FA What about... Randall Cobb? (1 Viewer)

I don't know for sure. Numbers aren't everything, but if you add up the number of targets Ginn and TreQuan got this year (81) it is very similar to how many targets Cobb had (83).

So did Cobb do more with his opportunities than those two? No. Cobb caught 55, Ginn plus Smith caught... 55.

Scheme wise of course, they're totally different players but I see merit in comparing the opportunities players had before anointing them 'better'.

But the scheme fit is everything. He’s really not close to Smith and Ginn. And if we’re just going to look at targets, Kamara had 97 of them. Cobb may be more similar to him than he is to Smith and Ginn, haha.
 
A good point worth bringing up. I would counter with the QB throwing the ball though (and scheme difference as you mentioned). Drew has typically improved receiver catch rates.

I think the fit and price are in our ballpark.
That doesn't change the almost identical targets though. How many more catches per season than 55 do you think the Brees effect would create in 80-ish targets?
 
But the scheme fit is everything. He’s really not close to Smith and Ginn. And if we’re just going to look at targets, Kamara had 97 of them. Cobb may be more similar to him than he is to Smith and Ginn, haha.
But with the same amount of opportunities as Ginn and TQS, he only produced as much as they did. Nothing more.

Kamara had more catches to go with more targets, so I'm not sure how he affects anything in the discussion.
 
I don't know for sure. Numbers aren't everything, but if you add up the number of targets Ginn and TreQuan got this year (81) it is very similar to how many targets Cobb had (83).

So did Cobb do more with his opportunities than those two? No. Cobb caught 55, Ginn plus Smith caught... 55.

Scheme wise of course, they're totally different players but I see merit in comparing the opportunities players had before anointing them 'better'.

Cobb is better than both TQS and Ginn. Those two don’t get targeted that much because one can’t catch and the other can’t get separation. TQS couldn’t get separation with a restraining order. The better the receiver the more times Drew will target them. Our WR corps was the worst in the NFL last season imo. We have one future HOF’er at WR and then a few journeymen.
 
The better the receiver the more times Drew will target them.
I'm not sure I can argue for or against this line of thinking to be honest. I guess I just think that empirically, if one player is being judged as 'better' because we think he'll get more targets, it's not fair to assume those other players couldn't do the same, given how equally they have produced on their 81v83 targets.

If that makes sense ?
 
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That doesn't change the almost identical targets though. How many more catches per season than 55 do you think the Brees effect would create in 80-ish targets?

I do want to mention that it would be Cobb and TQS. Basically him replacing only Ginn. So more targets to WRs (in theory).

I don't know if he would generate a ton more targets in the passing game overall. The resulting receptions wouldn't be a ton more either. My thought is he would take away some of the short dump-offs passes at the los. So more an improvement in yards per reception. That's just my hope with another WR target in general.
 
I do want to mention that it would be Cobb and TQS. Basically him replacing only Ginn. So more targets to WRs (in theory).

I don't know if he would generate a ton more targets in the passing game overall. The resulting receptions wouldn't be a ton more either. My thought is he would take away some of the short dump-offs passes at the los. So more an improvement in yards per reception. That's just my hope with another WR target in general.
But there aren't going to be more targets in total. They will only come from someone else being targeted less. So it's not quite as additive as you might think.

I think we need an effective slot for sure. I don't know if TQS is in line to be the deep threat type player, but he's not the same calibre at that as Ginn has been (2017 being his best at this, but sadly not his regular standard).
 
I'm not sure I can argue for our against this line of training to be honest. I guess I just think that empirically, if one player is being judged as 'better' because we think he'll get more targets, it's not fair to assume those other players couldn't do the same, given how equally they have produced on their 81v83 targets.

If that makes sense ?

It does. Fair points.
I just think that Cobb would get open more than TQS and or Ginn and thus earn Drew’s trust.
 
But there aren't going to be more targets in total. They will only come from someone else being targeted less. So it's not quite as additive as you might think.

I think we need an effective slot for sure. I don't know if TQS is in line to be the deep threat type player, but he's not the same calibre at that as Ginn has been (2017 being his best at this, but sadly not his regular standard).

Yeah I'm there. Same targets in the offense overall. Let's say he has 20 more targets than Ginn from getting open. He takes those from the 150 targets our RB/FBs had where they averaged around 6.5 ypr. He now makes those an 10-11 ypr average. That's the improvement I'm looking for.
 
Targets aren't some fixed metric, they are fluid and vary from season to season, game to game based upon multiple different variables.

Targets can fluctuate based on multiple varying factors, some can be Defensive, coverage based. If you're doubling the #1 on a given play the chances of the #2, #3 option being targeted increase drastically. Sometimes it's progression based, pressure based if a Defense sends a blitz the QB might have to look away from the primary read and throw it immediately to a hot route.. You don't just pre-determine or project something like Targets based on how a scheme is drawn up on a White board..

The general over simplified theory I go by.. is that Running good routes, having a fundamentally sound release off the line, and consistently gaining separation as a receiver gives you the best chance to see increased targets especially with a competent QB. Cobb is a proven slot guy I've seen his body of work with Green Bay and Dallas to know he's good as getting off the LOS, and has the short area quickness to be an effective Slot in this league.
 
