl1706" style="width:64pt" width="85">Against</td> <td class="xl1706" style="width:48pt" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl1706" style="width:48pt" width="64">% against</td> <td class="xl1706" style="width:48pt" width="64">Open</td> <td class="xl1706" style="width:48pt" width="64">Close</td> <td class="xl1706" colspan="2" style="mso-ignore:colspan;width:96pt" width="128">Line movement</td> <td class="xl1706" style="width:48pt" width="64">W/L</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1707" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Week 1</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">DET</td> <td>Indy</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">76</td> <td align="right">5</td> <td align="right">2.5</td> <td align="right">2.5</td> <td>
</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Wash</td> <td>Pitt</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">70</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td align="right">2.5</td> <td align="right">0.5</td> <td>
</td> <td>L</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1707" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Week 2</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">MIN</td> <td>GB</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">78</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>
</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1707" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Week 3</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1706" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">NE</td> <td class="xl1706">Hou</td> <td class="xl1706">
</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">58</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">2.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">3.5</td> <td class="xl1706">
</td> <td class="xl1706">W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Balt</td> <td>Jax</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">62</td> <td>PK</td> <td align="right">-2</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td>
</td> <td>P</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Wash</td> <td>NYG</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">65</td> <td align="right">4.5</td> <td align="right">3.5</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>
</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Det</td> <td>GB</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">67</td> <td align="right">7.5</td> <td align="right">6.5</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>
</td> <td>P</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">MN</td> <td>Car</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">62</td> <td align="right">7.5</td> <td align="right">6.5</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>
</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1706" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">LA</td> <td class="xl1706">TB</td> <td class="xl1706">
</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">77</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">5.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">3.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl1706">
</td> <td class="xl1706">W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1706" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Phi</td> <td class="xl1706">Pitt</td> <td class="xl1706">
</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">75</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">5.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">3.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl1706">
</td> <td class="xl1706">W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1706" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">ATL</td> <td class="xl1706">NO</td> <td class="xl1706">
</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">60</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">3.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">2.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl1706">
</td> <td class="xl1706">W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1706" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Buffalo</td> <td class="xl1706">AZ</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">68</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">6.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">5.5</td> <td class="xl1706" align="right">1</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl1706">W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1707" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Week 4</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Week 5</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Atl</td> <td>Denver</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">69</td> <td align="right">7</td> <td align="right">4</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td>
</td> <td>W</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl1706" style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Week 6</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Sea</td> <td>Atl</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">58</td> <td align="right">-6</td> <td align="right">-7</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>
</td> <td>L</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
I would like to understand this....care to put it in layman's terms.

Thanks!!
 

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