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Afternoon Who Dats,
Last year about this time I decided to avoid knee jerk reactions to drafts by attempting to grade them too early. Truth is can't grade the players, however you can grade the logic/maneuvering based on needs of the team needs. With that being said there are a plethora of factors that can dictate a draft and It's impossible to truly determine the deciding factor in that moment that lead to a particular decision. It truly does take 3 years to know how a draft class will turn out.
Year 1 - Tells you what you have in a player, how he learns, how he applies that learning, and If he will be able to achieve the initial upside you saw in the pick.
Year2 - You know how to use a player. Now that you know how to use him you want to see if he can capitalize on it and make a second year jump.
Year3- Is can he sustain it. How do we best build around him and compliment him.
How would you apply the Above? Take Cooks for instance. When we drafted him we expected an elite Z receiver. We thought we were getting Steven Smith. We also thought he'd be a solid/good punt returner. Once we figured out how to use him we shifted the scheme and moved him to the X receiver position last year. He started off slow but eventually finished with 8TD's and 1000+yds receiving. This year I'd expect him to build off 2015 and either sustain his progress or continue to surpass it.
With that being said lets move on to the Draft.
I gave our overall draft a B grade. It also easily has the potential to be the best draft of the 32 teams when its all said and done. As of now its middle of the pack as I'm taking into consideration that we are still lacking depth wise as a team. When you move up like we did you have to know that sacrificing picks isn't the worst thing. That's minor actually and as you get deeper in the draft the cost isn't as damaging. What you do miss out on is valuable depth. The difference in talent from a 5th rounder to an UDFA when you are looking to fill in an injured position is substantial. So losing two picks hurts whether you can fill it in with UDFA's or not. Borrowing from Peter to pay Paul is also a minor knock.
Round 1 - Sheldon Rankins - DT - Louisville *Likely be the next Kikaha*
What I liked about the pick His Floor/Ceiling are both high where you know you are going to get production out of this pick. He also qualifies as a passrusher. Don't let some of these draft rating website fool you when they say "Saints didn't get a passrusher" because they only qualify passrushers as guys that come off the edge. He is definitely guy with potential to get after the QB and win 1 on 1's to effect the pocket up the middle. It also fit the BPA at a position of need model that you want to apply in the 1st-3rd round before you start to look at purely BPA.
What I didn't like about the pick I need people to understand that we didn't get the next Aaron Donald and because of Rankins being undersized with only above average athleticism he could end up as only a rotational passrusher. We'll know after year 1 if he can hold up against the run and become an eventual 3 down defender. For now he's a sub package starter with base upside and competition for Fairley.
Round 2 - Michael Thomas WR OSU *Biggest Boom/Bust Prospect*
What I liked about the pick At our offenses best we've had a very good cast of WR's/TE's/RB's at Drew's disposal. From the Grahams/Shockeys to the Colstons/Meachems to the Reggies/Sproles. Sprinkle in a little Lance Moore, Billy Miller, Dave and Pierre Thomas, and Kenny Stills and you'll see that we rarely ever hurt for options until recently as the offense has aged due to dumping so many picks into defense. Michael Thomas could easily be the next TO. He could also just as easily be the next Charles Rogers. If he's the former the impact it could have on the offense as a whole is insane. I could go on about how a 40 yd bomb made possible by good Guard play and a deep threat is equivalent to a 40 yd WR screen made possible by good Tackle play and a RAC specialist. However I won't because you either believe that logic or you don't. Regardless his impact could be felt early if he comes along.
What I didn't like about the pick His low output #'s and the rumors that he was unable to grasp the playbook. His #'s are similar to Toon when he came out and the easiest explanation is OSU had a run first offense based around Ezekiel Elliot. He could see a slow development time like Meachem's and could either outright bust like Toon or only develop into a role player ala Meachem. Yet there is also the potential for him to develop into a T.O. like receiver as he has a unique skillset/approach to playing the WR position. Especially the way he runs routes/approaches attacking the ball. He's a different cat.
