What do you think inspired the uprising in Iran (1 Viewer)

[IntenseSaint]

Aside from the Obvious of a stolen election.

What other underlying factors are involved? What has motivated the people of Iran to finally take a stand like they did in 1979?

 

[Ted]

http://saintsreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=112718

 

[IntenseSaint]

Yes this thread is actually a serious discussion of that thread.

 

[blackadder]

Aside from the Obvious of a stolen election.

What other underlying factors are involved? What has motivated the people of Iran to finally take a stand like they did in 1979?

How do we know that it is "obviously" stolen?

I think Ahmadinejad got about 62% of the vote last election. The story is he tallied 62% this time.

What has he done in the interim to become less popular in Iran? By all accounts his popularity has actually risen among the poor and in the provinces outside Tehran. What you are seeing is primarily a Tehran phenomenon, with the more urban and worldy classes taking to the streets.

I don't think we know. But I know we have had de-stabilzation plans for Iran and if it is happneing naturally, we will certainly push that along.

I'm not sure what will change though. They have a new election with international obervers and Ahmadinejad actually wins? Or Mousavi wins and maintains Irans claim to its right to a nuclear program?

What's the diff?

Mousavi himself says he has no desire to overturn the current system but just wants a "fair" election. So, if he really means that, and the current system reamains, and the President really has no military authority, or ultimate authority over nuclear policy, then all this is just academic.

 

[saintfan-n-alex]

Same thing that sparks our questions about the bush election in fla. The acorn involvement in the last presidential election and the
Minn. Election with franken - no desire to have a standardized fault proof election process. - why that is I have no idea but no elected official pushes for it.

Americans don't stand up to "questionable" results as other counties do, probably because many don't vote and many feel it doesn't matter who wins the elected are in it for themselves and for those who got them elected.

 

[Comus]

I am regurgitating but

- a 66% population under the age of 30
- a growing women's movement
- a fraction in the Council
- an increasingly militant Presidency
- etc.

 

[brophy]

Thanks for sending my thread over the levee
(apparently folks have no idea who Karl Rove and Lee Atwater are/were)....


However, is it any wonder how revolution happens?

This didn't happen overnight. You don't send women to universities for higher education for generations and still think you can keep them repressed based on theocratic mores and superstitions.

If you intend to keep a people repressed under religious dogma, you cannot allow them to think for themselves or experience what the world has to offer....just look what happened in 'Footloose'

 

[blackadder]

Thanks for sending my thread over the levee


However, is it any wonder how revolution happens?

This didn't happen overnight. You don't send women to universities for higher education for generations and still think you can keep them repressed based on theocratic mores and superstitions.

If you intend to keep a people repressed under religious dogma, you cannot allow them to think for themselves or experience what the world has to offer....just look what happened in 'Footloose'

Just look at what happend to me once I seen Par-eee.

 

[champ76]

I am regurgitating but

- a 66% population under the age of 30
- a growing women's movement
- a fraction in the Council
- an increasingly militant Presidency
- etc.

All true. The biggest reason for lack of military action against Iran during the Bush presidency was the belief a revolution was in the wings just waiting for a trigger. As BA pointed out, we no doubt have assets in place helping to stoke the flames.

 

[N.O.Bronco]

All true. The biggest reason for lack of military action against Iran during the Bush presidency was the belief a revolution was in the wings just waiting for a trigger. As BA pointed out, we no doubt have assets in place helping to stoke the flames.

Based on what I've read I can't come to that conclusion at all. But I am curious what evidence you have supporting it?

 

[champ76]

Based on what I've read I can't come to that conclusion at all. But I am curious what evidence you have supporting it?

There was a big debate between those supporting military action and those who believed regime change would come from within. I gleaned that from what I read over the course of five years, mostly in conservative journals where the debate was aired. A National Journal article from 2007 describes the Iraq Study Group and how it was set up with the competing interests represented:

" Sources close to the administration's Iran policy say the primary vehicle for U.S. government planning on Iran is the Iran-Syria Policy and Operations Group, an inter-agency body created in early 2006 that includes representatives and Iran specialists from the Office of the Vice President, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the State Department, the Treasury Department, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the National Security Council, and other agencies.

The overall group has four or five subgroups, including a recently combined one that focuses on "public diplomacy and promoting democracy" in Iran. That subgroup doled out some of the $85 million that Congress approved to support pro-democracy efforts in Iran. A second subgroup is devoted exclusively to Syria. A third focuses on counter-terrorism issues, and a fourth has a military agenda. Formally overseen by a steering committee headed by National Security Council Middle East adviser Elliott Abrams and James Jeffrey, the State Department's principal deputy assistant secretary for Near Eastern affairs, the so-called ISOG is managed day to day by David Denehy, a senior adviser at State's Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs and a former official with the International Republican Institute."

http://news.nationaljournal.com/articles/0118nj1.htm

 

[Comus]

I think Ahmadinejad got about 62% of the vote last election. The story is he tallied 62% this time.

I have read much less, closer to 55%

What has he done in the interim to become less popular in Iran? By all accounts his popularity has actually risen among the poor and in the provinces outside Tehran. What you are seeing is primarily a Tehran phenomenon, with the more urban and worldy classes taking to the streets.

There are demonstration outside of Tehran. It isn't as large or widespread but it also gets little media coverage.

You are also getting a lot of women as well.

 

[brophy]

So why were those same voices banging the war drums to initiate aggression AGAINST Iran?

 

[Comus]

All true. The biggest reason for lack of military action against Iran during the Bush presidency was the belief a revolution was in the wings just waiting for a trigger. As BA pointed out, we no doubt have assets in place helping to stoke the flames.

I kind of think this took the US intel folks as much by surprise as it took the rest of the region. I don't see how we would have such keen insight on a closed (to the U.S.) society like Iran and be so far off Iraq.

 

[champ76]

I kind of think this took the US intel folks as much by surprise as it took the rest of the region. I don't see how we would have such keen insight on a closed (to the U.S.) society like Iran and be so far off Iraq.

I think in the last five years we haved worked hard to increase assets within Iran to give us better information on what's going on there. We still have scant knowledge about the nuclear program; that's walled off pretty good. But there is pretty good intel about the sense of the Iraqi population. Remember, there are thousands of Iranians who fled the Revolution but who left family behind. We've seen the extent of communication from within Iran the last few days even with the regime's attempt to stem the flow.

We've had anti-regime Kurds giving problems to Iran for years. I (once again) would bet my heavily mortgaged house some of those rock throwing demonstrators seen on TV are on the CIA payroll.