What Does Our Future Hold? (1 Viewer)

[bradman1965]

It's already been proven that the media and nfl "experts" don't see Drew's numbers and consistency as enough.

I think this has been proven to be the worst metric available for success in any endeavor.

 

[duckjr78]

IMHO, there are a few vital pieces to the Super Bowl puzzle:

There are 6 "Vital" NFL player positions. You must have above average talent at the majority of these positions to compete for a Super Bowl (miracles notwithstanding). Obviously it helps to have elite talent at all these positions, but due to the pay rate of these 6 (the 6 highest, imagine that; proof of concept, if you like) positions, you also need to "get lucky." You need to have a guy or two still on their rookie wage to help offset the cost. Or an aged vet QB who will give team friendly contracts so that other pieces can get signed. Something along those lines. Otherwise you are essentially paying the Franchise tag rate for the 6 highest paid positions and you have used up 93M of your $155M on 6 positions. That makes it awfully tough to fill out the other 47 positions.

The reason for the 6 pieces is that they are the 6 positions that can impact every single "pivotal" play in the game. Two of these positions can actually impact every single play of the game. And all of these positions oppose each other. When you play a game in the playoffs, you WILL face a team that has elite talent at these positions. And if you cannot counter with at least above average talent, you will have to alter your game plan significantly, thus becoming more predictable. This forces you to play a much more mistake free game to be in position to win.

These 2 positions impact every single play of the game:

QB - If you are not elite here, you had better be at all of the other 5 positions. And I mean top 3 in the NFL kinda elite, lol. But, if you are elite at QB, you can be "just" above average at one of two of the other positions. I'll touch on this a bit more later in the post. I don't think I need to explain why (or the numbers that back this up) having an elite QB (or at least one who is capable of playing elite for 3+ games in a row) is really, really essential to winning a Super Bowl. The Saints have one of these.

DT (specifically a 3 technique style of 3 down DT, not really NT) - The other position, besides QB, who can impact every single offensive play. This position is the defensive opposition of the QB. His presence on the field impacts running and passing plays, no matter which direction or distance they go. For one of the best examples of this in recent history, watch highlights of Ndamukong Suh's Big 12 Championship Game performance against Texas in 2009. 12 tackles, 7 for loss, 4.5 sacks. And he disrupted at least 20 other plays. That type of dominance doesn't happen often in the NFL, unless you are a Watt or Donald, but you need to have a guy who can split a double team, push the pocket, and still have the wheels to take good angles against running QB's. The Saints have two of these who are capable of playing at an elite level. One is a rookie and the other is in his prime.

These next 4 positions impact every single "pivotal" play of the game. My definition of the pivotal plays are 3rd and 4th downs where the defense has a chance to get the offense off the field. These are obviously most critical during the 4 and 2 minute drill situations at the end of both halves, when you have a chance to go 2-for-1 on the possessions, or simply win the game:

LT - If you cannot neutralize the opponent's best pass rusher for the vast majority of the pivotal plays with 1-on-1 blocking, you will have 1 less effective receiving option (TE has to chip or what not). This allows the defense to compact towards the LOS making timing routes, short routes, screen plays and draw plays less effective (all type of plays usually run to counter pass rush). Teams are now often putting their best pass rusher over the RT (or at least moving them around) to counter offenses that have an elite LT but below average RT. Two very good tackles are now becoming a necessity, hence the drafting of Peat so highly. The Saints have two of these, and they are both ridiculously young.

Pass Rusher - Your "decent" defense simply will not beat a decent offense on 4 straight downs to close out a game on a regular basis without a pass rush. Not with the way the rules are skewed so far in favor of the offense in today's game. They really shouldn't even call it the 2 Minute Drill anymore, since you see week after week teams getting the ball with <30 seconds and still getting the score they need to tie or win the game. Anyway, in the "2 Minute Drill", sacks are THE gold standard play for the defense. They keep the clock running (or burn a TO), use up a down, AND cost the offense yardage. The trifecta of terrible for an offense in the 2 Minute Drill. Heck, penalties and incomplete passes only accomplish one of these 3 major setbacks, while runs and complete passes do 1 or sometimes two, but very, very rarely all three. The sack is what you almost have to get, unless you have a lead requiring a TD or more, the offense has no TO's or very, very little time (<15 seconds?), or the ball is starting very, very deep in their own territory. And you will, barring a miracle, face an offense in the 2 Minute Drill to determine the outcome of the game at some point in the playoffs. You MUST get a stop of you won't win the Super Bowl. And a sack is the single biggest common play (non-turnover) towards making that happen. The Saints do not have a #1 pass rusher.