Round 2 - Vonn Bell - S OSU *Safest Pick*
What I liked about the pick The way the pick made up for not drafting a CB or LB in one swift move. I think everyone here was aware that 3rd S was a need after releasing Bush and never filling that hole. Yet I'm sure most would have agreed we could use a CB and a LB as well. After watching Jack get scooped up by the Jags and then later watching the redskins scoop up Sua Cravens it was time to make a move and go after Bell. With one pick we nabbed a 3rd S, got insurance for Byrd in a year, and then drafted a S/CB/LB because it allows us to move Vaccaro back into that multi purpose role in sub packages. As i pointed out with the Rankins pick while not a base starter he is a starter in the nickel package and it allows you to get the best 11 players on the field. Vaccaro as your NB is better than Swann/Williams/Wilson. Add to the fact that the kid has got ball skills and if the Defense improves as it should he could potential be at the center of a bunch of turnovers.
What i didn't like about the pickLiterally nothing. Its a move that is so subtle and does so many things that there is no way that it doesn't pan out positively. Even if he doesn't turn out to be an elite ball hawk he's still cheaper than Byrd and allows you to go another direction in a year. Just too much goodness with this pick.
Round 4 - David Onyemato - DT Manitoba *The Hidden Gem*
What I liked about the pick Last year we drafted Kikaha then Tull followed by PJ Williams/Swann. Skill positions are hard to hit on and the 3tech position is no different. An over front specifically requires a 3Tech that can play the run/double teams as well as get after the QB. This was an insurance pick with high upside to pair with the Rankins pick. As i mentioned above Rankins has an uphill climb to prove he can be an everydown DT in an over front. Meanwhile Onyemato has the full skillset to become a Kawaan Shortt type 3Tech. He's got the size 6'4 300lbs combined with stoutness/athletic ability that projects well if we can coach up his very raw ability. This is literally an all upside pick with low bust potential only because the cost to move up and get him was minor + he was a 4th round pick. Should he pan out he'd immediately be a starter and force Rankins into a sub package role anyhow which......i know is a dirty word but sub package passrushers are basically starters. If you are upset we missed out on Vernon Butler this guy is a good alternative.
What I didn't like about the pick Players we might have passed on to go and get him at positions of need. Specifically we watched Willie Beavers OT/OG from Western Michigan get taken a pick after us when it was an obvious need. Now obviously they had Onyemata ranked higher as a prospect but if this 4th round pick goes the way of Nick Toon(our last high profile pick) and Willie Beavers is a starter in 3 years while were still looking for a LG this will sting.
Round 7- Daniel Lasco RB- Cal *Possible Camp/Real Beast*
What I liked about the pick High upside [Check] Special Teams contributor[check] BPA[check]Position of need[check]. What a way to close out the draft. This guy was basically a man among boys at the combine killing it in the Vertial/Broad showing ridiculous explosion paired with 4.45 speed, good hands, and solid agility. It's like finding a rich mans CJ Spiller in the 7th round at best and at worst he'll lead your ST's in tackles for the next 3-4 years. Seriously this pick has as much boom potential as Michael Thomas/David Onyemata. He could turn into Pierre/Reggie/Sproles adding another weapon to an offense that has slowly aged and lost effectiveness since 2011.
What I didn't like about the pick Only his injury history is a big question. He wen't for 1000 yards as a RB so the talent is there but this was a low risk pick and one of those late round hits that should make the team. This is important when you look at our drafting history since 2006 and our hit rate on late round prospects. We quite simply didn't have a lot of late round picks that stuck thus hurting our depth and ST's.
With all of that being said at its best we got 3 starters in sub packages[60% of snaps anyway] to with the potential to be full time starters. 1 project that could turn out to be the Jimmy Graham pick of the 2016 draft and 1 Late round prospect that could boom in a big way.
Sheldon Rankins - Ceiling [3Down Starter] Floor [rotational passrusher]
Michael Thomas - Ceiling [Terrell Owens] Floor[Charles Rogers]
Vonn Bell - Ceiling[3down starter/playmaker] Floor [3down starter/average S]
David Onyemata - Ceiling[Kawaan Shortt] Floor [Nick Toon-Off Team]
Daniel Lasco - Ceiling[Pierre Thomas] Floor [Special Teams Demon]
3 out of 5 picks would be winning this draft and based on my own conclusion we have a chance of getting 3 contributors easily. Best case scenario is all hit and there is a real chance that all hit. However to me the safest bet would be Rankins/Bell/Lasco as the 3 that we keep from this draft. Add in nabbing guys like Landon Turner and this draft class could easily make this our best 2 year drafting run since 06--07.
Anyhow, would have liked to have written more but I lost a lot of my thoughts.
Per Usual.......Who Dat!!!