But with the same amount of opportunities as Ginn and TQS, he only produced as much as they did. Nothing more.

Kamara had more catches to go with more targets, so I'm not sure how he affects anything in the discussion.

Because they're not at all comparable players.

You also combined two players to compare them to the production of 1. Not to mention, Dak's completion % was almost a full 10 points less than Brees.

Other than the fact they're called "receivers," there's not much that's similar about them.
 
Targets aren't some fixed metric, they are fluid and vary from season to season, game to game based upon multiple different variables.

Targets can fluctuate based on multiple varying factors, some can be Defensive, coverage based. If you're doubling the #1 on a given play the chances of the #2, #3 option being targeted increase drastically. Sometimes it's progression based, pressure based if a Defense sends a blitz the QB might have to look away from the primary read and throw it immediately to a hot route.. You don't just pre-determine or project something like Targets based on how a scheme is drawn up on a White board..

The general over simplified theory I go by.. is that Running good routes, having a fundamentally sound release off the line, and consistently gaining separation as a receiver gives you the best chance to see increased targets especially with a competent QB. Cobb is a proven slot guy I've seen his body of work with Green Bay and Dallas to know he's good as getting off the LOS, and has the short area quickness to be an effective Slot in this league.
I don't disagree with your reasoning much. I just hold to the fact that every target someone gains is a target taken away elsewhere.

And our targets over a three year spread are pretty close to the mean, actually. So it's not varying all that much.

2019 510
2018 483
2017 499

I do agree that having a variety of receiving options on the field who can get it done is the goal and Cobb might well be that option, I think the team liked him last year, but the piling on to say he's so much better than Ginn and TQS doesn't seem to bear out in receptions or targets.

I recall people declaring how many catches Jared Cook would get here, with a much better QB then Carr. But in fact he was getting 101 targets there and only got 65* here, because Gruden really features the TE.

*Modified by injury, though, so who knows his Saints ceiling for sure?
 
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Because they're not at all comparable players.

You also combined two players to compare them to the production of 1. Not to mention, Dak's completion % was almost a full 10 points less than Brees.

Other than the fact they're called "receivers," there's not much that's similar about them.
Agreed the flaw in those comparisons, is that Cobb predominantly played in the Slot in 2019.

Tre'Quan + Ginn lined up on the perimeter X and Z, and had snaps in the Slot as well.


The main problem with the Saints receiving corps of the last couple years is if we look at every receiver position, our best guy to play all three roles was one player.

The Best X on the roster - Michael Thomas
The Best Z on the roster - Michael Thomas
The Best Slot on the roster - also Michael Thomas

that's an incredible testament to Michael Thomas' versatility, and his football IQ to be able to understand and play all 3 receiver positions at a high level; but also limits the passing game in that he can only play 1 of those positions on any given snap.

Just by adding a "capable" quality Z, or Slot that would improve the Offense by taking coverage attention away from Michael Thomas, and makes things easier for the other key Offensive players; Kamara, and Cook by giving them better match-ups and being able to use them more naturally.
 
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Agreed the flaw in those comparisons, is that Cobb predominantly played in the Slot in 2019.

Tre'Quan + Ginn lined up on the perimeter X and Z, and had snaps in the Slot as well.


The main problem with the Saints receiving corps of the last couple years is if we look at every receiver position, our best guy to play all three roles was one player.

The Best X on the roster - Michael Thomas
The Best Z on the roster - Michael Thomas
The Best Slot on the roster - also Michael Thomas

that's an incredible testament to Michael Thomas' versatility, and his football IQ to be able to understand and play all 3 receiver positions at a high level; but also limits the passing game in that he can only play 1 of those positions on any given snap.

Just by adding a "capable" quality Z, or Slot that would improve the Offense by taking coverage attention away from Michael Thomas, and makes things easier the other key Offensive players; Kamara, and Cook by giving them better match-ups and being able to use them more naturally.
Agree with all of this.
 
Agreed the flaw in those comparisons, is that Cobb predominantly played in the Slot in 2019.

Tre'Quan + Ginn lined up on the perimeter X and Z, and had snaps in the Slot as well.


The main problem with the Saints receiving corps of the last couple years is if we look at every receiver position, our best guy to play all three roles was one player.

The Best X on the roster - Michael Thomas
The Best Z on the roster - Michael Thomas
The Best Slot on the roster - also Michael Thomas

that's an incredible testament to Michael Thomas' versatility, and his football IQ to be able to understand and play all 3 receiver positions at a high level; but also limits the passing game in that he can only play 1 of those positions on any given snap.

Just by adding a "capable" quality Z, or Slot that would improve the Offense by taking coverage attention away from Michael Thomas, and makes things easier the other key Offensive players; Kamara, and Cook by giving them better match-ups and being able to use them more naturally.

That's a really good point, too. This allows you to move around MT as a luxury rather than out of necessity.

It takes a different skill to excel in the slot. You could make a case that our best slot option other than MT right now is Kamara.
 

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