WR - Just like LT (or OT) vs. Pass Rusher, the WR (or in an extremely rare case, TE) vs. #1 CB is a mirror position situation. Simply put, if your guy can win 1-on-1 vs. their guy, the opposition has to make the compensation. Otherwise, you do. And the team that has to make the most compensations will be limited in some other facet of their game plan. The Saints have two of these, both with different skill sets to allow for match ups against different types of #1 CB's. And they are both laughably young AND on their rookie contracts!

#1 CB - Just read this as the inverse of the above WR explanation. If your guy can shut down their guy, you can force them into 2nd/3rd reads and check downs for 1/2 of their passing plays. Most teams have nice #2 and #3 WR's, but you take your chances there as opposed to letting AJ Green, Dez Bryant, or Julio Jones rip your playoff heart out to the tune of 13/175/2 or what not. The Saints have one of these and he is in his prime, unfathomably cheap, AND still improving.


Those are the 6 "vital" positions. Now, the way to look at this is kinda like a "star diagram" with string on the 6 positional points of the star. ie. If you have the string pulled to the furthest point on the QB star (greatest QB ever), then perhaps you don't need elite WR's. Or if you have an "un-sackable" QB (Wilson, Big Ben, Newton), you can get away with just a very good LT. This is why the gigantic, gaping, city-engulfing chasm that the Saints currently have at #1 pass rusher makes for such stressful games. It literally pulls the string from the other 6 positions (imagery here folks, not literally) because they have to play at elite levels to make up for the lack of talent at that position. Then you add in having an LT playing through an injury, one of your 2 DT's out for 8 weeks, and your #1 CB (and #2, #3, #4, & #5, lol) be out for 7 weeks, and you can see why Drew and the WR's have had to play perfectly just to get the Saints to 4-4. No drops, no INT's, no bad routes on 3rd downs, or you lose.

And the intangibles?

Coaching - Much like a HOF QB, you are way more likely to win it all if you have a really good coach who has had previous success in big moments and big games. The Saints have one of these.

Injuries - Either you have to stay relatively injury free, or you have to have them happen at the right time and to the right position groups. This is a constant every year, for every team to reach their potential and it is virtually unpredictable. The only reason I even put it here is because otherwise someone will point out that I didn't.

The favor of the Ginger - I put this here because I firmly believe it is true, even if the Ginger isn't where the buck actually stops. But, if you don't believe as I do, simply ignore this paragraph. That said, I hope Mr. Benson's contribution to the HOF stadium is enough to finally curry the favor of the Ginger. But with Drew's recent comments, I have no idea. I do love the fact that our QB has the stones to say it, hammer of the Ginger be darned. He is literally willing to finish his career with only the 1 Super Bowl ring just to say what every single player is thinking. Because it's the right thing to do. I love #9.

I've posted on here about the Saints' short term future since before the season started. I saw this group of 5 positions being filled with elite talent. EJW pointed out the Saints' affinity for doubling up on these positions. Kikaha & Tull. Williams & Swann. Fairley & Rankins. Armstead & Peat. The front office has seen this and knows that you don't win the Super Bowl because you have the best nose tackle, SLB, FS, or running back. It's because of these positions. Now, you need to have a nice, deep, and well rounded roster to win it, but that is what this year was always about. Find out who are the keepers, where the main holes are, and let the $$$$$ get right (dead $$$) so that you can go get what your #1 need is in FA. Peat, Rankins, Breaux, Cooks, & Thomas are all on their rookie contracts. Bell has made Byrd expendable. Armstead is already locked up. Brees is getting ready to sign a new deal. In other words, there will be a Loomis truck full of cash this off season to throw at whatever pass rusher the Saints believe will put them over the hump. Don't be surprised if they get one in free agency AND draft a Barnett, Williams, Lawson, or the like. They like to "double down."

And then they will make another run (3 years, give or take) with Drew at the helm.

Put some money on the Saints to at least make the Super Bowl in '17 & '18.

It will be money well "spent."

But that's, just like, my opinion, man.