Last year about this time I decided to avoid knee jerk reactions to drafts by attempting to grade them too early. Truth is can't grade the players, however you can grade the logic/maneuvering based on needs of the team needs. With that being said there are a plethora of factors that can dictate a draft and It's impossible to truly determine the deciding factor in that moment that lead to a particular decision. It truly does take 3 years to know how a draft class will turn out.
Year 1 - Tells you what you have in a player, how he learns, how he applies that learning, and If he will be able to achieve the initial upside you saw in the pick.
Year2 - You know how to use a player. Now that you know how to use him you want to see if he can capitalize on it and make a second year jump.
Year3- Is can he sustain it. How do we best build around him and compliment him.
How would you apply the Above? Take Cooks for instance. When we drafted him we expected an elite Z receiver. We thought we were getting Steven Smith. We also thought he'd be a solid/good punt returner. Once we figured out how to use him we shifted the scheme and moved him to the X receiver position last year. He started off slow but eventually finished with 8TD's and 1000+yds receiving. This year I'd expect him to build off 2015 and either sustain his progress or continue to surpass it.
With that being said lets move on to the Draft.
I gave our overall draft a B grade. It also easily has the potential to be the best draft of the 32 teams when its all said and done. As of now its middle of the pack as I'm taking into consideration that we are still lacking depth wise as a team. When you move up like we did you have to know that sacrificing picks isn't the worst thing. That's minor actually and as you get deeper in the draft the cost isn't as damaging. What you do miss out on is valuable depth. The difference in talent from a 5th rounder to an UDFA when you are looking to fill in an injured position is substantial. So losing two picks hurts whether you can fill it in with UDFA's or not. Borrowing from Peter to pay Paul is also a minor knock.
Round 1 - Sheldon Rankins - DT - Louisville *Likely be the next Kikaha*
What I liked about the pick His Floor/Ceiling are both high where you know you are going to get production out of this pick. He also qualifies as a passrusher. Don't let some of these draft rating website fool you when they say "Saints didn't get a passrusher" because they only qualify passrushers as guys that come off the edge. He is definitely guy with potential to get after the QB and win 1 on 1's to effect the pocket up the middle. It also fit the BPA at a position of need model that you want to apply in the 1st-3rd round before you start to look at purely BPA.
What I didn't like about the pick I need people to understand that we didn't get the next Aaron Donald and because of Rankins being undersized with only above average athleticism he could end up as only a rotational passrusher. We'll know after year 1 if he can hold up against the run and become an eventual 3 down defender. For now he's a sub package starter with base upside and competition for Fairley.
Round 2 - Michael Thomas WR OSU *Biggest Boom/Bust Prospect*
What I liked about the pick At our offenses best we've had a very good cast of WR's/TE's/RB's at Drew's disposal. From the Grahams/Shockeys to the Colstons/Meachems to the Reggies/Sproles. Sprinkle in a little Lance Moore, Billy Miller, Dave and Pierre Thomas, and Kenny Stills and you'll see that we rarely ever hurt for options until recently as the offense has aged due to dumping so many picks into defense. Michael Thomas could easily be the next TO. He could also just as easily be the next Charles Rogers. If he's the former the impact it could have on the offense as a whole is insane. I could go on about how a 40 yd bomb made possible by good Guard play and a deep threat is equivalent to a 40 yd WR screen made possible by good Tackle play and a RAC specialist. However I won't because you either believe that logic or you don't. Regardless his impact could be felt early if he comes along.
What I didn't like about the pick His low output #'s and the rumors that he was unable to grasp the playbook. His #'s are similar to Toon when he came out and the easiest explanation is OSU had a run first offense based around Ezekiel Elliot. He could see a slow development time like Meachem's and could either outright bust like Toon or only develop into a role player ala Meachem. Yet there is also the potential for him to develop into a T.O. like receiver as he has a unique skillset/approach to playing the WR position. Especially the way he runs routes/approaches attacking the ball. He's a different cat.
Round 2 - Vonn Bell - S OSU *Safest Pick*
What I liked about the pick The way the pick made up for not drafting a CB or LB in one swift move. I think everyone here was aware that 3rd S was a need after releasing Bush and never filling that hole. Yet I'm sure most would have agreed we could use a CB and a LB as well. After watching Jack get scooped up by the Jags and then later watching the redskins scoop up Sua Cravens it was time to make a move and go after Bell. With one pick we nabbed a 3rd S, got insurance for Byrd in a year, and then drafted a S/CB/LB because it allows us to move Vaccaro back into that multi purpose role in sub packages. As i pointed out with the Rankins pick while not a base starter he is a starter in the nickel package and it allows you to get the best 11 players on the field. Vaccaro as your NB is better than Swann/Williams/Wilson. Add to the fact that the kid has got ball skills and if the Defense improves as it should he could potential be at the center of a bunch of turnovers.
What i didn't like about the pickLiterally nothing. Its a move that is so subtle and does so many things that there is no way that it doesn't pan out positively. Even if he doesn't turn out to be an elite ball hawk he's still cheaper than Byrd and allows you to go another direction in a year. Just too much goodness with this pick.
Round 4 - David Onyemato - DT Manitoba *The Hidden Gem*
What I liked about the pick Last year we drafted Kikaha then Tull followed by PJ Williams/Swann. Skill positions are hard to hit on and the 3tech position is no different. An over front specifically requires a 3Tech that can play the run/double teams as well as get after the QB. This was an insurance pick with high upside to pair with the Rankins pick. As i mentioned above Rankins has an uphill climb to prove he can be an everydown DT in an over front. Meanwhile Onyemato has the full skillset to become a Kawaan Shortt type 3Tech. He's got the size 6'4 300lbs combined with stoutness/athletic ability that projects well if we can coach up his very raw ability. This is literally an all upside pick with low bust potential only because the cost to move up and get him was minor + he was a 4th round pick. Should he pan out he'd immediately be a starter and force Rankins into a sub package role anyhow which......i know is a dirty word but sub package passrushers are basically starters. If you are upset we missed out on Vernon Butler this guy is a good alternative.
What I didn't like about the pick Players we might have passed on to go and get him at positions of need. Specifically we watched Willie Beavers OT/OG from Western Michigan get taken a pick after us when it was an obvious need. Now obviously they had Onyemata ranked higher as a prospect but if this 4th round pick goes the way of Nick Toon(our last high profile pick) and Willie Beavers is a starter in 3 years while were still looking for a LG this will sting.
Round 7- Daniel Lasco RB- Cal *Possible Camp/Real Beast*
What I liked about the pick High upside [Check] Special Teams contributor[check] BPA[check]Position of need[check]. What a way to close out the draft. This guy was basically a man among boys at the combine killing it in the Vertial/Broad showing ridiculous explosion paired with 4.45 speed, good hands, and solid agility. It's like finding a rich mans CJ Spiller in the 7th round at best and at worst he'll lead your ST's in tackles for the next 3-4 years. Seriously this pick has as much boom potential as Michael Thomas/David Onyemata. He could turn into Pierre/Reggie/Sproles adding another weapon to an offense that has slowly aged and lost effectiveness since 2011.
What I didn't like about the pick Only his injury history is a big question. He wen't for 1000 yards as a RB so the talent is there but this was a low risk pick and one of those late round hits that should make the team. This is important when you look at our drafting history since 2006 and our hit rate on late round prospects. We quite simply didn't have a lot of late round picks that stuck thus hurting our depth and ST's.
With all of that being said at its best we got 3 starters in sub packages[60% of snaps anyway] to with the potential to be full time starters. 1 project that could turn out to be the Jimmy Graham pick of the 2016 draft and 1 Late round prospect that could boom in a big way.
Sheldon Rankins - Ceiling [3Down Starter] Floor [rotational passrusher]
Michael Thomas - Ceiling [Terrell Owens] Floor[Charles Rogers]
Vonn Bell - Ceiling[3down starter/playmaker] Floor [3down starter/average S]
David Onyemata - Ceiling[Kawaan Shortt] Floor [Nick Toon-Off Team]
Daniel Lasco - Ceiling[Pierre Thomas] Floor [Special Teams Demon]
3 out of 5 picks would be winning this draft and based on my own conclusion we have a chance of getting 3 contributors easily. Best case scenario is all hit and there is a real chance that all hit. However to me the safest bet would be Rankins/Bell/Lasco as the 3 that we keep from this draft. Add in nabbing guys like Landon Turner and this draft class could easily make this our best 2 year drafting run since 06--07.
Anyhow, would have liked to have written more but I lost a lot of my thoughts.
Per Usual.......Who Dat!!!
